John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS once again with a big ice storm on the far western areas that trends to a nice snow event from Clarksville to the northern plateau and into Kentucky. Sleet, up to 1/2 inch of freezing rain from Nashville west. 1-2 inches of snow across the 40 corridor in Middle TN with 3-5 inch amounts along the Kentucky border. Canadian is 2-5 inches from Nash west to the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks disappointing for my area... maybe next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Does Canadian show anything over Arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 One thing we can take from today is the mods definitely overestimated the WAA in the valley north of 40. Only made it to 34 at my house. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said: Looks disappointing for my area... maybe next week Your area was in great shape on the Euro, which I feel is much better than the other models this year. You get sleet on the Canadian and the GFS takes the LP more east so your area was out on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Models went suppression city with the Monday-Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The warm up don't really impress me.Looks like a more Mid Atlantic ridge than a SER.GEFS looks fairly close to seasonal temps during the warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The warm up don't really impress me.Looks like a more Mid Atlantic ridge than a SER.GEFS looks fairly close to seasonal temps during the warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'M not saying there won't be a warm up also.It's just not real impressive looking to me as if there were to be a SER.We live in the Mid South it's going to warm up sometime in the winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro is further west this run,snow totals got beat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro individual members also west that time. All large events were confined from Nashville west basically on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 00z GEFS LP track for storm one is south central Alabama to Charlotte. That explains the S/E shift on the 00z GFS. I expect a fold of it or the Euro within the next 24-36 hours. Mostly I expect the GFS to fold but will hope it's the Euro as doubtful as that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 06z Nam through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6z gfs moved east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Kentucky said: 06z Nam through 84 No bueno, that indicates a crippling ice storm for middle tn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Gefs stays consistent, takes the surface low east of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 As @weathertree4u mentioned, this shows the Ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 06z Nam through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 UKMET folded to the Euro overnight. Certainly, I like the GFS eastern solution for MBY...but when has the GFS scored this type of coup at this range when it flipped from its earlier solution? Not often. My chips are on the UKMET/CMC/Euro/EPS camp. The GFS/NAM solution is an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It's the 84 hour nam but it's a huge hit for wester n tn/ky and northern Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It's the 84 hour nam but it's a huge it for wester n tn/ky and northern Mississippi Heck Yeah!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It's the 84 hour nam but it's a huge hit for wester n tn/ky and northern Mississippi It’s slowed down about 6 hours also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z NAM 12km hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I have Memphis still in the game, definitely. Started a thread for the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, nrgjeff said: I have Memphis still in the game, definitely. Started a thread for the event... Music to my ears, Thanks Jeff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well it looks like a loaded pattern over the next two weeks. Granted it seems to go out of its way to snow everywhere but East Tennessee, but that's how it goes some winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackbearvol Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nws Memphis, very conservative, Has gone with the Euro. Said the gfs was too fast. Cmc is too slow. They’re forecast discussion is really good this afternoon. Even talking about next Tuesday. Good read funny thing is they pretty much skipped over the next two days .DISCUSSION... Primary forecast concern remains late week wintry precipitation chances, associated with an upper lifting across the southern plains into the lower MS River valley. In the interim, mild and relatively humid conditions will prevail in the warm sector ahead of the approaching low. 12Z medium range models were a little better agreement with respect to the evolution and track of the late week low. The ECMWF model appeared to be good timing and track compromise between the faster GFS and slower Canadian. The ECMWF did deepen the upper low more than the NAM, GFS and Canadian, leading to a slightly slower exit and slightly greater QPF. Expect a transition from rain to sleet to snow behind the upper low. Still too early to determine transition precip type and duration with confidence, but ECMWFsuggests the elevated warm layer to result in a period of sleet- not sufficiently deep to completely melt snow from above, limiting the freezing threat at ground level. Best snow chances should occur in the deformation zone along the north and northwest side of the 500mb low, where NAM depicts fairly strong trof of warm air aloft (TROWAL) wrapping around the top side of the low. This would place areas north of a Forrest city to Oxford and Corinth line in the best position for receiving measurable snow. Accumulations will be dependent on boundary layer temps Friday afternoon. Models have trended colder for the weekend, a likely scenario following measurable snow. ECMWF depicts another snow event next Monday night, developing a baroclinic leaf ahead of an upper trof diving south through the plains. GFS depicts a similar pattern, but with the baroclinic leaf forming over southeast TX and northern LA. Canadian model isn`t too far off the GFS. With the lack of model consensus, have lowered snow chances early next week below the model blend. In any case, below normal temps likely to continue early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Blackbearvol said: Nws Memphis, very conservative, Has gone with the Euro. Said the gfs was too fast. Cmc is too slow. They’re forecast discussion is really good this afternoon. Even talking about next Tuesday. Good read funny thing is they pretty much skipped over the next two days .DISCUSSION... Primary forecast concern remains late week wintry precipitation chances, associated with an upper lifting across the southern plains into the lower MS River valley. In the interim, mild and relatively humid conditions will prevail in the warm sector ahead of the approaching low. 12Z medium range models were a little better agreement with respect to the evolution and track of the late week low. The ECMWF model appeared to be good timing and track compromise between the faster GFS and slower Canadian. The ECMWF did deepen the upper low more than the NAM, GFS and Canadian, leading to a slightly slower exit and slightly greater QPF. Expect a transition from rain to sleet to snow behind the upper low. Still too early to determine transition precip type and duration with confidence, but ECMWFsuggests the elevated warm layer to result in a period of sleet- not sufficiently deep to completely melt snow from above, limiting the freezing threat at ground level. Best snow chances should occur in the deformation zone along the north and northwest side of the 500mb low, where NAM depicts fairly strong trof of warm air aloft (TROWAL) wrapping around the top side of the low. This would place areas north of a Forrest city to Oxford and Corinth line in the best position for receiving measurable snow. Accumulations will be dependent on boundary layer temps Friday afternoon. Models have trended colder for the weekend, a likely scenario following measurable snow. ECMWF depicts another snow event next Monday night, developing a baroclinic leaf ahead of an upper trof diving south through the plains. GFS depicts a similar pattern, but with the baroclinic leaf forming over southeast TX and northern LA. Canadian model isn`t too far off the GFS. With the lack of model consensus, have lowered snow chances early next week below the model blend. In any case, below normal temps likely to continue early next week. I saw this too. Their confidence factor is at a 3 out of 5 on Friday for wintry weather in the mid south. They were at 2 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Blackbearvol said: Nws Memphis, very conservative, Has gone with the Euro. Said the gfs was too fast. Cmc is too slow. They’re forecast discussion is really good this afternoon. Even talking about next Tuesday. Good read funny thing is they pretty much skipped over the next two days .DISCUSSION... Primary forecast concern remains late week wintry precipitation chances, associated with an upper lifting across the southern plains into the lower MS River valley. In the interim, mild and relatively humid conditions will prevail in the warm sector ahead of the approaching low. 12Z medium range models were a little better agreement with respect to the evolution and track of the late week low. The ECMWF model appeared to be good timing and track compromise between the faster GFS and slower Canadian. The ECMWF did deepen the upper low more than the NAM, GFS and Canadian, leading to a slightly slower exit and slightly greater QPF. Expect a transition from rain to sleet to snow behind the upper low. Still too early to determine transition precip type and duration with confidence, but ECMWFsuggests the elevated warm layer to result in a period of sleet- not sufficiently deep to completely melt snow from above, limiting the freezing threat at ground level. Best snow chances should occur in the deformation zone along the north and northwest side of the 500mb low, where NAM depicts fairly strong trof of warm air aloft (TROWAL) wrapping around the top side of the low. This would place areas north of a Forrest city to Oxford and Corinth line in the best position for receiving measurable snow. Accumulations will be dependent on boundary layer temps Friday afternoon. Models have trended colder for the weekend, a likely scenario following measurable snow. ECMWF depicts another snow event next Monday night, developing a baroclinic leaf ahead of an upper trof diving south through the plains. GFS depicts a similar pattern, but with the baroclinic leaf forming over southeast TX and northern LA. Canadian model isn`t too far off the GFS. With the lack of model consensus, have lowered snow chances early next week below the model blend. In any case, below normal temps likely to continue early next week. Outstanding disco. Great find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Second system on the Euro drops 2-4+ inches from Memphis to Bristol with the higher end totals from it being near Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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