Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

24 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Yeah, I like the mid-month signals showing up though I admit I’m gradually get more tired of paying attention. At this rate I’ll take an ankle-biting hit and roll the dice on March. Just want to get on the board. 

Barely even looked until this evening.  Been herding cats today....but the GFS, CMC, and Eur are all showing a weak but definitive signal for a pretty active and realistic winter wx pattern beginning next weekend.  The cutter may very well set the stage for storms behind.  Then we transition to a zonal pattern followed by a ridge pattern followed by a return to the trough pattern that we are in now...except w February wavelengths.  Hit the green belt this afternoon for about an hour.  The creek is nearly frozen over.  Saw a squirrel walking on the ice...he seemed as intrigued as we were.  LOL.  

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Been herding cats today....but the GFS, CMC, and Eur are all showing a weak but definitive signal for a pretty active and realistic winter wx pattern beginning next weekend.  The cutter may very well set the stage for storms behind.  Then we transition to a zonal pattern followed by a ridge pattern followed by a return to the trough pattern that we are in now...except w February wavelengths.  Hit the green belt this afternoon for about an hour.  The creek is nearly frozen over.  Saw a squirrel walking on the ice...he seemed as inteigued as we were.  LOL.  

Hopefully the 10th-14th can be our turn to get in on the snow game.  We're due for an overachieving storm IMO.  I hope folks on the southeastern coast can cash in tomorrow.  Then Mother Nature can start to worry about brewin our winter storm.  Keep the faith guys, it's gonna happen soon!!

 

[Carvers Gap]

Any of our western folks seeing any flakes?  Seems like the radar has precip over Arkansas that was not modeled....system maybe stronger than expected.  I was honestly surprised(watching the phase on the models for the past few days) to see that energy without any precip.  Other odds and ends...RGEM has some snow shower activity from hour 36-54.

[AMZ8990]

51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Any of our western folks seeing any flakes?  Seems like the radar has precip over Arkansas that was not modeled....system maybe stronger than expected.  I was honestly surprised(watching the phase on the models for the past few days) to see that energy without any precip.  Other odds and ends...RGEM has some snow shower activity from hour 36-54.

Im keeeping an eye out, but nothing yet.  They mentioned in the radio this morning that their might be some flurries around tonight and tomorrow morning.  If I could get a surprise dusting I'd be pumped.  I'll keep ya updated though.

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Im keeeping an eye out, but nothing yet.  They mentioned in the radio this morning that their might be some flurries around tonight and tomorrow morning.  If I could get a surprise dusting I'd be pumped.  I'll keep ya updated though.

The 0z 3k NAM is stronger which might confirm my suspicion that things to the west are a little more vigorous than modeled...even still the NAM is missing precip/virga? over Arkansas and Louisiana.  If that storm pulls west(not here) that could open up the Lakes for the areas north of 40 to see some sustained snow shower activity.  But it is the NAM...and man, it is always looking to amp things up.  

[jaxjagman]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
316 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018


FLZ020>024-030-035-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031000-
/O.UPG.KJAX.WS.A.0001.180103T0700Z-180103T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.WS.W.0001.180103T0900Z-180103T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.WC.Y.0002.180103T0600Z-180104T1400Z/
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Union-Gilchrist-
Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-
Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-Echols-Clinch-Charlton-
Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
Including the cities of Jasper, Jennings, West Lake, Belmont,
White Springs, Houston, Live Oak, McAlpin, Newburn,
Suwannee Springs, Columbia, Lake City, Oleno State Park, Lulu,
Watertown, Macclenny, Olustee, Ratliff, Hilliard, Kings Ferry,
Bryceville, Lake Butler, Trenton, Douglas, Hazlehurst, Alma,
New Lacy, Baxley, Pine Grove, Plant Hatch, Doctortown, Gardi,
Jesup, Axson, Pearson, Willacoochee, Needham, Waycross,
Blackshear, Atkinson, Hickox, Hortense, Nahunta, Raybon,
Waynesville, Hoboken, Thalmann, Jekyll Island, Glynn Haven,
Sea Island, St. Simons, Country Club Estate, Dock Junction,
Needmore, Statenville, Homerville, Folkston, St. George, Winokur,
Homeland, Race Pond, Stephen Foster State Park, Colesburg,
Tarboro, Waverly, Woodbine, Dover Bluff, Kingsland, and Dungeness
316 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Very cold wind
  chills expected. Power outages and tree damage are likely due
  to the ice. Travel will be dangerous and nearly impossible,
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to one half of an inch are expected. Expect wind chills
  to range from 30 above zero to 10 above zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Florida, northern Florida and
  southeast Georgia.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, 4 AM Wednesday to 5 PM
  Wednesday. The heaviest snowfall rates and greatest ice
  accumulation will occur between 7 AM and 1 PM Wednesday. For
  the Wind Chill Advisory, 1 AM Wednesday and 9 AM Thursday. The
  coldest wind chills will occur around 6 AM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

[jaxjagman]

And we can't get a flake here

[AMZ8990]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z 3k NAM is stronger which might confirm my suspicion that things to the west are a little more vigorous than modeled...even still the NAM is missing precip/virga? over Arkansas and Louisiana.  If that storm pulls west(not here) that could open up the Lakes for the areas north of 40 to see some sustained snow shower activity.  But it is the NAM...and man, it is always looking to amp things up.  

It looks like Southern Ark is getting some good returns right now.  I'm sure that energy will die off as it moves east though.  It's surprising to see nonetheless.

[AMZ8990]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

And we can't get a flake here

I've been thinking the same thing.  Pisses me off, I just keep thinking at some point we will get a bone thrown our way.

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

It looks like Southern Ark is getting some good returns right now.  I'm sure that energy will die off as it moves east though.  It's surprising to see nonetheless.

If it is reaching the ground...it is a miss by the models.  This phase should have moisture with it on a normal day.   Let's see if it propagates eastward.  

[Kasper]

The Wave that's barreling its way south has an impressive band of snow, again not modeled! I think models had snow that was just making through Minnesota and the Dakotas!

The Echos in Arkansas and Mississippi are working their way Southeast, getting ready to energize that low off the keys! That's another interesting scenario, the low was suppose to form just east of the Florida peninsula!

[Carvers Gap]

Going to have to live this storm through others on the EC....let's see if the 0z GFS goes bigger.  It looks stronger on radar.  That energy to our southwest is just stronger as evidence by precip heading into eastern MS.  Would be great to get a report from that area to see if it is reaching the ground.

[Snow Wisher]

59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Going to have to live this storm through others on the EC....let's see if the 0z GFS goes bigger.  It looks stronger on radar.  That energy to our southwest is just stronger as evidence by precip heading into eastern MS.  Would be great to get a report from that area to see if it is reaching the ground.

I’m in East Central MS and nothing reaching the ground here yet. Temp is 25 and air is very dry. Have not had any reports of any flurries yet per the local news.

[Carvers Gap]

53 minutes ago, Snow Wisher said:

I’m in East Central MS and nothing reaching the ground here yet. Temp is 25 and air is very dry. Have not had any reports of any flurries yet per the local news.

Thank you.  Glad that you posted.  Tough to tell if those returns in southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and MS are virga or not.  Your information helps a lot.  Keep us updated.  Here is the radar from around midnight. Been a while.  Please keep posting!  Always good to get your input from MS. Did you get any snow back in December w/ that storm? 

[bearman]

Snow is being reported in deep southern Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC was a nice run.  It and the 0z GFS continue to show a pattern that has chances down the road.   

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, bearman said:

Snow is being reported in deep southern Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas.

 

Thanks, man.  The 0z RGEM, though a bit south of current returns, seems to have that energy handled at least within the ballpark.  Still, plenty of models missed that piece when they initialize.  Most of the models did not have it modeled well when it went through Arkansas either...at least radar returns anyway.  Just testing a theory that a phase in that area should have precipitation under it.  The models have been pretty dry w that so far.

[Kasper]

MRX used my favorite term, Dendritic, you guys to the North may see some flakes fly! My hope is that this jet streak is a bit more potent and than modeled! I guess we will see! 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
404 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Kind of a lull today as the surface ridge slides to the east and
valley temps get above freezing for the first time in a few days,
then another cold front moves in tonight with gusty winds and very
cold wind chills.  Will have a wind chill advisory for parts of the
area, generally higher elevations, where temperatures will be
colder, but the winds will be quite a bit higher.  Also, the
temperatures coming in with this airmass will be in the dendritic
growth regions, even below 850 mb, so have included snow showers and
flurries for late tonight for the northern half of the area, but
with minimal accumulations for these few hours (since this forecast
period ends early Thursday morning) in the higher elevations.  These
conditions including the Wind Chill Advisory will continue into the
next period.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday night)...
A shortwave will dive southward and amplify the longwave trough
across the region on Wednesday night and Thursday with surface
high pressure to our northwest and a developing coastal surface
low off of the SE coast. The tight pressure gradient will result
in a northwesterly wind advecting in another shot of cold, Arctic
air to the forecast area. This also appears to be a favorable
setup for some northwest flow snowfall across the higher
elevations. Moisture will be limited, but Great Lakes influence on
air parcel trajectories should provide some additional, but
limited, low-level moisture. Also, the following factors seem to
support northwest flow snowfall: 1) the very cold airmass placing
the DGZ near the surface; 2) 850mb winds at 20-30 kt providing
good orographic lift across the higher terrain; and 3) an 850mb
trough axis dipping into the Southern Appalachians on Thursday
morning providing steep low-level lapse rates. These factors
support the potential for orographically enhanced precipitation
across the higher elevations and at least some flurries across the
lower terrain. With such a cold air mass, any small amount of
moisture and lift may produce at least a few flurries on Thursday
and Friday. Troughing remains for Friday and Saturday with
continued cold and max temperatures about 20 to 25 degrees below
normal. High pressure over the area should bring us mostly sunny
conditions on Friday, and especially Saturday, as high pressure
builds over the region.

Ridging at 850mb and southwest flow increases Saturday night ahead
of the next system which will allow us to warm up above freezing
across the forecast area on Sunday. Weak isentropic lift should also
lead to increasing high and mid-level clouds during the day. The GFS
and ECMWF are coming into better agreement on the Sunday night and
Monday system, but timing is still slightly different. Precipitation
increases from the west on Sunday night with likely PoPs over the
entire area by Monday and Monday afternoon. The GFS is quicker with
precipitation ending for most areas by Monday night, but the ECMWF
is slower and deeper with the upper-low and hangs onto precipitation
longer. Regardless, should still see at least some lingering
precipitation across the higher elevations on Monday night with
northwest post-frontal winds and orographic lift. On Tuesday into
the middle of the week, the model solutions diverge greatly with the
0z GFS showing another trough diving across the Eastern CONUS and
the 0z ECMWF showing ridging building across the Southeast with
warmer and above normal temperatures. Current forecast has been a
blend of both, but there is definitely a lot of uncertainty on the
exact evolution of systems and the overall pattern toward the middle
of next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             39  17  27  14 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  35  16  25  10 /   0  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       37  16  25  10 /   0  10  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              33  13  21   7 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday
     for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday
     for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-
     Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast
     Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9
     AM CST/ Thursday for Bledsoe-Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-
     Sequatchie.

VA...Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday
     for Russell-Washington-Wise.

&&

$$

GM/JB

[Kasper]

We have Virga in the Southern Valley this am

[TellicoWx]

33 minutes ago, Kasper said:

We have Virga in the Southern Valley this am

Yeah, gotta love these virga storms lol

[TellicoWx]

18.3 with a dp 15.6 here...temp has been rising since about 2 this morning.

[Kasper]

6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

18.3 with a dp 15.6 here...temp has been rising since about 2 this morning.

Yea definitely, the atmosphere is moistening up but after today,say goodbye to those temps and dew points.

[PowellVolz]

Not something you see everyday




.

[Kasper]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Not something you see everyday




.

I have a feeling the coast of Ga, SC, NC, etc are gonna get hammered! 

[John1122]

Looks like a pattern shakeup will finally come to pass. We'll be warm with several rounds of rain. Have to hope it resets into something favorable. Currently in month 10 or so where snow can fall with little or none to speak of, the least snowy stretch here in around 80 years. Been outsnowed by Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and now Florida and coastal South Carolina have recorded a bigger winter storm than this area has since 2016.

GFS goes full torch in the long range, if it's right all cold evacuates NA for the most part. The lower 48 is barely below freezing anywhere. Maybe it will be short lived and work into something we can work with.

The Ens look a little colder than the OP, so maybe the OP is wrong. The EURO showed warmth/ridging taking over by D10,

Right now our only chances of wintry precip are a few flurries or snow showers the next couple of days followed by either moisture catching cold for a brief time or cold chasing moisture, which rarely works for us. 

So hopefully this pattern change can get us to a favorable February once again. It's been a long time since we had a really snowy January anyway. It's funny that we used to be steady in our snowfall. It snowed 4-6 inches at least once every year, with smaller events interwoven, there were no near shut out years. Now it's either 30 inches for my area or less than 10. It still works out to a 20 inch average which is about what falls here at my elevation. But the boom or bust nature is odd. 

I do hate seeing the GFS throw out the cold as mid-January approaches. Jan 15th to February 15th is the heart of winter for the Valley. You never want to lose it to a warm pattern. But we are in the very rare example of a cold pattern being absolutely dead. It's been sub freezing for 11  consecutive days on Mt LeConte and .25 inches of snow has fallen. That is truly rare with the nature of NW flow snow. 

 

 

[John1122]

The ugly courtesy of the 12z GFS.

[tnweathernut]

John, you are right.  I haven't looked at modeling much in the last 48 hours, but the long range EPS from last night takes our cold and delivers it toward Europe.  After this next round hits it leaves pretty rapidly and we are left with a lower 48 ridge that begins to develop and strengthen.  The good news is, maybe we can warm up and have a few moisture laden rainers.  It has gotten awfully dry around northeast TN.  I am sure the farmers would welcome several rainy systems...

Also, the warmer weather will feel nice after such dramatic cold. I'm ready to stop wearing 4 layers 24/7.  I hope we reset to something favorable, but the modeling doesn't look good at this point.  May take some time to work out of what is coming......... and by that time, we would be running out of time.  Either way, we might as well enjoy it.  Not like we can change any of it.

[Carvers Gap]

18 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Yeah, I like the mid-month signals showing up though I admit I’m gradually get more tired of paying attention. At this rate I’ll take an ankle-biting hit and roll the dice on March. Just want to get on the board. 

My bad...typo on my part.  Original post should have read...second half of January.

[John1122]

15 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

John, you are right.  I haven't looked at modeling much in the last 48 hours, but the long range EPS from last night takes our cold and delivers it toward Europe.  After this next round hits it leaves pretty rapidly and we are left with a lower 48 ridge that begins to develop and strengthen.  The good news is, maybe we can warm up and have a few moisture laden rainers.  It has gotten awfully dry around northeast TN.  I am sure the farmers would welcome several rainy systems...

Also, the warmer weather will feel nice after such dramatic cold. I'm ready to stop wearing 4 layers 24/7.  I hope we reset to something favorable, but the modeling doesn't look good at this point.  May take some time to work out of what is coming......... and by that time, we would be running out of time.  Either way, we might as well enjoy it.  Not like we can change any of it.

Yes, I'd just as soon be warm myself if we can get no precip at all while cold. I hope the pattern doesn't lock in warm though. This is just such an odd situation. Spending a week below freezing in January and not seeing any precip of note is tough to swallow. Especially with snow falling in every direction from here and knowing that precip is finally going to arrive but with temps just warm enough for rain. Sometimes it seems like the Tennessee Valley is the toughest place in the nation to get wintry precip to fall. I know that isn't true at all but after last year with nearly nothing and this year and multiple deep south snows, it sure seems that way.

[Stovepipe]

On the plus side, if the GFS is correct I'll be de-winterizing the camper and spending some quality time in the great outdoors!  I'll also be able to get these chickens out of my garage and back into their pen.  The dry cold is awful, I'll take a torch over this mess anytime.