John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 If this thing plays out as modeled, it's officially the year of the unlikely snow. It will be the 3rd different event where some place in the south got double or triple their yearly snow average in one event. I can't believe that's ever happened in a given winter. It's like winning the lottery 3 times in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Surprised to models in this much agreement with the western solution. As john was saying...not over for the east yet, but the door is closing. They say you never want to be in the bullseye this far out, right lul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I could see one more decent shift, but the problem is................ the trough going negative as shown on the Euro and EPS is way too early to help east Tennesseans and also southeastern Kentucky guys/gals. Not sure how that changes dramatically enough to help the eastern peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Still plenty of uncertainty about the next ten days. The next vortex that rotates down into the Gulf States gets squirrelly on almost every model as it tries to go negative. It is tough to find any two models or any two runs that handle that energy in a clean, concise way. If forced to choose...I would take a far eastern Valley runner(just west of the Apps). I still will not rule out a more progressive solution to the western Carolinas and then a turn north. My original thinking was a slp just west of Charlotte. Today's operational models are clustered around a middle to east TN slp track. But still...a lot of spread but things quickly gaining focus. Need the UKMET on board though...That is a model that is normally amped which is taking a more progressive route. Also, the Euro is now handling the wondering GOM vortex a bit better though the following vortex still interacts with its remaining surface features a little more than makes sense. The GFS does have a slight interaction. Also, need to see the EPS eliminate the slider cluster of SLPs in order to feel comfortable pushing my chips into the middle TN cutter solution. Now, there is at least one more system behind it before the big warm-up. Pretty active wx pattern evolving right before the switch to warm. Every vortex will need to be watched. I still hold to Jan 20-Feb as the warm-up. I noticed JB has moved off the 10th and is now back into week one of Feb for the return to cold . But there is no guarantee that western trough will budge. It can be stubborn once in place. But as others have opined, there are plenty of teleconnectors that would signal it moving. The CPC MJO site is not updating lately. Makes me wonder if there is a problem w the index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The individual members of the Euro provide plenty of solutions for everyone in the forum area. Of the members that show large snow events there seem to be about equal numbers that show large events for the western 2/3rds of the forum. There are even some that bomb the far NE section of the forum. So there's still a decent spread among ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 John beat me to it. Good post. Still a wide range of solutions w a decent but not yet definitive lean towards western areas. Here is a snapshot of the EPS as it enters our forum area. You can see why it is tough to make a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The mean itself is the section w yellow. You can see that is an Apps runner on the 12z EPS which is east of the operational. A broad area of slp tracks from Louisiana to northern AL/GA, up the Apps, and then to the Maryland Chesapeake region. The EPS has been very solid with that track for several runs despite the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: John beat me to it. Good post. Still a wide range of solutions w a decent but not yet definitive lean towards western areas. Here is a snapshot of the EPS as it enters our forum area. You can see why it is tough to make a call. The op basically took the far western edge of this guidance for it's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: The op basically took the far western edge of this guidance for it's track. That is how I interpreted it as well. Combine that w the UKMET consistency of a track to north Georgia and through western NC, makes me think it might have an eastward jog left. Unlikely it helps MBY, but it has the potential to be a winter storm from the Plateau westward. Nobody is out of the game yet. We may be getting to the point, though, where the operationals are about to lead the ensembles, especially once inside 72 hours. If it gets east if the Apps, whole new ballgame...but I still think middle and west TN are the front runners at this point and may be about to solidify that lead w a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is how I interpreted it as well. Combine that w the UKMET consistency of a track to north Georgia and through western NC, makes me think it might have an eastward jog left. Unlikely it helps MBY, but it has the potential to be a winter storm from the Plateau westward. Nobody is out of the game yet. We may be getting to the point, though, where the operationals are about to lead the ensembles, especially once inside 72 hours. If it gets east if the Apps, whole new ballgame...but I still think middle and west TN are the front runners at this point and may be about to solidify that lead w a few more runs. The GFS was also on the far west side of it's ensemble mean. Maybe they know. If I were betting I'd bet persistence and that would be that my area isn't going to get falling wintry precip. I could see Little Rock to Jackson and points north doing really well. I would like to include Memphis but they have a powerful snow shield at times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwh013170 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 May I ask, what is the latest possibilities for NW Alabama (Florence)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, kwh013170 said: May I ask, what is the latest possibilities for NW Alabama (Florence)? I think you are likely in the same boat with the Plateau. Need a slightly further east track or it is rain. But NW Alabama is definitely still in the game IMO. You all might also need a southerly jog on the models as well. Need that slp to slide to the south and then move northeast once past your. Edit: also check out John’s maps in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, kwh013170 said: May I ask, what is the latest possibilities for NW Alabama (Florence)? Ha man, I admire your tenacity to go through the process of creating an id to ask an imby question...but the page prior sums it. NW Bama could be in a better position, as most models trekking the low too close to you and/or to the west or above you,...a general rule is you want to be positioned to the northwest of a storm as it passes by....the money zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 GFS is very icy for the western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 GFS snows onto the ice in the mid-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Also, the areas that appear to be not getting zr or snow are getting sleet per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 System 2 is just hammering Arkansas. Perfect high coming down the plains while a LP area just churns snow into Arkansas hour after hour next week around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 It seems this thread is a TN Valley subforum record breaker regarding the number of replies. Some nice improvement with regional representation this year. We have regular to semi-regular posters from eight different states. Great to see all of the long time posters involved and also encouraging to see the new posters getting involved. We have been able to track and follow one of the great modern-day, holiday cold snaps of the past 30-40 years. Keep up the great discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 GFS goes bizarre and just kills the high or jets it out at 10x light speed, allows what looks to be a perfect southern slider to flood warmth and most of Tennessee sees rain. I'll side with the Euro once again. Main takeaway is that both have the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Classic winter storm inbound to ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 What happened on the Plateau today? I write in the event obs/discussion thread. Euro shows a TROWAL Friday-Saturday in West Tennessee and West Kentucky. Verbatim everywhere will be too warm except under the comma head. TROWAL is where WAA goes into a cold core from the east or northeast, but it is snow in that cold core. They are hard to forecast and track 3 days out and it's still 5 days out. Verbatim Euro hammers Memphis to Louisville KY and points northwest. I doubt solutions farther east. Heck even a chance the TROWAL fails and/or tracks farther north. It is a mesoscale feature. GFS does not even have it; mainly cold chasing rain. Recommend holding off on a thread for a day or two. System after Tues/Day9 is a positive tilt PVA split north non-starter. Euro weeklies try to get western North America ridging sloshing around Alaska and/or Western US, not set any one place, weeks 5-6. Surface may come in colder than shown. I'd expect another round of cold around the first of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: It seems this thread is a TN Valley subforum record breaker regarding the number of replies. Some nice improvement with regional representation this year. Great to see all of the long time posters involved and also encouraging to see the new posters getting involved. We have been able to track and follow one of the great modern day, holiday cold snaps of the past 30-40 years. Keep up the great discussion. Speaking of that, I still have not gone above freezing yet!! Sitter no at 30 right now. In about an hour and a half, it will be the equivalent of 9 days! Currently 214 1/2hrs at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Euro shows a TROWAL Friday-Saturday in West Tennessee and West Kentucky. Verbatim everywhere will be too warm except under the comma head. TROWAL is where WAA goes into a cold core from the east or northeast, but it is snow in that cold core. They are hard to forecast and track 3 days out and it's still 5 days out. Recommend holding off on a thread for a day or two. Verbatim Euro hammers Memphis to Louisville KY and points northwest. I doubt solutions farther east. Heck even a chance the TROWAL fails and/or tracks farther north. It is a mesoscale feature. GFS does not even have it; mainly cold chasing rain. Euro weeklies try to get western North America ridging sloshing around Alaska and/or Western US, not set any one place, weeks 5-6. Surface may come in colder than shown. I'd expect another round of cold around the first of February. I like that last paragraph. Also, TROWAL...going to tuck that away for future use! Great term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Jed33 said: Speaking of that, I still have not gone above freezing yet!! Sitter no at 30 right now. In about an hour and a half, it will be the equivalent of 9 days! Currently 214 1/2hrs at or below freezing. You didn’t make it yesterday either? Crazy! Like the International Falls of the forum area. When I was a kid, used to always use International Falls as my cold benchmark. If they were not cold, we were not getting cold in Knoxville where I lived as a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 After mostly missing Arkansas with system 1, the GFS repays it with system 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: After mostly missing Arkansas with system 1, the GFS repays it with system 2. Jackpot for Little Rock!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: You didn’t make it yesterday either? Crazy! Like the International Falls of the forum area. When I was a kid, used to always use International Falls as my cold benchmark. If they were not cold, we were not getting cold in Knoxville where I lived as a kid. Haha no. I hit 32 yesterday. I was beginning to think my thermometer was bad, but I see MRX was also 32 as well, so I guess I’m accurate. Wednesday MRX hit 32 and I was 31. Today, I was carefully observing the obs each hour to see if they would go above freezing and as best as I can tell they hit 32 and they are still there. I hit 31 earlier but back to 30 right now. I did loose the ZR though even though I was just slightly below to right around freezing. Just had plain rain after about 1PM, with one final hurrah of ZR around 3 or so. Actually the sun peaked out at 5PM and my wife said she saw a rainbow on the way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 00z Nam through 84 , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS looks similar to the NAM so far. The HP in the Plains isn't what it has been on earlier runs and is much weaker than the European has been advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Canadian runs up the midstate. GFS stays low and cuts up the spine of the Apps. Both solutions are good for the West half of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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