Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[AMZ8990]

18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

In this set up, which who knows if it will happen, cold air is almost always slower to retreat than modeled. So in that case the Canadian may be closer than the Euro with the more extensive and extended freezing precip. This is showing .25-.5 precip falling as sleet. I think that converts to .75 to 1.5 inches of sleet. Put that down and add .25-.4 freezing rain to it and you get an ice block special.

 

Yeah, that would make for an extra icy couple of days.  Anytime you mix sleet on top of or below freezing rain, it gets sketchy.  I lived up in Maine during the infamous ice storm of 98.  You talk about a wild scene, it was one heck of a sight.  Roads were like ice rinks!!

[Carvers Gap]

Ten days out....only twenty more Euro runs until then.  As for tomorrow night's system, the short range models continue to come slightly north and slightly intensify w each run.  Pick an hour on the NAM and toggle it back the last few runs at 500...see a trend?  The energy in the southern Plains sneaks further north with each run on the NAM and RGEM.  Not a big storm, but the models have trended away from suppressing the storm into Louisiana and now precip is into our southern forum areas in southern Arkansas and northern MS/AL.  I would not be surprised at all for southwest TN to trend into this w some light precip.  If so, it tells me one thing....the models are overdoing the extent of the cold, likely due to no snowcover on the ground.  If the models miss on this system, can we trust them ten days out w the details?  They are doing reasonably well with the 500 pattern, but the surface details are not written in stone.  I suspect this pattern hold until mid January w the Big EPO ridge.  What is changing is how much energy is in the jet...after mid Jan I suspect we will have to fight the WAR.

[John1122]

Something must be wrong with the Canadian, it just will not let go of the idea of record setting cold when the other models are much warmer. 

[jaxjagman]

Saw the SOI this morning finally getting back into the positive area,after around close to 3-weeks  being a more Nino look.Strong wind burst upcoming around the IDL  the next couple days,so my guess its going stay back into a more Nina pattern upcoming and we should see region 4 start to fall off again

Looking at the BOM enso it's showing Nina hanging on through spring and possibly well into summer.

System going through Korea in two days so we should see a system around the 2nd week of Jan.Still looks like a POTENTIAL bigger system mid month,still in the long range but now the EPS is starting to pick up on this

[jaxjagman]

See what happens,it does look stormy though towards mid month.BSR (Bearing Sea Rule)maps

[jaxjagman]

Also look at the AO hinting at possibly tanking before or staying negative maybe

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Saw the SOI this morning finally getting back into the positive area,after around close to 3-weeks  being a more Nino look.Strong wind burst upcoming around the IDL  the next couple days,so my guess its going stay back into a more Nina pattern upcoming and we should see region 4 start to fall off again

Looking at the BOM enso it's showing Nina hanging on through spring and possibly well into summer.

System going through Korea in two days so we should see a system around the 2nd week of Jan.Still looks like a POTENTIAL bigger system mid month,still in the long range but now the EPS is starting to pick up on this

Good catch.  Almost surely going to be fighting the SER with that bouncing positive.  But that flip often signals a big EC storm as well in the short term, right?  

[PowellVolz]

Good catch.  Almost surely going to be fighting the SER with that bouncing positive.  But that flip often signals a big EC storm as well in the short term, right?  

Yes it does


.

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Good catch.  Almost surely going to be fighting the SER with that bouncing positive.  But that flip often signals a big EC storm as well in the short term, right?  

If we can catch a break,we can get a good over running event on that system the Euro showsD10.Slow that HP down would bend the jet and possibly have something to phase WITH.Otherwise that could be a big system on the east coast,but that could also help out with a 50/50 later on,to much to ponder right now..lol

[Kasper]

Welcome to the freezer! Carver I figured out how to add Gifs, I have a IPad Pro, simply create gif from hr to hr then add to iCloud Drive, click to choose files and upload image! 

[jaxjagman]

CMC  is relentless,i thought it would get milder and it just got colder..lol

[jaxjagman]

CMC  sets up a 50/50 and drops the Artic high into the Western Valley,a dream scenario for plumbers in the Tn Valley.But i'm not sure they'd even like that.Kinda like the perfect cold storm

[jaxjagman]

That would be amazing,need the perfect setup for it to happen but it would seem similar to the 1985 cold outbreak

[John1122]

The Canadian is basically on crazy island. But it does reconverge with the GFS to some extent late run in that it warms up and has a rainer. The GFS was just a cutter parade. But at least that's a pattern shake that may eventually get us out of the cold desert. 

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian is basically on crazy island. But it does reconverge with the GFS to some extent late run in that it warms up and has a rainer. The GFS was just a cutter parade. But at least that's a pattern shake that may eventually get us out of the cold desert. 

Agree,but it does make since of what it is showing,just no model agrees with it

[jaxjagman]

Thats a nice system on the 8th,system i was talking about into the 2nd week.Man i sure hope the -AO plays out and we can get some sort of blocking but the Euro is showing or hinting a huge system towards the Mid Month tonight

[John1122]

Every model went very warm with the system on the 8th or so, the Euro scours all cold out of the lower 48 except for the very northern edges of Minnesota.

[Carvers Gap]

The relax or pattern change is on all models now.  The 0z Euro seems to be having its usual bias by sending all energy into the SW at 500. However, the one trend that we absolutely do not want to see, is the retrograding of the WAR onto the eastern seaboard.  The flip in the SOI supports this.   The 0z EPS/GEPS and 6z GEFS have this feature late in their runs.  It could change, but this has been hinted at by the Weeklies and makes sense given the pattern.  In no way, shape, or form do we want to see the Western Atlantic Ridge over the East. (See my earlier JB post about this.) It would be stubborn to move and almost impenetrable by cold air. We would have to wait until late winter for the jet to weaken. Now the EPS, though it retrogrades the WAR, builds a PNA ridge.  That would place a fairly sharp trough in the center of the country.  It would be a warm/wet pattern here and great for winter in the northern Plains.  I was actually encouraged to see the cold air move East on the Euro around d15...but at 500 the ridge retrogrades and stops it.  That is very realistic and could be a problem for those who like winter.  What we need is for the WAR to retrograde eastward just enough to act like a pseudo block...just not too far like last night.  The base pattern could easily switch to much AN if those ensembles are correct.  The LR models have hinted at this for days...(the Euro appears too fast w the switch because it goes to that look where it sends everything into the SW.)  As a fan of cold and/or snow(prolonged winter wx), that is not a trend I want to see.  I am not a fan of a base warm pattern...even if it means very slightly better chances for snow.

[Carvers Gap]

I might add...the NE might actually like the pattern, but here in the SE the WAR would be a SER on steroids.  They would have their chances...not here.  Hopefully(likely changes?) that changes or gets pushed just far enough off the coast on future runs.

[Kasper]

Unfortunately, this is all to common in the SE, Post frontal snow! I despise having a week worth of cold and no precipitation! Hopefully we can sneak one in before the torch! 

[AMZ8990]

42 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Unfortunately, this is all to common in the SE, Post frontal snow! I despise having a week worth of cold and no precipitation! Hopefully we can sneak one in before the torch! 

You know things are bad when we're looking this far into the future for something to talk about.   

[John1122]

Canadian is stuck at 30 hours, maybe they pulled it if it's spitting out another -10 degree run for our area.

GFS is a mixed bag, but continues the theme of breaking the current dry pattern. Probably going to warm up and rain (shocker eh?) followed by another shot of cold. Then the battle sets up between cold and Atlantic ridging. The OP basically draws the line at the Smokies, the Ensembles draw it across the mid-state. 

It does look like blocking builds in the AO region and a nice +PNA develops and sends a lobe of cold down into Eastern Canada towards the end of the run. If we can get a front to hang up over Georgia and the Carolinas we maybe can score a winter event from it, the cold should be here with that +PNA/-AO combination if they come to pass. 

 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Canadian is stuck at 30 hours, maybe they pulled it if it's spitting out another -10 degree run for our area.

GFS is a mixed bag, but continues the theme of breaking the current dry pattern. Probably going to warm up and rain (shocker eh?) followed by another shot of cold. Then the battle sets up between cold and Atlantic ridging. The OP basically draws the line at the Smokies, the Ensembles draw it across the mid-state. 

It does look like blocking builds in the AO region and a nice +PNA develops and sends a lobe of cold down into Eastern Canada towards the end of the run. If we can get a front to hang up over Georgia and the Carolinas we maybe can score a winter event from it, the cold should be here with that +PNA/-AO combination if they come to pass. 

 

CMC seems to be working now,if anything it got colder..lol

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Canadian is stuck at 30 hours, maybe they pulled it if it's spitting out another -10 degree run for our area.

GFS is a mixed bag, but continues the theme of breaking the current dry pattern. Probably going to warm up and rain (shocker eh?) followed by another shot of cold. Then the battle sets up between cold and Atlantic ridging. The OP basically draws the line at the Smokies, the Ensembles draw it across the mid-state. 

It does look like blocking builds in the AO region and a nice +PNA develops and sends a lobe of cold down into Eastern Canada towards the end of the run. If we can get a front to hang up over Georgia and the Carolinas we maybe can score a winter event from it, the cold should be here with that +PNA/-AO combination if they come to pass. 

 

I switched it over to just precip vs frozen precip...TT is having update probs.  You can see the entire run on that mode.

[John1122]

37 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

CMC seems to be working now,if anything it got colder..lol

I've not looked yet, but thats amazing that it is that consistent 

[The Waterboy]

Hey guys, long time lurker from the Central Forum (Arkansas).  Great job with all the insight.  We're right next door so I read your forum a bunch.  

Off topic, but tough loss for the Vols today.  You guys have a helluva team.  Foul trouble got you in the end.  I've got nothing but respect for TN fans.  Alabama fans are a different story!

Now let's back to making some snow happen!!!!  

[AMZ8990]

6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Hey guys, long time lurker from the Central Forum (Arkansas).  Great job with all the insight.  We're right next door so I read your forum a bunch.  

Off topic, but tough loss for the Vols today.  You guys have a helluva team.  Foul trouble got you in the end.  I've got nothing but respect for TN fans.  Alabama fans are a different story!

Now let's back to making some snow happen!!!!  

You guys have a good team too, losing Williams really hurt us though.  Glad to see you posting in the Tennessee forum though, don't be a stranger!

[Carvers Gap]

Was reading JB this afternoon...MJO is showing signs of going into phase 3 of the MJO at a strengthening amplitude.  That would also give it a chance to make it to phase 4...though it does go COD prior to that.  But the trend is for warmer phases of the MJO.  

Now, my thoughts...Connects well to th SOI flip.  Connects well w a warm western Atlantic.  Also connects well to the models flipping back and forth at LR w the trough placement....my official guess now is that by mid January the trough will be in the West as the base pattern for the 3-4 week period beginning Jan 10-15.  How far west is the question.  I think it will be centered further east than most western troughs.  Maybe I can jinx it.  Thank me later.  What can save us?  -QBO, decent Pacific setup, current pattern may be stubborn to leave, climo.  But this is how I see things now...we are about to enter a time where the Atlantic will be extra hostile towards winter in the East.  If the EPO goes positive, we lose our advantage.  I certainly hope I am wrong.

[Carvers Gap]

In the short term, I am going to enjoy the cold.  MRX has TRI getting above freezing only on Weds afternoon for the entire week long forecast.  Not every winter that we see that.  TRI is still +1.4 for December.  That is why averages only work to a point.  Sometimes they just don't tell the entire story.  TRI is now reporting light snow and 34 degrees.  I suspected this frontal passage would squeeze out a few flakes.  At least we avoided the potential torch for the holidays.

[jaxjagman]

Looks like the GFS is on board with the CMC with the 50/50 this run,it got colder just not the extreme as the CMC,difference is the placement of the High.

 

Edit:Also the CMC has a stronger H