Kentucky Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 48-Hour Probability of Freezing Rain Accumulating ≥ .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Kentucky said: 48-Hour Probability of Freezing Rain Accumulating ≥ .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 48-Hour Probability of Freezing Rain Accumulating ≥ .10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 00z gfs is a beastly winter storm for much of the forum with event 2. Seen the story before but maybe it's finally our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: 00z gfs is a beastly winter storm for much of the forum with event 2. Seen the story before but maybe it's finally our time. That reminds me, when are you heading to Chatty? I need some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Canadian has the high further west, but stronger, tries a cutter that miller B''s off the Carolinas that gives the eastern areas snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: That reminds me, when are you heading to Chatty? I need some snow! Super Bowl weekend is my next below 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Precipitation type maps are off on that GFS run. Shows ice/rain with sub 32 850s and surface temps in the lower to mid 30s. Low placement, high placement and strength I think would provide more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 At this hour Knox is sub 32 at the surface and at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Euro actually stepped close to the GFS track, has a SLP around Charlotte with snow flying over the Plateau areas and into SE Ky by 1-12/13. The GFS was the most wintry tonight with wide spread sleet, zr and then snow. The Canadian was later and further east based with it's odd coastal redevelopment solution. The Euro has a similar track as the GFS and delivers some really cold air with highs not getting above freezing days 8-10 after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 MRX remembers the 2015 event mentioned earlier. Quote One thing we`ve been looking for is a possible stubborn northerly wind in the valley that might keep temps in the afternoon below freezing--as was seen with the ice event in Feb 2015. Right now, it looks like the pressure pattern will try to keep a SW flow up the valley on Monday, that will help with warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 MRX remembers the 2015 event mentioned earlier. One thingwe`ve been looking for is a possible stubborn northerly wind in thevalley that might keep temps in the afternoon below freezing--as wasseen with the ice event in Feb 2015. Right now, it looks like thepressure pattern will try to keep a SW flow up the valley on Monday,that will help with warm advection. That’s the one I was talking about . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 18z GFS looks good for the event next Friday/Saturday for most of the area. I'm sure nothing will go wrong with the runs between now and then...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 12z was very aggressive with ice and snow next week at this time. I have no idea what will happen, but hopefully it's remotely close. Hopefully the 12z Euro steps more in line again. If this storm was being shown for any other part of the country I'd be much more confident it was going down. But we've lost at least 3 threats this season in this range this winter already. Maybe 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 There's a layer of freezing rain, a layer of sleet, then snow on top. A lot of the zr in the east happens Monday morning. In the west the next storm is mainly a freezing rain/sleet event that run as cold undercuts, snow falls in the east as the storm runs east of the Apps. 6z was more suppressed, which as we all know is a worrisome trend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Euro is more interesting for the Monday system. Especially for SW Virginia. More snow on the front end. Maybe even an inch or two in SWVA. Pockets of ice/mix hang in much longer across the east as well. Second system is a nothing burger though as it cuts the system west of the apps. It's not terribly far from the GFS solution, but the LP placement is of course massive for P-Type. Doesn't make a ton of sense to me to be a cutter with a 1050 HP pressing into the upper midwest. We've seen the models show that and show cutters all season. The cutters have been suppressed to the central Gulf or central Florida when reality hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Starting to get interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 RGEM now showing ice hanging tough in the northern valley for just about the whole duration Monday. Not sure if it’s on to something, but I always listen when it speaks. Also, for some reason I see on this 18Z run it went out to 54 hrs? Is that new now? It only used to go out to 48. Matter of fact 12z only went to 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 41 minutes ago, Jed33 said: RGEM now showing ice hanging tough in the northern valley for just about the whole duration Monday. Not sure if it’s on to something, but I always listen when it speaks. Also, for some reason I see on this 18Z run it went out to 54 hrs? Is that new now? It only used to go out to 48. Matter of fact 12z only went to 48 hrs. I believe the 18z always goes to 54. The RGEM is quite icy. This starts becoming a know your micro climate situation. We've seen this type of event play out plenty of times and what happened before will probably be a good guide to what will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: I believe the 18z always goes to 54. The RGEM is quite icy. This starts becoming a know your micro climate situation. We've seen this type of event play out plenty of times and what happened before will probably be a good guide to what will happen again. Ah thanks John. Guess I hadn’t ever paid that much attention to the 18z. Yes it is icy for sure, and in these situations my area is one of the ones to hold onto that cold air through or nearly through the duration. I don’t see it being crippling in terms of Qpf, but it could be quite difficult to get around in Monday should that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Pivitol ice maps from the 18z RGEM. Still icing in parts of the area at this time. The ground is so cold this will be a skating rink situation for driving or walking even with .05 ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Noticed the RMM is taking a New Years break,it's been down since the 1st.MJO headed into Phase 3 and the GWO around -3 sigma into 3 as well,strong looking(Nina pattern),seems like the perfect recipe for a SER coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Pivitol ice maps from the 18z RGEM. Still icing in parts of the area at this time. The ground is so cold this will be a skating rink situation for driving or walking even with .05 ice. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Yeah that'll be fun to drive around on Monday morning. Good thing the kids don't start back to school until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Looking more like light but sticking ice for Middle Tennessee, especially the Plateau, Sunday night and Monday morning. Little more short-wave ridging left Mid-Tenn, despite HP retreat, therefore light winds. High-res models, useful these situations, have temps dropping back to a wetbulb around 32 in Middle Tenn. Still should not be enough ice to harm trees or power lines. However frozen ground should create immediate travel and safety issues. West Tennessee I still think SW winds all levels (including the surface) and WAA gets temps above 32 before rain. East Tennessee and northwest Georgia temps should have a better chance to rise in the daytime Monday, compared to Mid-Tenn pre-dawn, but early arrival of rain would increase risk of light ice. Agree with MRX it's not 2015 Feb. Either way Middle Tennessee has the best chance of ice due to diurnal timing and the Plateau. Second would be East Tenn. My West, Middle and East Kentucky thoughts are similar to those in Tenn. Have not looked hard at snow in Virginia but I won't argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 CFS wants to kill winter with it's MJO forecast.Jeff threw it to the curb though in his earlier post.Interesting lecture and worth reading if you have time about the MJO and blocking where sometimes we can get a cross polar flow without it being favorable phases from Ventrice. https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/29036?recordingid=29036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 0z RGEM Ice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 RGEM still keeps spitting out some ice for the valley. I guess we’ll see if it’s right. GFS doesn’t really show much, but I don’t trust the GFS for much of anything this year. The NAM is also seemingly drier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Nothing but a long wave look on the GFS 0Z.next weekend.If it would close up someone in the Valley would possibly see a good storm like the Euro showed a coupe days ago.Other than orographic places...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Neither the cmc or gfs has the storm now...lets hope they pick it back up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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