jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Meh mean any sig snow,until the trough passes you could see flakes.IF you want any sig snow you want this to close up where ever if happens at in the Valley region.The orographic spots will do the best,good news we are talking a week away i reckon, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Kentucky said: Neither the cmc or gfs has the storm now...lets hope they pick it back up again heh..maybe that's a good thing..The CMC wants to drop the nuclear cold again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 CMC actually wouldnt give a storm a chance,look at the long wave.GFS would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 There's a couple nice clippers shown on the GFS,who knows if it will be right,right now,until the trough passes east of us we should at least see some impluses by the looks migrating though the Valley until the trough passes and we see a warm up,hope the GFS IS RIGHT,this is Sat evening into Sunday morning next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The 00z GFS shows basically the exact set up it was showing last month with cutters. Highs to the N and storms cutting straight towards them. Of course it didn't remotely happen that way and was instead suppression city. Not shocking to see it fold straight to the Euro solution but still a long way off and not particularly believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 00z GFS shows basically the exact set up it was showing last month with cutters. Highs to the N and storms cutting straight towards them. Of course it didn't remotely happen that way and was instead suppression city. Not shocking to see it fold straight to the Euro solution but still a long way off and not particularly believable. Euro is 6 hrs slower but a like look,not sure who will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Just now, jaxjagman said: Euro is 6 hrs slower but a like look,not sure who will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Last night the Euro went from an apps runner to a cutter. The GFS is following it big time this year but about 24 hours later than the Euro makes its shifts. We'll have a better idea on next weekend after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Last night the Euro went from an apps runner to a cutter. The GFS is following it big time this year but about 24 hours later than the Euro makes its shifts. We'll have a better idea on next weekend after Monday. We're only talking about a clipper system by the look.It's sad to me we have to discuss this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The GFS has me topping out in the mid to upper sixties on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: We're only talking about a clipper system by the look.It's sad to me we have to discuss this We'll see if it sticks to the west side of the apps with the Friday system. East of the Apps and the Western 2/3rd of the forum might have a big winter storm. Trends towards cutters has been really rare this year and I bet that one ends up on the east side of the mountains like the rest of the systems lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Euro shows a clipper next Sat,who knows if it will be right behind a longwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Long range looks like a pretty strong system possibly getting into Mongolia and China,this should pump up a ridge into the AK if it does into the 3rd week of Jan,thats my thinking anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Long range looks like a pretty strong system possibly getting into Mongolia and China,this should pump up a ridge into the AK if it does into the 3rd week of Jan,thats my thinking anyways So then the warmth in the long range on the gfs may be wishful thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 0z EPS show very good slp locations for the valley. Until inside of d5, this storm is going to jump all over the place. The trends on the 0z EPS good. No guarantees....but a slp sliding across MS, AL, GA, and the up the east side of the Apps. Some surface reflection does try for the eastern valley. It had been a distinct cutter west of the Apps. Looks like the GFS run a couple of nights ago which was a far inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The 12 GFS op is not encouraging....but need to wait this one out. The models are varying from run to run w the departing WAR and w energy diving in from the back. Trends today are west of the Apps for the CMC and GFS both. The UKMET this morning took the low road and the EPS was not much different. At this range, going to lean on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 7 hours ago, weathertree4u said: So then the warmth in the long range on the gfs may be wishful thinking? No, it will warm up.That map is long range,probably should have put it in the banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The main reason that we see system 2 cut is that the ridge in front is taking its time moving out and the slp is running smack into it. Not a ton of moving parts. Just need a seam in between the two highs for the storm to develop which there is. The CMC had nothing last night and now cut a well defined slp west of the Apps. Trends on the ensembles are important, especially the EPS. Last night's EPS looked decent...we will see where it goes this afternoon. Will definitely be watching the UKMET and EPS this afternoon. As for the LR, no changes w my thinking really. Big warmup arriving around Jan 17-20. The next cold shot after next weekend's storm is now being modeled as stronger...but after that, the model ensembles at 500 have been very consistent w the trough going into the West. Now, some of the EPS control runs(not the mean...very warm) do hint at breaking down the western trough quickly. I have read some folks who think 7-10 days for the thaw. I lean 2-3 weeks at a minimum. I still like the Jan 20-Feb 5 time frame. I don't use the cfs2 as I just rarely see it as consistent or dependable. The EPS/Weeklies have been very accurate this winter considering the range...I will ride that horse until it shows me otherwise. The Cansips whiffed on December. The CFS2 will show multiple solutions...a broken clock is right twice a day type deal. The operationals have really been pretty average at best this winter...sometimes just bad. So, until the system is inside of 120...I just use the operationals for trends or just storm signals at range. If I wanted...I could probably dig a bit and find a scenario where the thaw is 5-10 days...but most LR model ensembles are not showing the thaw that short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I'm waiting on the Euro inside 5 days as well. The GFS has been mostly junk this year for finer details and the Canadian has spent the last 3 weeks in the wilderness beyond day 5 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Look at the 12z UKMET...(edit) @ hours 120 and 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I wonder if the progressive bias of the GFS is causing it to move into the retreating hp too quickly and causing it to cut? Or maybe the slower bias of the Euro is letting the hp to retreat more? Anyway...If I was going to make a cone of possibility like a hurricane cone. Probably would start the cone in Louisiana. One side of the cone would be to Charlotte. The other would be to Nashville. Most of the runs are between those two spots. FWIW, if I lived in middle or west TN the 12z UKMET looked decent. Those 24 hour increments hide the story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 So far the models are 0-fer on cutters. The ice to rain event tomorrow was modeled as a powerful cutter at one point. Now it's going to slink away into the Gulf. There will eventually be another cutter and it may come next weekend, but I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 GFS drops some ice storm warning level freezing rain totals on the latest run. Especially the areas adjacent to the east side of the plateau. It's backed up to some extent by the hi-res NAM which dollops some .50+ totals around the area. RGEM still widespread with .1-.15 amounts as well. I expect MRX to expand the WWA a tier of counties eastward by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I wonder if the progressive bias of the GFS is causing it to move into the retreating hp too quickly and causing it to cut? Or maybe the slower bias of the Euro is letting the hp to retreat more? Anyway...If I was going to make a cone of possibility like a hurricane cone. Probably would start the cone in Louisiana. One side of the cone would be to Charlotte. The other would be to Nashville. Most of the runs are between those two spots. FWIW, if I lived in middle or west TN the 12z UKMET looked decent. Those 24 hour increments hide the story though. Your right Carver, not a bad look at all! With The way things go in west Tn it would not surprise me if it snowed right after 2-3 days of temps in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, John1122 said: GFS drops some ice storm warning level freezing rain totals on the latest run. Especially the areas adjacent to the east side of the plateau. It's backed up to some extent by the hi-res NAM which dollops some .50+ totals around the area. RGEM still widespread with .1-.15 amounts as well. I expect MRX to expand the WWA a tier of counties eastward by evening. Wouldn't be surprised by that either. Also noticing that looks like Imby is going to fall short of forecast highs today also. Forecast high of 38, still sitting 32 with west wind, not southerly at what should be about daily max sun radiation. Classic CAD against the eastern Cumberland Escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The typical MRX hole has formed... lol Though my county and all the Western great valley counties are under WWA, I always find it amusing when you see an image like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The 18z 3K NAM is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 It is amusing but seeing the ground as cold as it is with any moisture and temps that have tended lower than forecast I think it is also irresponsible. Maybe they just are a little late because they have a lot to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, bearman said: It is amusing but seeing the ground as cold as it is with any moisture and temps that have tended lower than forecast I think it is also irresponsible. Maybe they just are a little late because they have a lot to do. And appears they just filled the hole. All of MRX under WWA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I guess I spoke 2 minutes too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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