Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[PowellVolz]

I feel like we’re trying to catch a hummingbird.


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[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man...the Euro found a way to back that coastal further west.  How in the world?

That makes me happy! Haven't been able to look.

Not that far west....weird run.  Should have been OTS.  JB mentioned that this storm may actually go due north if it is real.  Right now...needs some work to get back this way.  EPS should tell us something.

[jaxjagman]

Impressive cold anyways,been awhile since we've seen it this cold,this early in winter

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC28 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) THU 12Z 28-DEC 16.9 -0.3 03006 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 28-DEC 32.1 16.6 32.5 3.3 04003 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 29-DEC 36.6 27.9 28.6 11.4 34005 0.00 0.00 81 FRI 06Z 29-DEC 28.7 22.4 23.2 6.3 34004 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 29-DEC 23.7 21.3 21.8 4.5 36003 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 18Z 29-DEC 38.2 21.2 38.4 8.6 10003 0.00 0.00 59 SAT 00Z 30-DEC 41.3 28.8 28.8 15.5 07004 0.00 0.00 9 SAT 06Z 30-DEC 31.0 25.0 25.9 14.5 17003 0.00 0.00 92 SAT 12Z 30-DEC 27.3 25.4 26.6 14.2 28004 0.00 0.00 62 SAT 18Z 30-DEC 41.5 26.3 41.6 14.0 32007 0.00 0.00 91 SUN 00Z 31-DEC 41.6 27.9 27.6 13.9 35009 0.00 0.00 49 SUN 06Z 31-DEC 27.6 17.5 17.4 -4.6 01008 0.00 0.00 3 SUN 12Z 31-DEC 17.4 14.3 14.2 -8.4 02007 0.00 0.00 38 SUN 18Z 31-DEC 25.1 13.9 25.4 -7.7 02005 0.00 0.00 32 MON 00Z 01-JAN 27.4 21.9 21.9 -5.3 00007 0.00 0.00 4 MON 06Z 01-JAN 21.9 17.8 17.7 -1.5 36007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 01-JAN 17.7 14.0 13.9 1.7 36008 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 01-JAN 23.3 13.2 23.5 -5.6 00007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 02-JAN 24.8 19.2 19.1 -3.5 35007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 02-JAN 19.1 13.4 13.3 -14.0 01006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 02-JAN 13.2 9.5 9.5 -11.1 02005 0.00 0.00 10 TUE 18Z 02-JAN 23.8 9.0 24.1 -10.7 01003 0.00 0.00 44 WED 00Z 03-JAN 27.4 21.9 22.1 -6.8 36003 0.00 0.00 96 WED 06Z 03-JAN 22.6 20.7 20.7 -5.3 03002 0.00 0.00 100 WED 12Z 03-JAN 21.2 18.8 18.8 -3.4 25002 0.00 0.00 97 WED 18Z 03-JAN 31.4 18.0 31.6 -13.7 25004 0.00 0.00 99 THU 00Z 04-JAN 33.1 27.6 27.5 -5.2 29005 0.00 0.00 100 THU 06Z 04-JAN 27.5 16.1 15.8 -0.2 32012 0.01 0.01 98 THU 12Z 04-JAN 15.8 7.7 7.6 -6.0 32011 0.00 0.00 92 THU 18Z 04-JAN 15.2 7.2 15.4 -5.9 32010 0.00 0.00 65 FRI 00Z 05-JAN 18.9 14.7 14.6 -5.3 32006 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 05-JAN 14.6 10.8 10.8 -7.1 31004 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 05-JAN 11.2 9.9 11.0 -9.5 25003 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 05-JAN 25.6 11.0 26.0 -15.8 22006 0.00 0.00 72 SAT 00Z 06-JAN 31.3 24.0 24.3 -11.0 23006 0.00 0.00 10 SAT 06Z 06-JAN 24.4 18.1 17.8 3.7 34008 0.00 0.00 1 SAT 12Z 06-JAN 17.8 11.3 11.3 -1.5 35006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 06-JAN 22.5 10.4 22.8 -0.7 05003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 07-JAN 26.7 19.9 19.8 2.1 08004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 07-JAN 20.1 17.6 17.7 2.3 15006 0.00 0.00 29 SUN 12Z 07-JAN 21.4 17.6 21.5 0.6 18008 0.00 0.00 0

[Kasper]

This is a quote from HKY_WX in the SE forum..

 

 

 

This is a strong phasing/cutoff scenario... An Atlantic coast bomb... Could totally see this one as an Eastern GA/SC/NC special. Given the cold boundary layer conditions.  Not ideal for western sections, unless we see some STJ moisture/overrunning waves become involved or drawn in... Will need to watch that...

 

However, as I said yesterday, the setup for next week favors a strong phase/cutoff over the East Coast. Some are looking for a Gulf storm and are confused a bit. This to me looks like more of an Atlantic system/situation with a late phase. If you look back at some sfc maps from Jan 2000, the SLP is actually drawn WNW from offshore towards HAT as it bombs/phases and then rides the coast. Similar to what the Euro is showing. However, given the look of the waves, I think an earlier phase than what it is showing would be likely. Too early to go into details, but should be a fun one to follow perhaps/hopefully.

 

i think some folks might be in for a surprise! 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I feel like we’re trying to catch a hummingbird.


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Great anology.   Too many moving parts.  Even the Euro blizzard on the coast is a finesse deal.  I do like where the pattern is after that storm much like John stated...but the stj is just dead right now.  It is not so much the cold being overpowering as the absence of storms in the subtropical jet.  But that blizzard shows just how difficult it is to keep it dry in this region, maybe not MBY on this run though.   Looks like upslope snows after the storm and a cold front w precip.  Way out there w plenty of uncertainty.  

[ShawnEastTN]

This is a quote from HKY_WX in the SE forum..
 
 
 
This is a strong phasing/cutoff scenario... An Atlantic coast bomb... Could totally see this one as an Eastern GA/SC/NC special. Given the cold boundary layer conditions.  Not ideal for western sections, unless we see some STJ moisture/overrunning waves become involved or drawn in... Will need to watch that...
 
However, as I said yesterday, the setup for next week favors a strong phase/cutoff over the East Coast. Some are looking for a Gulf storm and are confused a bit. This to me looks like more of an Atlantic system/situation with a late phase. If you look back at some sfc maps from Jan 2000, the SLP is actually drawn WNW from offshore towards HAT as it bombs/phases and then rides the coast. Similar to what the Euro is showing. However, given the look of the waves, I think an earlier phase than what it is showing would be likely. Too early to go into details, but should be a fun one to follow perhaps/hopefully.
 
i think some folks might be in for a surprise! 

Interesting, an earlier phase would make it further west. If we can get it inland/inside hatteras, then eastern forum area might be able to get something.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Impressive cold anyways,been awhile since we've seen it this cold,this early in winter

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC28 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) THU 12Z 28-DEC 16.9 -0.3 03006 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 28-DEC 32.1 16.6 32.5 3.3 04003 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 29-DEC 36.6 27.9 28.6 11.4 34005 0.00 0.00 81 FRI 06Z 29-DEC 28.7 22.4 23.2 6.3 34004 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 29-DEC 23.7 21.3 21.8 4.5 36003 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 18Z 29-DEC 38.2 21.2 38.4 8.6 10003 0.00 0.00 59 SAT 00Z 30-DEC 41.3 28.8 28.8 15.5 07004 0.00 0.00 9 SAT 06Z 30-DEC 31.0 25.0 25.9 14.5 17003 0.00 0.00 92 SAT 12Z 30-DEC 27.3 25.4 26.6 14.2 28004 0.00 0.00 62 SAT 18Z 30-DEC 41.5 26.3 41.6 14.0 32007 0.00 0.00 91 SUN 00Z 31-DEC 41.6 27.9 27.6 13.9 35009 0.00 0.00 49 SUN 06Z 31-DEC 27.6 17.5 17.4 -4.6 01008 0.00 0.00 3 SUN 12Z 31-DEC 17.4 14.3 14.2 -8.4 02007 0.00 0.00 38 SUN 18Z 31-DEC 25.1 13.9 25.4 -7.7 02005 0.00 0.00 32 MON 00Z 01-JAN 27.4 21.9 21.9 -5.3 00007 0.00 0.00 4 MON 06Z 01-JAN 21.9 17.8 17.7 -1.5 36007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 01-JAN 17.7 14.0 13.9 1.7 36008 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 01-JAN 23.3 13.2 23.5 -5.6 00007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 02-JAN 24.8 19.2 19.1 -3.5 35007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 02-JAN 19.1 13.4 13.3 -14.0 01006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 02-JAN 13.2 9.5 9.5 -11.1 02005 0.00 0.00 10 TUE 18Z 02-JAN 23.8 9.0 24.1 -10.7 01003 0.00 0.00 44 WED 00Z 03-JAN 27.4 21.9 22.1 -6.8 36003 0.00 0.00 96 WED 06Z 03-JAN 22.6 20.7 20.7 -5.3 03002 0.00 0.00 100 WED 12Z 03-JAN 21.2 18.8 18.8 -3.4 25002 0.00 0.00 97 WED 18Z 03-JAN 31.4 18.0 31.6 -13.7 25004 0.00 0.00 99 THU 00Z 04-JAN 33.1 27.6 27.5 -5.2 29005 0.00 0.00 100 THU 06Z 04-JAN 27.5 16.1 15.8 -0.2 32012 0.01 0.01 98 THU 12Z 04-JAN 15.8 7.7 7.6 -6.0 32011 0.00 0.00 92 THU 18Z 04-JAN 15.2 7.2 15.4 -5.9 32010 0.00 0.00 65 FRI 00Z 05-JAN 18.9 14.7 14.6 -5.3 32006 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 05-JAN 14.6 10.8 10.8 -7.1 31004 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 05-JAN 11.2 9.9 11.0 -9.5 25003 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 05-JAN 25.6 11.0 26.0 -15.8 22006 0.00 0.00 72 SAT 00Z 06-JAN 31.3 24.0 24.3 -11.0 23006 0.00 0.00 10 SAT 06Z 06-JAN 24.4 18.1 17.8 3.7 34008 0.00 0.00 1 SAT 12Z 06-JAN 17.8 11.3 11.3 -1.5 35006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 06-JAN 22.5 10.4 22.8 -0.7 05003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 07-JAN 26.7 19.9 19.8 2.1 08004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 07-JAN 20.1 17.6 17.7 2.3 15006 0.00 0.00 29 SUN 12Z 07-JAN 21.4 17.6 21.5 0.6 18008 0.00 0.00 0

Like a few hours above freezing.  Wow!  

[tnweathernut]

7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

17 minutes ago, Kasper said:

 

Interesting, an earlier phase would make it further west. If we can get it inland/inside hatteras, then eastern forum area might be able to get something.

If you could get yesterdays trough structure with an earlier phase, that might put some of east TN in the mix for snow.  Having the trough slip a bit east isn't a good sign, although the capture appeared to be earlier so the low was further west than 0z.  I would think the individual euro member solutions that showed east TN snow were from a trough axis that was west of the OP and also faster interaction between the streams.

[Kasper]

There are 3 short waves that phase into the trough on the Euro and it has a closed off circulation over the southern apps at 168! Another Quote from Grit in SE thread, Has anyone looked at the Euro and seen this?

[Kasper]

Holy Crap, if this bombs like this it won't matter that its hugging the coast! We will get hammered

[John1122]

I'd rather it be 65 than desert dry and 9 degrees. If I'm going to pay big heating costs it's truly a gut punch to have to do it with no snow. 

The Euro dried out from 00z, reversed course on the N/W trend. No good news from that run from my perspective. 

[tnweathernut]

Just now, John1122 said:

I'd rather it be 65 than desert dry and 9 degrees. If I'm going to pay big heating costs it's truly a gut punch to have to do it with no snow. 

The Euro dried out from 00z, reversed course on the N/W trend. No good news from that run from my perspective. 

Agree.  I haven't seen it yet, but word is the ensembles are east of the Euro OP.  If true, the only people that need to keep an excitement level about this storm would be our friends from the central Carolinas and points north.   

A better setup just beyond day 9/10 shown on the Euro.  I know it's long range and probably wrong, but it looks to hold more potential for our region than anything we are looking at right now..... 

[Carvers Gap]

Looked like early on the EPS was west of the op and then went east of it. This is the way I look at this storm  Seven days ago on modeling, it looked like we had a lock for a storm today.  Today's Euro is just one possibility.  It is 6-7 days away.  Much can and will change.  That was a big time finesse run.  But here is one thing....most models did show nearly vertical moving waves several days ago. So the possibility is there. Definite storm signal, though, for the EC.  I give equal chances to nothing, just inland or just off the coast.  As mentioned, we need an earlier phase...but not by much if this moves nearly vertical up the coast as suggested.  But who knows if this is right.  The models have been bad and continue to be so.  If you showed me the map for the next ten days and I had not seen a model...I would say there would be potential.    We begin w an elongated Arctic front that deepens and then reloads.  Rarely does that sequence of events equal dry weather here.  Usually there is upslope snow, clippers, synoptic chances, etc. After last week, I don't trust the models past 72 hours and definitely not 6-7 days.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC is finally on TT.  Have only looked at temps.  Hour 216 would push all time record lows.  -19 for my gridpoint.  -18 for Nashville.  Highly unlikely that verifies, but still impressive to see.

[Carvers Gap]

As cold as it has been this month...we are AN at TRI and will likely finish that way.  We are +2.1 today.  When someone looks back at this analog years from now, the cold spell will be split over two months.    This is why analog time frames are deceptive.  We will have seventeen BN days for December.  But a one week torch made it impossible to erase the anomaly.  

[PowellVolz]

MRX sees what we are looking/thinking about with the big system later next week. They realize it could easily change.


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[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX sees what we are looking/thinking about with the big system later next week. They realize it could easily change.


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i would agree.  Late week.  LONG way to go.

[AMZ8990]

Interesting that NWS has most of the state of ARK under a special weather statement.  Most of it had to do with wind chills through Saturday night into Sunday but then they also talk about a chance of some wintry precip on sartuday night into Sunday morning.   They mention how road conditions could become hazardous quick if anything does fall due to the temps.   Its nothing too serious at this point it seems but I did find that interesting that they entertained the idea of some snow in their statement.

[John1122]

24 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Interesting that NWS has most of the state of ARK under a special weather statement.  Most of it had to do with wind chills through Saturday night into Sunday but then they also talk about a chance of some wintry precip on sartuday night into Sunday morning.   They mention how road conditions could become hazardous quick if anything does fall due to the temps.   Its nothing too serious at this point it seems but I did find that interesting that they entertained the idea of some snow in their statement.

Arkansas and even near Memphis probably has a better chance of something than the rest of the region due to the angle of the moisture coming from the midwest before it gets squashed out.

[AMZ8990]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Arkansas and even near Memphis probably has a better chance of something than the rest of the region due to the angle of the moisture coming from the midwest before it gets squashed out.

I'm really hoping we can luck out and score a Hail Mary at the last second.  I've been watching the live radar and looking at the moisture your talking about.  Looks like some decent returns on snowfall for the areas suppsoed to be affected.

[Kasper]

We are going to have to sit back and wait...... the pattern will change, right now those Highs are brutal and absolutely shredding the short waves as they dive SE, not sure we will even see orographic snow at this point! Although it may get cold enough we may see those nice shiny ice crystals in the morning sunlight! 

[John1122]

The NAM has a few snow showers in West Tennessee still. Might not amount to much but anything is better than nothing. The 18z basically gives Jackson a dusting.

[Kasper]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The NAM has a few snow showers in West Tennessee still. Might not amount to much but anything is better than nothing. The 18z basically gives Jackson a dusting.

Winning! 

[John1122]

The GEFS gives us about .05 precip over the next 10 days, then gives 1.5-2 inches days 11-15, which is why you see the NOAA 8-14 map looking like it does. The question is, what will the precip type be if it comes to pass? The OP advertises it as a big snow event, the ensembles say more likely rain as the snow depth mean is less than 1 inch forum wide with that 1.5-2 inch precip mean over the 5 day period.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The NAM has a few snow showers in West Tennessee still. Might not amount to much but anything is better than nothing. The 18z basically gives Jackson a dusting.

That's a win in my book at this point!  It's just too bad we can't get the Midwest storm to drop down our way..

[John1122]

My point forecast for the next 7 days. If there was even 2 inches of snow on the ground we'd be taking at least 10 degrees off these temps, maybe more.

 

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 32. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. North wind around 10 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 20.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 8.

New Year's Day

Sunny and cold, with a high near 18.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 9.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 23.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Thursday

Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 18.

[Carvers Gap]

That is a significant jump north on the 0z NAM.  We have people in the southwest section of the forum area that may see frozen precipitation, especially in northern MS and AL.  It moved the precipitation shield almost 150 miles north around hour 60.  Even downstream in Georgia, it moved north.  My guess is that flurries would be into TN.

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

That's a win in my book at this point!  It's just too bad we can't get the Midwest storm to drop down our way..

That was a big jump.  One more and you are in business.  The entire system is healthier.  The high in TX has been creeping west for the past few runs and is opening the door for the system to come a bit more north.

[Carvers Gap]

Maybe this is why the 0z NAM seems a bit more juiced.  This is why observations make a big difference.  The energy for the weekend system is coming onto the PAC Northwest coast.   

 

[PowellVolz]

Last 3 NAM’s









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