tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 If we keep the trough centered over the east coast we will stay mostly dry till the cows come home. Really need that to retrograde. I may eat my words, but I'd rather take my chances with a cutter than days upon days of 30's for highs and 10's for lows and not a drop of precip in sight. We probably will find the best chance to score on the backside of the departing cold outbreak. But those types of deals are usually mixed bags and or wintry stuff changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 We are either going to see a memorable cold outbreak that we will talk to our kids about...or the cold is over modeled and we see precipitation. It can't be that bone dry. The Great Lakes are not frozen. There would at least be some bands of precipitation off the Lakes, right? The can't freeze that quickly. We know Erie is still open and it is "small" compared to the other GLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Pretty crazy late in the GFS run to see all of the ridges at 500 only to look at the 2m surface temps and see the exact same pattern that we have now w looming severe cold. The EPO reloads that run. Might be feedback. Might not. But if that transpires, this cold spell will be one to write home about...good and bad. Hey, maybe we just need to make our own snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Hey, maybe we just need to make our own snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro suppresses the next wave as all other models do. Then gives south Texas, Louisiana etc their second major winter storm of the last month. It actually throws parts of our forum a half inch to an inch and a half with higher totals in the mountains and was maybe 75-100 miles further north and west than 12z with it's snow axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, John1122 said: Euro suppresses the next wave as all other models do. Then gives south Texas, Louisiana etc their second major winter storm of the last month. It actually throws parts of our forum a half inch to an inch and a half with higher totals in the mountains and was maybe 75-100 miles further north and west than 12z with it's snow axis. i think the euro has it closer to correct in this situation. I think that storm gives NC and parts of Georgia, SC a storm of some sort. I just wish it could dig earlier and a bit further west for us. This fast flow just ain't getting it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 06Z GEFS says forget about it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 42 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: 06Z GEFS says forget about it lol That's depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 One Bright spot the 0Z Euro has a wave developing in the gulf on the 2nd that as of 0Z sends very light precip plateau east in the forum. If that were like the most recent storm that went through the carolinas then much more of the forum would see snow the Euro vastly under modeled the NW precip shield of that storm. Places that were modeled to only get a dusting to nothing got several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Funny how the script may be turning where GFS has gone from 'our only hope' to perhaps squashing all hope unnecessarily. Suppression has reigned supremely this winter, but usually anytime you get a low forming along the coast, that's $ for our viewing area. Back on December 8, that L was way hundreds of miles south over the Gulf. Yep and Dec 8th storm modeled virtually no precip in Tennessee except the mountains bordering NC, and measurable snow occurred 40 miles west of that. Border areas were to only see a dusting to an inch and many got over 6". If the Euro can hang on to this one and evolve it with the normal NW tick, favorable Gulf type low this could be good one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Best to watch the ensembles at range...here are the low placements on the EPS. Major adjustment westward w last night’s run. The slps were even clustered west of the control. Notice that the stronger lows are right along the coast. Anyone think this storm will be weak? This is an occasion where there is prob limited room to come back west...but there is some room. For those of us in the east, we just need an inland runner. At seven days out, if it keeps trending like it did from 12z to 0z, it could be an Apps runner. <sarcasm> Seriously, at six days I will take that given that models bias at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Both the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS depict a reloading of the EPO ridge after d10. Might not be great news for snow, but if you like cold winters wx...it is good. The good news on the EPS is that it “appears” to want to center the trough further west(compared to now) once its usual bias of draggging the low under the EPO ridge is corrected. It has been correcting for several runs...remember a week ago when it was correcting, appears similar. The SER will try to fight back all winter IMO...and you might say well where is it now when we need it? Interesting question. Ask me on Jan 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 If we can't get any snow with this cold front then I just give up. Models continually push storms on us in the long range only to lose them by days 4 and closer. That's the pattern I'm seeing right now, lol. BTW, If the southeastern thread creates 1 more storm thread for a darn fantasy storm then I'm gonna lose my ****. They've single handily jinxed every threat we've had!!!! That's my vent session for today, everyone have a blessed day... AZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Morning thoughts 1. Trough still too far east. Maybe when it pulls back there will be enough residual cold left we find a way to snow. 2. Cold and dry, followed by colder and more dry, followed by..........? blah, blah, blah 3. Ice is still a concern with anything that attacks the backside of the last departing BIG high. 4. I think the Carolina boys/girls will have a snowstorm on their hands just after the New Year. 5. What happened to all the CPC maps saying above average precip in the 6-10? 6. I am not sure I have ever felt like we simultaneously had a winter that wouldn't start and a winter that wouldn't end at the same time.... lol On a positive note, we should all be able to have fun shocking the crap out of people over the next week or so.... hopefully modeling throws a bone soon to get me back on the train filled with optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 45 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: If we can't get any snow with this cold front then I just give up. Models continually push storms on us in the long range only to lose them by days 4 and closer. That's the pattern I'm seeing right now, lol. BTW, If the southeastern thread creates 1 more storm thread for a darn fantasy storm then I'm gonna lose my ****. They've single handily jinxed every threat we've had!!!! That's my vent session for today, everyone have a blessed day... AZ We don’t create threads until we see the whites of its eyes. LOL. Hey...general wx talk now...JB says the transition to a warmer pattern is delayed. Says convection patterns in the Indian and western Pacific are modeled to put a stout SER over the East after mid Jan. The question that he has is how much of a push does the cold have east. Says the seasonal strengthening of the jet will try to connect warm water off Baja w the warm water off the EC. Says the cold should go to the west or center of the country. He showed the Jamstec which is very warm for weeks 3-4. Also says the cold could possible return as the jet weakens during late winter to a strength similar to now. Now...that fits his forecast not so coincidentally...but the Weeklies looked similar on Monday. The Weeklies run might be interesting tonight as it finally was derived from a cold 0z. Anyway, it has to get warmer, right? I can see this winter flipping warm or just continuing w cold intermittently. Either way, we still have two months of time...just hate not seeing a chance for snow with such cold in place. One last JB thought...everyone should enjoy the magnitude of the cold that is coming. We don’t see that everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: If we can't get any snow with this cold front then I just give up. Models continually push storms on us in the long range only to lose them by days 4 and closer. That's the pattern I'm seeing right now, lol. BTW, If the southeastern thread creates 1 more storm thread for a darn fantasy storm then I'm gonna lose my ****. They've single handily jinxed every threat we've had!!!! That's my vent session for today, everyone have a blessed day... AZ I try to ignore the models and just trust the climate. Here in north Alabama, we get a few inches of snow every few years, then the occasional historic storm every 20-30 years or so. Last big, lasting snowfall was 2011, and the one before that was the 1993 superstorm. Seems like we had a big ice storm early in 2000, but that's all I can remember. So, we are going to strike out on snow most of the time, and that's not so bad because the Tennessee Valley climate is pretty lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yeah, it is easy to forget it is still December. I think most sense, me included, that this might be our extended cold that we get every winter...it is just early. The best months of winter are still ahead...but like many, I do sense that period may be warmer than normal. Patience, and PSU always says in the MA forum, is important. Like zippity stated...this is not an area with big snow climo. I still think this dry depiction in the model is suspect but not unprecedented. Still, two months of winter left to be written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Watching the models you have to shake your head when you see noaa outlooks for next few weeks. Most winters we would beg for outlooks like this am I wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The pattern is expected to relax in a week to 10 days, when it does look for a storm to come through. Broad sw flow will likely be the rule during that time. Models are advertising two systems in the 11-16 day range right now. Granted, it could be wrong but I feel like out best chance at precip will be after this cold pattern breaks down. We've prospered snow-wise, in the past with a Pacific driven cold pattern that lacked a -NAO but there was more SE ridging in place to keep us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Man, the cold on the CMC is just brutal. I know it is probably overdoing it without any snow cover, but it just keeps plunging us into the ice age run after run. Miami is even close to freezing. There is snow cover along the SC and GA coastline on the image below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12z cmc showing -30s in Illinois wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not sure why Tropical isn't updating the NAM or the GEM, but the NAM fully embraced the GFS and now barely has precip reaching Florida. The GEM is still suppression city and frigid through 120. Temps are below 0 from basically I-40 and points north on January 2nd. It's around 20-30 degrees colder than the GFS again. Hard to believe they could be that different this close to the event. I simply can't believe the GEM due to lack of snow cover. It often has a cold bias too, but I've never seen it this extreme. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not sure why Tropical isn't updating the NAM or the GEM, but the NAM fully embraced the GFS and now barely has precip reaching Florida. The GEM is still suppression city and frigid through 120. Temps are below 0 from basically I-40 and points north on January 2nd. It's around 20-30 degrees colder than the GFS again. Hard to believe they could be that different this close to the event. I simply can't believe the GEM due to lack of snow cover. It often has a cold bias too, but I've never seen it this extreme. I One could only wish that the reason for such a cold bias, is the fact there is actually snow on the ground under those cold temps and the models just haven't picked up on the moisture yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not sure why Tropical isn't updating the NAM or the GEM, but the NAM fully embraced the GFS and now barely has precip reaching Florida. The GEM is still suppression city and frigid through 120. Temps are below 0 from basically I-40 and points north on January 2nd. It's around 20-30 degrees colder than the GFS again. Hard to believe they could be that different this close to the event. I simply can't believe the GEM due to lack of snow cover. It often has a cold bias too, but I've never seen it this extreme. I I tend to agree, cold of that magnitude Is unheard of, Especially in the Deep South. When you see 95 percent of Florida below freezing, then you know something is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 32 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Watching the models you have to shake your head when you see noaa outlooks for next few weeks. Most winters we would beg for outlooks like this am I wrong. No your right wolf, this is a great look for us. I'm just not buying the precipitation probability. Other than the two rain storms we got last week it's been dry. One can only imagine what could of been if last weeks big storms came this week when we have cold air In place. As usual, timing has been against us This December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 hours ago, ShawnEastTN said: One Bright spot the 0Z Euro has a wave developing in the gulf on the 2nd that as of 0Z sends very light precip plateau east in the forum. If that were like the most recent storm that went through the carolinas then much more of the forum would see snow the Euro vastly under modeled the NW precip shield of that storm. Places that were modeled to only get a dusting to nothing got several inches. That's a nice look, if we could just get other models to jog that to the NW we would def be in business! Here's to waiting on more model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 12z Euro is cold and dry. Surprise. The 12z GEFS continues the pattern right through d16. Hopefully we can hang on to the cold long enough for the STJ to wake-up. I think after, as stated above, we potentially fight a stout SER...but there is part of me that wonders if this is one of those winters where the warm is pushed back and muted. Usually, it is the opposite to steal a line from the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Man...the Euro found a way to back that coastal further west. How in the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Man...the Euro found a way to back that coastal further west. How in the world?That makes me happy! Haven't been able to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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