Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The 0z(edit) NAM does spit out light snow accumulations for NE TN beginning about hour 45 w/ some light snow showers. Again, read Roger's post. He is one of this site's top posters. Not saying anything big, but remember this energy is going to be sampled much better now. Need to watch for trends overnight w/ it. May be nothing. May be something. Powell put the ninja on me! edit...great post, Powell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Last 3 NAM’s . The 0z RGEM captures this as well. I have said multiple times that the total lack of precipitation was bizarre...no clippers, upslope, synoptic, etc. Well, there is some light upslope activity on the RGEM along w the Pacific moisture that races out in front. You can see the bands of light precipitation w it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The 12z NAM does spit out light snow accumulations for NE TN beginning about hour 45 w/ some light snow showers. Again, read Roger's post. He is one of this site's top posters. Not saying anything big, but remember this energy is going to be sampled much better now. Need to watch for trends overnight w/ it. May be nothing. May be something. Powell put the ninja on me! edit...great post, Powell.Probably very ratios also. Wouldn’t take much QPF to lay down a couple of inches. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, PowellVolz said: Probably very ratios also. Wouldn’t take much QPF to lay down a couple of inches. . After reading Roger Smith's, makes me wonder how strong that energy in the NW is. Seems to be over performing. At the very least, the higher elevations north of 40 may see some light snow showers w the first shot. I am interested to see if the southwest system can gain some latitude and impact areas south of 40 in middle and west TN. Don't have my hopes up, but not much else to watch at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 After reading Roger Smith's, makes me wonder how strong that energy in the NW is. Seems to be over performing. At the very least, the higher elevations north of 40 may see some light snow showers w the first shot. I am interested to see if the southwest system can gain some latitude and impact areas south of 40 in middle and west TN. Don't have my hopes up, but not much else to watch at the moment.At least we’re not totally dead at the moment. Not looking great but we still have something to watch. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: At least we’re not totally dead at the moment. Not looking great but we still have something to watch. . More interesting than anything. It is also a good test of how the models handle this system as this appears to be how energy will be entering NA for the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Weeklies update...Euro M Climate model. Cold holds until roughly the third week of Jan. Thaw is pushed back one week. Big EPO is a dominant feature in varying degrees for most of the run with a slight retrograde break during weeks 4 and 5, returns week 6. NAO is strongly positive. Like JB mentioned...with the warm water off the Atlantic coast and a strengthening seasonal jet, the SER will battle the cold coming out of the Plains. As such, the trough slowly retrogrades to the middle of the country. As the season goes into February it weakens and the 500 trough comes back. I rarely take seriously the 2m temps past week 4 because the are almost always warm, excluding their excellent job of identifying this pattern. Pattern makes sense and is not as wonky as usual if you know its bias. It does like to hold energy in the SW even on the Weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 One more Weeklies comment....Week 2 is normal precipitation w BN temps. Week 3 is AN precip w BN temps. edit: week 3 has a slight bit of AN in the very NE section of the forum area w the rest of E TN normal. Everyone else is BN. Looks like the best setup is days 10-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: One more Weeklies comment....Week 2 is normal precipitation w BN temps. Week 3 is AN precip w BN temps. Kinda makes since,if the Euro is right in the long range Asia is fixing to get active by the looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, jaxjagman said: Kinda makes since,if the Euro is right in the long range Asia is fixing to get active by the looks What are you seeing out there? Looks like the Weeklies really like a trough near Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 It is crazy how cold the 0z CMC is. No snow on the ground and BN temps night after night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What are you seeing out there? Looks like the Weeklies really like a trough near Japan. So far the potential for a stormy pattern around close to mid month,but this could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Definitely noticing an uptick in activity on the CMC and GFS after d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Definitely noticing an uptick in activity on the CMC and GFS after d7. Yeah,only if it were more reliable,it still shows -10 in Mid Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Definitely noticing an uptick in activity on the CMC and GFS after d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 That Euro run might have been the worst yet. It just smashed everything. No more coastal storm at all. Middling cold, 20s/30s highs and teens for lows for the most part and maybe a dusting of snow in parts of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Dry city on the EURO. The precip around Memphis was light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Still looks to me like week two, especially the second half, is when things get more active. If there is such a thing as model consensus at that range, looks to be so. The 6z GFS has a couple of fleeting northern stream chances inside of ten days even. The STJ is not helping things in addition to the EPO ridge. Looks like the EPS would keep the EPO ridge if its continuous error of hold energy in the SW is true yet again. It appears there is decent agreement at 500 past d8, including a more active southern stream. I have noticed at least one or two systems coming into southern Cal on various runs. That is a good sign for winter wx in the upper South. Either way, impressive cold arriving. I will also add that there will still be weak northern stream features that will work there way down from Canada. Models are notorious for missing those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 RGEM is trying to piece together some flake at the end of its run. Something to keep an eye on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Each of the last 4 cold winters ('10,'11,'14,'15) here we got decent snow but only in 11 was it associated with the early January blast.....the primary snow fell in more climo favored February and the Euro weeklies certainly leave the door open for a repeat if that. I would not give up on this winter yet as the BN spells have been fairly repetitive in the last five or six months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: Each of the last 4 cold winters ('10,'11,'14,'15) here we got decent snow but only in 11 was it associated with the early January blast.....the primary snow fell in more climo favored February and the Euro weeklies certainly leave the door open for a repeat if that. I would not give up on this winter yet as the BN spells have been fairly repetitive in the last five or six months. Great to see you post, Bob! We were about to send out a search party for you to make sure you were still alive......... haha Agree regarding not giving up. Several past winters we were sitting in this spot in late December still trying to find a way to flip cold from record warmth. At least we have found repetitive cold delivery. Should that continue we should have chances. The EPO seems to want to stay in our favor. Also, the AO is projected to take a dive per some modeling. The current suppression we are seeing now was modeled as a long duration overrunning winter event just a few days ago. That boundary is in the central Gulf of MX, lol. I wouldn't trust anything beyond day 3-4 at this point with such a fast flow. I will admit the maps showing a cutter attacking the backside of an polar high makes sense, but there are ways something like that could also take the low road. We just need more time to see what things may look like as we exit the current northern stream domination regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The meso models all bring the snow showers down into the forum while the globals keep them north. Possibly the meso models handling NW flow better than the globals and being able to see the finer details better. Not much to get excited about but maybe a dusting in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Euro is back to a major mixed bag storm at day 9/10 as the pattern finally seems to change. Ice storm in areas too. Obviously subject to change, including massive suppression. But we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Canadian is a more extreme version of the Euro, lots of ice in the forum region. Both are storms attacking the retreating Arctic cold and it gets icy. The Canadian obviously has a cold bias. Either way it's nice to see potential in the forum for some form of pattern shift. I was beginning to think it would be much longer, as some runs had been dry for 14 days or so. The few inches of snow that the Canadian puts down as the moisture reaches the deeper cold in the east, followed by the massive ice storm taking place forum wide. Especially devastating for Arkansas but this is ice storm warning criteria state wide. There's also fairly decent sleet in the mix too during each transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 TDOT not taking any chances this weekend in Memphis and The surrounding counties. Their salting some roads and all bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 23 minutes ago, John1122 said: Canadian is a more extreme version of the Euro, lots of ice in the forum region. Both are storms attacking the retreating Arctic cold and it gets icy. The Canadian obviously has a cold bias. Either way it's nice to see potential in the forum for some form of pattern shift. I was beginning to think it would be much longer, as some runs had been dry for 14 days or so. The few inches of snow that the Canadian puts down as the moisture reaches the deeper cold in the east, followed by the massive ice storm taking place forum wide. Especially devastating for Arkansas but this is ice storm warning criteria state wide. There's also fairly decent sleet in the mix too during each transition. That ice storm potenTial is eerily similar to a setup they were forecasting about a week ago. The only difference is the recent run doesn't bring the significant ice into west Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That ice storm potenTial is eerily similar to a setup they were forecasting about a week ago. The only difference is the recent run doesn't bring the significant ice into west Tn. Not buying what any model is selling at this point, especially that far out! The potential is there but that's it at this point, but that may be our best and only chance unfortunately, hopefully the cold holds and we get more snow from that setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Saw some flakes this morning in White Bluff. Unfortunately they were just frosted. Hahahahahahahah, you know it's bad when we have the cold air but the best we can do is Tony the Tiger!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 21 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That ice storm potenTial is eerily similar to a setup they were forecasting about a week ago. The only difference is the recent run doesn't bring the significant ice into west Tn. In this set up, which who knows if it will happen, cold air is almost always slower to retreat than modeled. So in that case the Canadian may be closer than the Euro with the more extensive and extended freezing precip. This is showing .25-.5 precip falling as sleet. I think that converts to .75 to 1.5 inches of sleet. Put that down and add .25-.4 freezing rain to it and you get an ice block special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 It's the NAM I know,but worth keeping an eye on, a jog 100 miles north and we would have a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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