Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[Kasper]

This is probably wishcasting, but would love see those bands that far west! I guess we will see how the next few runs pan out!

[Chattownsnow]

EPS day 10 temperature anomalies show the forum area at 6-8 degrees below average. if a storm does come rolling along ill take my chances with this. Also given that it is mid January anomalies don't have to be too extreme to give you wintry weather. I would post the image but it seems to be blocked, I would image because it is a paid for map. 

[Chattownsnow]

28 minutes ago, Kasper said:

This is probably wishcasting, but would love see those bands that far west! I guess we will see how the next few runs pan out!

personally I would be shocked if this storm throws any precip our way. I guess anything can happen but even the most bullish ensemble members bring nothing to our area nor do they even get the mountains involved. There are a few Euro ensemble members that show a clipper coming down and dropping 2-3 inches of high ratio snow a couple days later that has more legs than this coastal though. 

[Kasper]

2 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

personally I would be shocked if this storm throws any precip our way. I guess anything can happen but even the most bullish ensemble members bring nothing to our area nor do they even get the mountains involved. There are a few Euro ensemble members that show a clipper coming down and dropping 2-3 inches of high ratio snow a couple days later that has more legs than this coastal though. 

Hey I'll take anything at this point, but clippers usually yield us zip down here, but we might have a chance as cold as this airmass is! 

[Carvers Gap]

If you ever wanted to see what being Nam'ed is....take a look at the 6z 12km NAM in South Carolina. That 3'?And before we totally dismiss this as no global shave that...see the RGEM

[weathertree4u]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If you ever wanted to see what being Nam'ed is....take a look at the 6z 12km NAM in South Carolina. That 3'?And before we totally dismiss this as no global shave that...see the RGEM

That is insane, but so is this cold!!!

[PowellVolz]

This has already come back a long ways, need 150 more miles.



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[Blackbearvol]

As far as next week goes, NWS Memphis put in their discussion this morning that the warm up would be short lived, and predicting precip types will be interesting with the southern branch of the jet getting active. They are usually very conservative. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Blackbearvol said:

As far as next week goes, NWS Memphis put in their discussion this morning that the warm up would be short lived, and predicting precip types will be interesting with the southern branch of the jet getting active. They are usually very conservative. 

Good find.  I noticed on the EPS that the ridge in the West held and did not roll forward at d15.  The Euro operational, as John mentioned above, definitely has potential.

[Kasper]

Lake effect snow in West Tennessee off  Kentucky Lake, insane! I think I've seen this one other time in my lifetime! 

[AMZ8990]

5 hours ago, Kentucky said:

Nice little surprise coating here in Corbin, still snowing 

That's awesome Kentucky.  I'm glad somebody got to see some flakes and accumulation!

[PowellVolz]

LOL at the SE board after the 12z. I feel like I can laugh at other people when it doesn’t break freezing for a week in Knoxville and we’ve got nothing to show for it.


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[Kasper]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

LOL at the SE board after the 12z. I feel like I can laugh at other people when it doesn’t break freezing for a week in Knoxville and we’ve got nothing to show for it.


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Yep, they are going nuts, some will be disappointed I'm afraid, but who knows! 

[PowellVolz]

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/beech-base-cam/


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[Kasper]

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/beech-base-cam/


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Why post that Now I'm jealous 

[jaxjagman]

25 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/beech-base-cam/


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where is this?

 

Edit:I see its NC

[Kasper]

Interesting read from SE Forum......The western ridge has a march 93 look to it, with the various jet streams lining up (arctic/polar/STJ). This is different than your traditional small cutoff/partial phase we often see.

 Notice you can draw a line from alaska all the way down to the GOM. The 2nd GIF is from March 93. This will ramp up/accelerate parcels of air down the jet stream to the bottom of the trough axis and the back north up the other side of the trough. This will create a jetstreak over the east coast seen at the bottom on the NAM. As the parcels accelerate back up the jet stream and vacate it creates a vaccum, rising motion results and you get huge dynamics  (aka exploding SFC low pressures). That's why we're seeing these 950mb lows being spit out. The global models are not going to be accurate with the exact timing of the bombing out on this one. The question for me is when does the bombing start?   

 

[Kasper]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

where is this?

Beech Mtn NC

[John1122]

Not a huge surprise, but the Euro lost the second snow system but still kept the cutter. It's going to nail that thing from 10 days out with no sweat.

[jaxjagman]

-AO doing its work in the long range

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN01 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 12Z 01-JAN 6.9 2.2 35007 52 MON 18Z 01-JAN 19.1 7.9 19.3 -2.0 36007 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 00Z 02-JAN 21.3 16.2 16.0 -8.4 35006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 02-JAN 16.1 10.3 10.2 -13.2 01006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 02-JAN 10.2 7.8 7.7 -11.1 02004 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 02-JAN 23.5 7.4 23.8 -10.7 35003 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 03-JAN 27.1 19.4 19.6 -7.3 01003 0.00 0.00 85 WED 06Z 03-JAN 20.9 18.9 20.0 -2.8 13001 0.00 0.00 100 WED 12Z 03-JAN 20.9 19.0 19.7 -5.6 21003 0.00 0.00 98 WED 18Z 03-JAN 32.4 19.7 32.6 -2.3 24006 0.00 0.00 40 THU 00Z 04-JAN 35.1 25.9 25.7 -1.5 28006 0.00 0.00 4 THU 06Z 04-JAN 25.7 19.6 19.4 5.2 33008 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 04-JAN 19.4 14.0 14.0 0.7 35007 0.00 0.00 31 THU 18Z 04-JAN 22.9 13.4 23.1 -2.4 33005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 05-JAN 25.6 20.1 20.0 -2.3 32006 0.00 0.00 12 FRI 06Z 05-JAN 20.0 15.2 15.2 -3.5 33005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 05-JAN 15.2 11.6 11.6 -4.0 34005 0.00 0.00 24 FRI 18Z 05-JAN 21.5 11.1 21.7 -10.4 33005 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 00Z 06-JAN 24.3 18.1 18.0 -7.0 35005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 06-JAN 18.0 12.0 11.9 -6.7 01004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 06-JAN 11.9 8.4 8.3 -5.7 04004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 06-JAN 24.8 7.8 25.2 -15.3 05001 0.00 0.00 68 SUN 00Z 07-JAN 28.9 23.6 24.0 -10.4 07001 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 06Z 07-JAN 24.2 20.6 21.3 -11.2 15006 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 12Z 07-JAN 27.0 21.2 27.1 -11.2 17009 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 07-JAN 40.0 27.1 40.3 -4.7 17012 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 08-JAN 42.1 39.9 40.9 2.7 17013 0.00 0.00 97 MON 06Z 08-JAN 41.1 38.4 38.8 36.7 17014 0.07 0.00 100 MON 12Z 08-JAN 42.6 38.6 42.7 42.4 17015 0.17 0.00 100 MON 18Z 08-JAN 48.5 42.7 48.5 48.3 18013 0.48 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 09-JAN 51.9 45.8 45.4 42.9 25012 0.12 0.00 92 TUE 06Z 09-JAN 45.4 37.4 37.3 31.1 27009 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 09-JAN 37.3 33.6 33.5 28.8 27006 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 09-JAN 38.7 33.2 38.8 27.5 28008 0.00 0.00 71 WED 00Z 10-JAN 42.4 36.0 36.0 26.3 29007 0.00 0.00 91 WED 06Z 10-JAN 36.3 28.8 28.5 18.8 32010 0.00 0.00 52 WED 12Z 10-JAN 28.5 18.8 18.7 4.6 31005 0.00 0.00 23 WED 18Z 10-JAN 19.9 17.8 18.1 -9.8 32012 0.00 0.00 74 THU 00Z 11-JAN 18.4 12.0 11.9 -16.7 32009 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 11-JAN 11.9 8.7 8.6 -15.9 33007 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 11-JAN 8.6 7.2 7.2 -13.0 36003 0.00 0.00 0

[Kasper]

9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

-AO doing its work in the long range

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN01 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 12Z 01-JAN 6.9 2.2 35007 52 MON 18Z 01-JAN 19.1 7.9 19.3 -2.0 36007 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 00Z 02-JAN 21.3 16.2 16.0 -8.4 35006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 02-JAN 16.1 10.3 10.2 -13.2 01006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 02-JAN 10.2 7.8 7.7 -11.1 02004 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 02-JAN 23.5 7.4 23.8 -10.7 35003 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 03-JAN 27.1 19.4 19.6 -7.3 01003 0.00 0.00 85 WED 06Z 03-JAN 20.9 18.9 20.0 -2.8 13001 0.00 0.00 100 WED 12Z 03-JAN 20.9 19.0 19.7 -5.6 21003 0.00 0.00 98 WED 18Z 03-JAN 32.4 19.7 32.6 -2.3 24006 0.00 0.00 40 THU 00Z 04-JAN 35.1 25.9 25.7 -1.5 28006 0.00 0.00 4 THU 06Z 04-JAN 25.7 19.6 19.4 5.2 33008 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 04-JAN 19.4 14.0 14.0 0.7 35007 0.00 0.00 31 THU 18Z 04-JAN 22.9 13.4 23.1 -2.4 33005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 05-JAN 25.6 20.1 20.0 -2.3 32006 0.00 0.00 12 FRI 06Z 05-JAN 20.0 15.2 15.2 -3.5 33005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 05-JAN 15.2 11.6 11.6 -4.0 34005 0.00 0.00 24 FRI 18Z 05-JAN 21.5 11.1 21.7 -10.4 33005 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 00Z 06-JAN 24.3 18.1 18.0 -7.0 35005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 06-JAN 18.0 12.0 11.9 -6.7 01004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 06-JAN 11.9 8.4 8.3 -5.7 04004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 06-JAN 24.8 7.8 25.2 -15.3 05001 0.00 0.00 68 SUN 00Z 07-JAN 28.9 23.6 24.0 -10.4 07001 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 06Z 07-JAN 24.2 20.6 21.3 -11.2 15006 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 12Z 07-JAN 27.0 21.2 27.1 -11.2 17009 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 07-JAN 40.0 27.1 40.3 -4.7 17012 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 08-JAN 42.1 39.9 40.9 2.7 17013 0.00 0.00 97 MON 06Z 08-JAN 41.1 38.4 38.8 36.7 17014 0.07 0.00 100 MON 12Z 08-JAN 42.6 38.6 42.7 42.4 17015 0.17 0.00 100 MON 18Z 08-JAN 48.5 42.7 48.5 48.3 18013 0.48 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 09-JAN 51.9 45.8 45.4 42.9 25012 0.12 0.00 92 TUE 06Z 09-JAN 45.4 37.4 37.3 31.1 27009 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 09-JAN 37.3 33.6 33.5 28.8 27006 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 09-JAN 38.7 33.2 38.8 27.5 28008 0.00 0.00 71 WED 00Z 10-JAN 42.4 36.0 36.0 26.3 29007 0.00 0.00 91 WED 06Z 10-JAN 36.3 28.8 28.5 18.8 32010 0.00 0.00 52 WED 12Z 10-JAN 28.5 18.8 18.7 4.6 31005 0.00 0.00 23 WED 18Z 10-JAN 19.9 17.8 18.1 -9.8 32012 0.00 0.00 74 THU 00Z 11-JAN 18.4 12.0 11.9 -16.7 32009 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 11-JAN 11.9 8.7 8.6 -15.9 33007 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 11-JAN 8.6 7.2 7.2 -13.0 36003 0.00 0.00 0

Great More Cold, then Rain on the 8th, 9th, that's encouraging

[jaxjagman]

Still love this look.If this were severe season, i'd be really excited.Teleconnection isn't that great looking right now if you ask me tho.But  we do have a nice + PNA,Noticed the Control hinted at a nice bowling ball around the 4-corners last night with a somewhat phased look.Mid month system i've been talking about for a couple days still looks good.Just what kind will it be is still in question

[PowellVolz]

Temp today at my house was 3-4 degrees below Euro/GFS, more in line with CMC.


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[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies update....After all of the MJO talk into phase 4 shown by the Euro today, I was expecting the Euro 500 pattern to flip to a western trough.  Weeks 1-3.5 are what we have now w/ temps less extreme as the cold shifts to the other side of the planet.  But a trough in the eastern half of the US during most of January is a not a bad sign at all.  Weeks 3.5 and 5 feature a trough that passes through the West only to set up shop in the East again.  Week six now has a signal similar to what this current outbreak had...very cold.  Will update 2m temps later.  I would guess that it shows a warmer NA as a whole...but we can work w marginal air masses in the SE during January as they are still pretty cold here.  The second week of February features a return to very cold 850s.  

[Carvers Gap]

To balance out the Weeklies comments.  The CANSIPS is out for Jan/Feb.  They are pretty much a torch....but, they were terrible for December if I remember correctly by missing the extreme cold.  This model was very accurate last winter - maybe because it is often warm?  

[Carvers Gap]

More on the Weeklies...Weeks 1-3 are BN for 2m temps.  Then, they are warm from then on...another Weekly bias IMHO.  That said, the 850s are cold from day 35 onward in the nation's mid-section w a very similar look to the current pattern, and the 500 pattern supports that.  I would suspect 2m temps correct if that 500 config verifies.  Roughly, looks like a warm-up from say Jan 20 - Feb 5...then winter comes back.  Now, keep in mind the Euro operational runs and EPS were cold at both 0z and 12z today and have trended that way for a few days.  We will see if the MJO/SOI change changes future Weeklies 500 patterns.  I sincerely doubt that NA loses its cold given this pattern which has been stubborn to move.

[jaxjagman]

Cant look more Nina than this on the weeklies,not horrid but not great.

[jaxjagman]

Waiting on the Seasonal's to come out and ill start the severe thread for 2018,everything seems positive for some early season severe storms.CPC/IRI is showing a = ENSO.CFS looks juicy,don't really expect the seasonal's to be any different

[nrgjeff]

Weekly 2m temps are actually a little colder than I'd infer from the Continental US 500 mb chart. Oh, but Alaska and/or Northern Canada keeps blocky most weeks. Weather pattern looks active which is a plus. Majority cutters is likely, but all it takes is one phased right. SER only visits occasionally, not at all a fixture. We tried buried flow and it's just cold and dry. I'm game for the forecast January pattern. Happy New Year!

[Carvers Gap]

Been out of pocket all day.  Something to watch...the 12z Euro has an inland runner on d7.  The EPS is a cutter and likely correct.  But cutters have been tough to come by this winter. The 18z GFS even tries to cook something up.   I do think we see one or two...but the cold suppressing systems is still my concern until mid Jan.  JB is really banging the warm drum for the second half of Jan(edit...)...and I can't say that I disagree.  It just does not look like at this time that the cold holds more than two...JB says three...weeks.  Either way, looks like the wx models are trying to cook something hip between d7-15.  JB says the warm may be as spectacular as the cold.  The EPS really likes a cooler SE.  Time will tell.  I suspect we get one or two chances before the warm-up.

 

Of note, MRX is concerned that precip gets here quickly on Sunday and catches the retreating cold before it can leave.