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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Euro looks like the GFS just the low is further west.Good hit for the peeps in Memphis either way

  

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            00Z JAN08
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 00Z 08-JAN                  42.4    35.7    16013   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 08-JAN  42.9    41.6    42.8    40.6    16015   0.06    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 08-JAN  43.1    41.2    41.5    39.8    15011   0.06    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 08-JAN  44.4    40.0    44.4    41.9    12006   0.09    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 09-JAN  45.7    42.3    42.2    41.6    02006   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 09-JAN  42.3    39.8    39.7    39.1    04005   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 09-JAN  39.8    39.0    39.3    38.4    03005   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 09-JAN  48.5    39.1    48.7    43.9    08003   0.00    0.00     100    
WED 00Z 10-JAN  51.4    47.7    47.5    46.0    09002   0.01    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 10-JAN  49.5    47.0    49.6    48.5    15007   0.01    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 10-JAN  53.1    49.6    53.1    52.4    17007   0.01    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 10-JAN  60.2    53.1    59.4    57.4    17008   0.01    0.00      92    
THU 00Z 11-JAN  63.6    59.3    59.6    57.7    15011   0.01    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 11-JAN  60.6    59.5    60.1    56.8    16013   0.00    0.00      86    
THU 12Z 11-JAN  60.2    59.4    59.7    57.6    15014   0.00    0.00      96    
THU 18Z 11-JAN  61.6    59.5    61.4    60.3    16011   0.17    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 12-JAN  61.8    60.6    60.7    59.3    15012   0.04    0.00      70    
FRI 06Z 12-JAN  60.6    57.8    58.1    57.8    13007   0.61    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 12-JAN  58.5    47.2    46.7    46.0    32009   0.24    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 12-JAN  46.7    37.3    37.2    36.0    32011   0.05    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 13-JAN  37.2    33.2    33.1    30.1    28011   0.08    0.02     100    
SAT 06Z 13-JAN  33.1    31.6    32.3    30.0    29011   0.33    0.33      99    
SAT 12Z 13-JAN  32.3    31.2    31.2    24.3    30010   0.00    0.00      77    
SAT 18Z 13-JAN  31.4    30.2    31.4    19.8    33011   0.00    0.00      84    
SUN 00Z 14-JAN  31.5    20.8    19.9    13.4    33006   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 14-JAN  23.2    15.6    19.5    10.1    35007   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 14-JAN  19.5    13.3    13.2     4.2    34005   0.00    0.00      76    
SUN 18Z 14-JAN  19.3    12.8    19.4    -0.6    36006   0.00    0.00      29    
MON 00Z 15-JAN  21.2    15.6    15.4     1.4    36005   0.00    0.00      83    
MON 06Z 15-JAN  17.9    13.0    17.9     1.8    07005   0.00    0.00      83    
MON 12Z 15-JAN  18.4    14.9    15.9    -2.3    08005   0.00    0.00      55    
MON 18Z 15-JAN  30.7    15.2    31.0     3.3    15003   0.00    0.00      90    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  34.4    29.4    29.4    10.8    18004   0.00    0.00      70    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  30.4    27.9    29.4    20.8    20002   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  29.5    28.7    29.4    27.3    10004   0.08    0.05     100    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN  34.7    29.4    34.8    30.7    05003   0.05    0.02     100    
WED 00Z 17-JAN  36.3    34.6    34.9    32.1    08005   0.01    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 17-JAN  40.2    34.9    40.5    35.4    16008   0.00    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 17-JAN  48.4    40.5    48.4    46.5    20011   0.10    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 17-JAN  57.3    48.4    57.6    54.0    20011   0.08    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 18-JAN  59.4    57.2    57.4    56.1    23009   0.20    0.00     100
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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Yep, the EURO and GFS are very close to locking in a big snow event for the western forum. Memphis is close to 4 inches on the Euro. Tight gradient in the west. About 2 counties deep from the Mississippi gets 2-4 inches.

Euro has another system later too that brings wintry weather to the forum area, but of course still far out. Lots of threats swirling about even during the warm up phase we're going to experience.

If this event next weekend comes to pass it'll be wild that the far eastern tier of counties and the far western tier of counties got a significant snow event but the entire rest of the region's snow drought will continue.

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro looks like the GFS just the low is further west.Good hit for the peeps in Memphis either way

  


ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            00Z JAN08
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 00Z 08-JAN                  42.4    35.7    16013   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 08-JAN  42.9    41.6    42.8    40.6    16015   0.06    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 08-JAN  43.1    41.2    41.5    39.8    15011   0.06    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 08-JAN  44.4    40.0    44.4    41.9    12006   0.09    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 09-JAN  45.7    42.3    42.2    41.6    02006   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 09-JAN  42.3    39.8    39.7    39.1    04005   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 09-JAN  39.8    39.0    39.3    38.4    03005   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 09-JAN  48.5    39.1    48.7    43.9    08003   0.00    0.00     100    
WED 00Z 10-JAN  51.4    47.7    47.5    46.0    09002   0.01    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 10-JAN  49.5    47.0    49.6    48.5    15007   0.01    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 10-JAN  53.1    49.6    53.1    52.4    17007   0.01    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 10-JAN  60.2    53.1    59.4    57.4    17008   0.01    0.00      92    
THU 00Z 11-JAN  63.6    59.3    59.6    57.7    15011   0.01    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 11-JAN  60.6    59.5    60.1    56.8    16013   0.00    0.00      86    
THU 12Z 11-JAN  60.2    59.4    59.7    57.6    15014   0.00    0.00      96    
THU 18Z 11-JAN  61.6    59.5    61.4    60.3    16011   0.17    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 12-JAN  61.8    60.6    60.7    59.3    15012   0.04    0.00      70    
FRI 06Z 12-JAN  60.6    57.8    58.1    57.8    13007   0.61    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 12-JAN  58.5    47.2    46.7    46.0    32009   0.24    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 12-JAN  46.7    37.3    37.2    36.0    32011   0.05    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 13-JAN  37.2    33.2    33.1    30.1    28011   0.08    0.02     100    
SAT 06Z 13-JAN  33.1    31.6    32.3    30.0    29011   0.33    0.33      99    
SAT 12Z 13-JAN  32.3    31.2    31.2    24.3    30010   0.00    0.00      77    
SAT 18Z 13-JAN  31.4    30.2    31.4    19.8    33011   0.00    0.00      84    
SUN 00Z 14-JAN  31.5    20.8    19.9    13.4    33006   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 14-JAN  23.2    15.6    19.5    10.1    35007   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 14-JAN  19.5    13.3    13.2     4.2    34005   0.00    0.00      76    
SUN 18Z 14-JAN  19.3    12.8    19.4    -0.6    36006   0.00    0.00      29    
MON 00Z 15-JAN  21.2    15.6    15.4     1.4    36005   0.00    0.00      83    
MON 06Z 15-JAN  17.9    13.0    17.9     1.8    07005   0.00    0.00      83    
MON 12Z 15-JAN  18.4    14.9    15.9    -2.3    08005   0.00    0.00      55    
MON 18Z 15-JAN  30.7    15.2    31.0     3.3    15003   0.00    0.00      90    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  34.4    29.4    29.4    10.8    18004   0.00    0.00      70    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  30.4    27.9    29.4    20.8    20002   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  29.5    28.7    29.4    27.3    10004   0.08    0.05     100    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN  34.7    29.4    34.8    30.7    05003   0.05    0.02     100    
WED 00Z 17-JAN  36.3    34.6    34.9    32.1    08005   0.01    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 17-JAN  40.2    34.9    40.5    35.4    16008   0.00    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 17-JAN  48.4    40.5    48.4    46.5    20011   0.10    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 17-JAN  57.3    48.4    57.6    54.0    20011   0.08    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 18-JAN  59.4    57.2    57.4    56.1    23009   0.20    0.00     100

Just trying not to get too excited about this one yet though seems like a classic snow system for the area - Middle TN that is both in placement and in duration. Around here, we are accustomed to snow every so often that sticks around a day or two, which looks like what this system will do, fingers crossed!

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The entry angle into the Valley is creating a ton of variation....on a much more extreme scale, it is like a hurricane paralleling the southwest Florida coast.  A single change can influence where the storm makes landfall...in this case, we are talking the TN border.  Looked briefly at the EPS.  Still has a couple of clusters for slp locations.  On cluster goes through western TN...another makes a run across the northern areas of the Gulf states w an Apps runner scenario there or far eastern Valley runner.   Too much variation at this point to nail anything down...but seems that folks in the middle and western forum area, north of the TN line needs to watch the weekend.  Eastern areas are not out of it...but the hp is in not hurry.  The temp gradient could be impressive w a cutter west of the Apps.  Could have upper 50s in NE TN w upper 20s in Memphis.  Biggest trends to watch are the 500vort maps.  Every time I think we have a trend, it jumps to another solution.  The slightest change is causing big movements of the slp.  Appears to be even one more behind this weekend's.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Missed out this morning being too far north for wintry precip.  As oddly we and SEKY saw rapid temp rises. Feel like I'm going to be too far East for this.  Back in 2007 or so there were several winter events to that barely missed me in every direction.  There was a snow hole over this county. It finally closed in march and April. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again this year.  

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Missed out this morning being too far north for wintry precip.  As oddly we and SEKY saw rapid temp rises. Feel like I'm going to be too far East for this.  Back in 2007 or so there were several winter events to that barely missed me in every direction.  There was a snow hole over this county. It finally closed in march and April. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again this year.  

Yeah, your area of the Plateau is pretty much money.  If you strike out and everyone else scores...highly unlikely.   Nothing big so far IMBY.  A few light dustings that might add up to .1 inch of snow(frozen and not liquid).  Had a little ZR/sleet today.  Fortunately, I was able to travel to the mountains and see some back in December.  If we get cold back in February, I think we both see some.  Still, not writing off the two chances before the warm-up.  

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, your area of the Plateau is pretty much money.  If you strike out and everyone else scores...highly unlikely.   Nothing big so far IMBY.  A few light dustings that might add up to .1 inch of snow(frozen and not liquid).  Had a little ZR/sleet today.  Fortunately, I was able to travel to the mountains and see some back in December.  If we get cold back in February, I think we both see some.  Still, not writing off the two chances before the warm-up.  

Definitely been an odd winter so far.  SO much cold and not much to show for it.  Gulf coast region and even the southeast coast have had banner snow years and January only just began 8 days ago!  I am hopeful for west and middle TN?) this next system can lay down some white stuff!   That look has been pretty consistent actually the last couple of days now.  Just need a couple of more days to sound the alarm.  Just looking at 500, but we will probably need a thread on it by Wednesday/Thursday..... 

After that, I hope there is another system for areas further east, but it's looking like an extended warmth may not develop for the rest of January.  Sure, we warm this week and again next week after another cold shot, but if the AO tanks I think we will have more cold to deal with before the month is out.  It will be interesting to see how the longer term plays out. 

In the meantime, I think we have some opportunity for snow lovers to score in an overall warmer pattern.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

12Z GEFS. The LP takes 12 hours to cross South Carolina on here. Temps across Tennessee are upper 30s far east, upper 20s far west. Surface freezing line is just east of the Plateau by 120. After meandering the low then shoots towards the DELMARVA over the next 6 hours. Looking at the clusters, many are south and east of the OP throughout the run. Unfortunately the GFS is really really had this year, even inside of 5 days. But there's a definite winter threat somewhere between Knoxville an Little Rock this weekend.

gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_21.png

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

12z UKMET has the low skirting the gulf coast from east central LA through southern AL and into the far western panhandle of FL before being pulled NNE into northwest Georgia and the far western Carolinas.  Just looking at the presentation of the precip maps, I'd guess it's a big snow for parts of west and middle TN (parts of Kentucky too).  That would match some guidance from recent Euro runs.  Should be an interesting weekend...

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Euro is a major winter storm for Arkansas, especially the Eastern half, as well as West Tennessee and NW Mississippi. It's a further East than 00z with it's heavy snow axis. Arkansas gets it really bad with major ice changing to heavy snow. 

Memphis 8+ inches. Little Rock 6+ inches on top of ice.  Jackson 8+ inches. Dyersburg 8+ inches.  At 00z last night the heavy snow hugged the Mississippi. This run it's almost the entire western 1/3 of Tennessee.  The 2 inch line approaches SW Davidson County and there's a 2 inch dollop on the southern Plateau.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Euro is going to have a follower to that storm system it appears.  You can see the energy swinging down through the Dakotas nicely looking at 500.  Shortly after that the isobars begin to bend from the wsw and precip develops.  Looks like the cold will be waning , doesn't look like a big storm, but could be another event in what was supposed to be a warming pattern.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Through the 14th the Euro puts down 1-2 inches from the western highland rim to the plateau. Less than an inch in the East Tennessee Valley, 1-3 inches in the mountains. around an inch in SWVA and SEKY.  1/2 inch to 1 inch in far Northern Alabama.  As mentioned above, buries West Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and far western Ky.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Second system was on the Euro last night as well. It looks robust with snow in Arkansas this run, with snow breaking out towards Memphis. Last night it did the same then shifted everything north and became ragged. Will see where it goes soon as the model is still rolling around that time frame.

 

 

It does string out a bit, but still produces snow for much of the state of TN (albeit light)..  As the ridge out west is shredded, it disrupts the cold flow and our area warms significantly at 850, but that would occur after that system goes through....  Cold is pretty entrenched before that happens.  BIG implications for this weekend regarding where the trough goes negative.  Does it close off or stay open? WHERE does it close off, etc...  Lots of questions.

A big mid-south winter storm is definitely on the table, and it's entirely possible we have 60's and storms in the eastern part of TN and a heavy wet snow in the west.  Should be fun to follow, even if I am getting wet while some of you guys out west are getting white..

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Mid-day next Tuesday has light snow falling across almost all of Tennessee, Kentucky and Northern Miss. Heavier band from Nashville to just east of Jackson to Tupelo. Euro is much colder this run vs 00Z for this time. It was portraying rain/freezing rain for Nashville to Memphis for this time frame. Now cold enough for all snow. Begins dying out and heading NE over the rest of the day. Basically adds 1 to maybe 2 inches of snow across most of the state.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It does string out a bit, but still produces snow for much of the state of TN (albeit light)..  As the ridge out west is shredded, it disrupts the cold flow and our area warms significantly at 850, but that would occur after that system goes through....  Cold is pretty entrenched before that happens.  BIG implications for this weekend regarding where the trough goes negative.  Does it close off or stay open? WHERE does it close off, etc...  Lots of questions.

A big mid-south winter storm is definitely on the table, and it's entirely possible we have 60's and storms in the eastern part of TN and a heavy wet snow in the west.  Should be fun to follow, even if I am getting wet while some of you guys out west are getting white..

I think Nashville west is in the game still. That was a significant eastward shift of the heavy snow axis from 00z to 12z. The window isn't closed n the east yet but it's getting there. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I think Nashville west is in the game still. That was a significant westward shift of the heavy snow axis from 00z to 12z. The window isn't closed n the east yet but it's getting there. 

First paragraph is mostly about the storm for next week.  Second dealt with this weekend.  Shouldn't have mixed the thoughts for the two events in the last couple of sentences of the first paragraph.  Just didn't catch it.....lol

I definitely agree regarding Nashville west with the weekend system.  I think I told Carver's a couple of days ago those thoughts.  It's been a pretty stable look the last couple of days now as far as I can tell.

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Vol4Life

Vol4Life

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I think Nashville west is in the game still. That was a significant eastward shift of the heavy snow axis from 00z to 12z. The window isn't closed n the east yet but it's getting there. 

Does the Euro have the LP running up the Apps or to the west?

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