John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The Euro goes bone chilling cold on the other side of the snow event, -10s into the areas with heavy snow cover. Has another freezing rain event in the day 9-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Glad back on line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Second system for early next week has become an ever weakening clipper now. The Euro is the most aggressive with it, giving 1-2 inches of snow to the area. The GFS and Canadian just crap it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Hope its back up and stable for a bit..... Feel lost in the winter without AmericanWX Forums... 18Z NAM running, lets see if the 18Z suite can put some optimism back into this after a yucky 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: Second system for early next week has become an ever weakening clipper now. The Euro is the most aggressive with it, giving 1-2 inches of snow to the area. The GFS and Canadian just crap it out. That says something though, considering it seems to me the Euro usually is the one that has a harder time with clippers. So if it sees it maybe that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Good luck, y'all. We're pulling for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 18Z NAM doesn't look half bad, still a major storm for West and Middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 18Z NAM doesn't look half bad, still a major storm for West and Middle TN. Saw that too, The NAM has been steady the past two days. I hope it ends up being right!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Memphis is a winner on the 18z NAM. Looks like about 10 inches there. I am sure the precip types are greatly inflating the snow totals. Maybe you guys can pound sleet for a while... With the coming cold, it would be like a glacier down that way. Not to mention the possibility to cover it wish a couple of inches of snow early next week. Good luck over that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said: Saw that too, The NAM has been steady the past two days. I hope it ends up being right!! A lot of that though will be sleet and freezing rain. Gotta hope that the cold air deepens quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM gives Memphis about 3-4 inches of snow on the ground. Around 6 for Dyersburg. Lots of freezing rain in the area before the snow starts. I've found a good rule of thumb with the NAM is to cut totals in half. So probably 2-3 inches of snow on top of sleet and around .25-.35 ice in west Tennessee if the NAM solution is the final one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: NAM gives Memphis about 3-4 inches of snow on the ground. Around 6 for Dyersburg. Lots of freezing rain in the area before the snow starts. I've found a good rule of thumb with the NAM is to cut totals in half. So probably 2-3 inches of snow on top of sleet and around .25-.35 ice in west Tennessee if the NAM solution is the final one. Agree, I have been cutting the NAM totals in half for the last 2-3 years. Doing that will serve you well 9 out of 10 times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: NAM gives Memphis about 3-4 inches of snow on the ground. Around 6 for Dyersburg. Lots of freezing rain in the area before the snow starts. I've found a good rule of thumb with the NAM is to cut totals in half. So probably 2-3 inches of snow on top of sleet and around .25-.35 ice in west Tennessee if the NAM solution is the final one. 2-3 inches would be fine by me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I really would like to see the 12Z GEFS score an upset. Like its SLP track out of all the runs today. EDIT: In fact I'll take its SLP track its temps and its qpf for the whole forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The 0z GFS/CMC remind me to check the antifreeze in my truck. Shew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 System 2 early next week drops a little snow over the western forum per the Euro, does more in the east, looks like 1-3 inches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Here is the Euro clown for snow depth. Basically almost everything West of the Plateau falls with Friday's event. Most of what falls from the Plateau east is Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The Euro now has a 3rd event that just crushes SWTN and Northern Miss and Northern Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 If system #2 adds snow to system #1 in Middle Tennessee and northeast Tenn, everybody up there may get new antifreeze and new car batteries for late Holiday gifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Was just noticing system 2 looks a little more stout on 12Z GFS and the center of the High further north a little more out of the way out to hour 78. EDIT: out to 108 looks like a nice nearly forum wide light snow event with good ratios. Wouldn't be surprised for a wide spread 1-3 with some areas more with seriously high ratios. That cold is extreme, snow wouldn't be going anywhere for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Was just noticing system 2 looks a little more stout on 12Z GFS and the center of the High further north a little more out of the way out to hour 78. EDIT: out to 108 looks like a nice nearly forum wide light snow event with good ratios. Wouldn't be surprised for a wide spread 1-3 with some areas more with seriously high ratios. That cold is extreme, snow wouldn't be going anywhere for a while. ....and if I remember correctly, that system almost forms a blizzard for the NE when it phases that energy w/ some on the EC. Then the Euro has one more after that attacks the retreating cold. Crazy times. I still see a warm-up out there...but the 6zGFS and 0z GEPS try to break down the western trough late in the run. The 0z EPS mean won't have any of it as it holds the trough west. Now, the EPS control keeps bring wave after wave of cold no matter the 500 position. I still lean w/ the EPS mean, but blocking at high latitude may fight the very warm MJO phases that are approaching. Still think Jan 20-Feb5 looks about right for a big warmup...w even a chance the cold is delayed in returning. Still, to steal a line from Bob Chill, the cold in Canada has not been bullied by the Pacific often this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 i think the system after the clipper on the Euro is going to look better for a storm on the Southeast. Just a hunch based on the look at hr 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The clipper is a flizzard on the Euro. Went from a promising 2-4 inch state wide system to more of a 1-3 inches in the eastern half of the forum to maybe some snow showers that dust the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 You know the 12z Euro looks like it is getting ready to reload the SE cold via the western trough on d10....basically scoots the cold under the AN heights in Canada. The EPS control did that through d15. That is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I don't get how the clipper for next week is just streaking towards Tennessee out of Missouri laying down 2-4 inches of snow....then it just dies as it arrives. It shouldn't be this hard to get clippers that perform well. I used to hear clipper and get excited because I could lock in 2-4 inches of snow when they approached from Missouri. The second wave looks healthy right now too but it's also having trouble getting into Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The clipper-ish/front on the 18Z GFS still looks pretty good for a northern stream feature at 102. EDIT: Scratch that... All but vanishes the next frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This seems to be turning into a brutal head fake winter for the Eastern Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This seems to be turning into a brutal head fake winter for the Eastern Forum. It's depressing. Especially if we endure another bout of polar desert next week. But I am optimistic about February for some foolhardy reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The models started bouncing towards the clipper connecting with energy in Texas and tapping some moisture from the south. It's what they were first showing when it looked like a 2-4 inch state wide event. The GFS and the Gem were close and the Euro actually connected them. The main effects are south of us on the Euro but it still gave a couple of inches to the area that run. It develops a low that gives the deep south another snow and nails North Carolina too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Posted wrong map but Euro is 2-3 inches for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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