Bango Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Not saturated in the tenn vally yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Little change to my forecast thinking, except it might pull a February 2015 special in the Valley. Ice would be light thanks to light qpf and warming temps. No tree or power line concerns. However the frozen ground would create immediate travel problems. MRX just added all CWA to Advisory! 18 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Looking more like light but sticking ice for Middle Tennessee, especially the Plateau, Sunday night and Monday morning. Little more short-wave ridging left Mid-Tenn, despite HP retreat, therefore light winds. High-res models, useful these situations, have temps dropping back toward a wetbulb around 32 in Middle Tenn. Will it be 32? Still should not be enough ice to harm trees or power lines. However frozen ground should create immediate travel and safety issues. West Tennessee I still think SW winds all levels (including the surface) and WAA gets temps above 32 before rain. East Tennessee and northwest Georgia temps should have a better chance to rise in the daytime Monday, compared to Mid-Tenn pre-dawn, but early arrival of rain would increase risk of light ice (likely now). Agree with MRX it's not 2015 Feb. Either way Middle Tennessee has the best chance of ice due to diurnal timing and the Plateau. Second would be East Tenn. My West, Middle and East Kentucky thoughts are similar to those in Tenn. Have not looked hard at snow in Virginia but I won't argue. One can interpret my lack of comments on the rest of the week as disinterest. Maybe Mid-South and Kentucky, but prolly cold chasing rain. East Valley I'm just going to enjoy some warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 18z RGEM. Pivotal weather. That’s ice storm warning criteria for Knox and headed NE towards my area! Final ended up at 0.30in for Knoxville and Morristown. Was even heavier just north around John’s area and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Will be interesting to see how this might xompare to feb 15'...i live east of john, and i seem to remember we timed that one perfectly, we had a nice clearing, temps bottomed out, and then the clouds/storm moved in...will we get enough clearing? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 FWIW the RAP is coming in colder than other models for tonight/early morning. It's showing as low as 22 degrees at TYS. I lost some faith in the RAP after the last storm, but it's worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Great disco, folks. If we start getting ice in the morning, somebody make a thread. That way we can find the event during future years. Likely minor event....though the 3k NAM was juicier. Keep the info coming. Nowcast time. Radar, temps, and sat pics w cloud cover are all important. Also, real time temp maps of the forum area help because we can see the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 hours ago, Bango said: Not saturated in the tenn vally yet? Try the 3k NAM...see if you see any differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I pray this starts before daylight so the word can get out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Both the 3k NAM and RGEM at 18z show the ice hanging around from I40 north and from the Plateau eastward. The NAM had a significant increase in its qpf. The Canadian models seem to have a cold bias lately though, so not sure what to think. The 3k NAM does get my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I pray this starts before daylight so the word can get out . Yeah, thankfully MRX got an advisory out. Definitely do not want to be sitting in traffic w even a small amount of ZR. NYE in Asheville is a great example of what a small amount can do w ZR, hills, and mountains in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Just looking at the LR...have seen a few hints that thaw might be shortened in its duration. Nothing definitive. Still holding to Jan 20-Feb 5....chances are slightly increasing that I might have to eat a side of crow - meaning the thaw may be shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Dew point is up to 10 degrees here in the southern valley and temp down to 32 already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Kasper said: Dew point is up to 10 degrees here in the southern valley and temp down to 32 already! 18z 3k Nam and HRRR never get me below freezing overnight, so going to be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 27 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 18z 3k Nam and HRRR never get me below freezing overnight, so going to be interesting to see. Personally I think there might be a few surprises with this little system, models notoriously have a hard time with the cold air trapped in the sheltered valleys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Someone start the thread, it’s coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 37 minutes ago, Kasper said: Personally I think there might be a few surprises with this little system, models notoriously have a hard time with the cold air trapped in the sheltered valleys! I'm up on a ridge so the waa, and to a slighted degree downsloping usually warm here first. Hit 31.5/ 16.1 do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The radar is lit up, not sure how long it will take to saturate the atmosphere but unless something happens it feels like precip will start here much earlier than the after 4am MRX forecast. Lots of clouds and southerly flow too, not sure my temp will get down into the 20s. Currently holding at 31, which was the high for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I will keep the medium/LR talk to a minimum, but thought this was worth a share. The 18z GFS did have an uptick in the snow mean for next weekend. As Jeff said, prob a tough scenario for the eastern Valley. One other note, JB also mentions that the system next weekend may involve a pair of systems. One would be near or west of the Apps...the other would follow somewhere near the coast. The cutter/Apps runner would drive the front to the coast where the second would form. You can see that on the 500vort map as well. Some discussion in the MA forum about this as well, The slower that the Pacific trough moves to the coast behind the ridge which is behind next weekend's system, the more cold fills the trough behind next weekend's system. That might also forece the third system (one being tomorrow, two being next weekend, three being around the 16th?) to dig more. The mean is the last slide. There is some minor accumulation for tomorrow's storm included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: The radar is lit up, not sure how long it will take to saturate the atmosphere but unless something happens it feels like precip will start here much earlier than the after 4am MRX forecast. Lots of clouds and southerly flow too, not sure my temp will get down into the 20s. Currently holding at 31, which was the high for the day. Noticed that as well. Anyone in SW TN or middle(just west of) seeing any returns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Noticed that as well. Anyone in SW TN or middle(just west of) seeing any returns? A couple MPing reports just East of Nashville for mixed rain/ice pellets. The column above the east valley floor is moistening...my dp's rising fairly steadily last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 43 here,no chance of any frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Current temp is 27 w a wet bulb at 21.47. That continues to fall. DP is 4.75. No wind which means very little mixing to this point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Current temp is 27 w a wet bulb at 21.47. That continues to fall. DP is 4.75. No wind which means very little mixing to this point here. We have winds from the S here,just went outside,good luck to you guys out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 30.7 here...latest HRRR already busted too warm for temps here in the foothills, never showed below 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Im at 29. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCVol Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 High of 34 now at 29 in Jeff City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Currently 28, dewpoint 12 wind out of the north at 3mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Warm nose is brutal here,just checked out the HRRR,it's even missing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Warm nose is brutal here,just checked out the HRRR,it's even missing thisWhere are you at?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Mid Tn,2m's should be much cooler not in the lower 40's John started a thread for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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