Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 You know....after looking at the 18z GFS and reading the MRX comments...it is possible that we are focusing on the wrong feature. The streak of precipitation breaking out to our north of the system at 72 hours has been getting strong w/ each run. It is there because it is on the Arctic boundary. Keep an eye on that feature. Otherwise...another day of model mayhem appears on tap. Maybe the Euro will roll on time. All eyes on trends from the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 You know....after looking at the 18z GFS and reading the MRX comments...it is possible that we are focusing on the wrong feature. The streak of precipitation breaking out to our north of the system at 72 hours has been getting strong w/ each run. It is there because it is on the Arctic boundary. Keep an eye on that feature. Otherwise...another day of model mayhem appears on tap. Maybe the Euro will roll on time. All eyes on trends from the 0z NAM.I was just thinking about that jet reading MRX’s AFD. If lapse rates are ok we might have enough forcing to amplify precip, especially if NW flow gets going. I’ve seen orographic lift back the snow up all the way into the valley. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I like what the 18z NAM is cooking at hour 84. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I've been reading some discussion that the euro is starting to cave to other models! Any truth to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I've been reading some discussion that the euro is starting to cave to other models! Any truth to that? Certain parts are but suppression is still the story here and it’s not the only mod showing it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, PowellVolz said: Certain parts are but suppression is still the story here and it’s not the only mod showing it. . Well let's hope the next run starts a north trend, if not let's hope we get something along the boundary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The one time we get a stalled/slow boundary and we can’t get any overrunning. Any other time it would rain for 3 days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Even if the 18z gfs were correct I remember many times it's northern precip shield was under modeled and even MRX being caught by surprise. Plus high ratios there is still good odds of measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 it looks like the trend on the models is to start keying in on the wave behind the one that the GFS "had" as our storm. It is trending towards a more sheared out system as the piece behind it is able to separate from the flow. personally i think that will be the storm to watch. it has been trending west and digging more on every major models once they started picking up on it. My thinking is that the first storm flattens out and we miss out but the more it trends that way, the better off we are for the second piece. it's like we are robbing from Peter to pay Paul. I'm okay with that lol. Of course I'm no expert but that's what I see. That first wave sling shots the second one behind it and allows it to dig west. I bet we see that become more prominent on future runs if the models continue to dampen that wave and allow the separation that one needs. The +PNA really starts ramping up at this time and has been trending stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 32k and 12k NAM at 0z look pretty good. Maybe better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 00z NAM is slightly north of the GFS with the LP in Mexico. The big H is several hundred miles NW of the GFS position and 1060 vs 1056. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 59 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: it looks like the trend on the models is to start keying in on the wave behind the one that the GFS "had" as our storm. It is trending towards a more sheared out system as the piece behind it is able to separate from the flow. personally i think that will be the storm to watch. it has been trending west and digging more on every major models once they started picking up on it. My thinking is that the first storm flattens out and we miss out but the more it trends that way, the better off we are for the second piece. it's like we are robbing from Peter to pay Paul. I'm okay with that lol. Of course I'm no expert but that's what I see. That first wave sling shots the second one behind it and allows it to dig west. I bet we see that become more prominent on future runs if the models continue to dampen that wave and allow the separation that one needs. The +PNA really starts ramping up at this time and has been trending stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 0z NAM positives...It is only 48 hours until it hits the PAC coast which is well within its wheelhouse. The key seems to be that the energy digs into the NW mid-run and lifts the trough a bit in the SE allowing the storm to work under it. It has been consistent. Questions....the NAM is infamous for overdoing the strength of systems late in the run, BUT again it has been very consistent and that matters. It "seems" to be trending stronger. Is it correct in lifting the flow in front of it late in its run? That may be typical NAM bias late in its run. I mean it almost forms a slip in Louisiana. What I do like is the it makes sense in that the precipitation is on the Arctic boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Snowgoose in the SE thread said that he thinks the NAM has a tendency to be flatter between 72-84 after its most recent update...also said shearing may be a problem if extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Pack was just talking about this on SE thread Glanced at the 18z GEFS members...something that immediately stood out of the ones that hit is the return of the SE ridge due to the low in the NE lifting further north. If this occurs we may get our NW trend and a more amplified system, "less suppression" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Uh. Wtc 0z GFS @ 84? Major reg flag...precipitation went poof at 84(shear might be a problem but that is extreme) and the progressive nature of the GFS *edit*(very fast once past the Rockies now) were the issue. Might be real...but the slide from 78-84 was bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The entire continent dries out on the GFS/GGEM. That big high sprawls and shoves things down to Guatemala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The other red flag...there should be clippers and minor pieces of energy. We do not live in the Sahara. Major piece of streak of energy over TN at 126 and nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 CMC is crazy cold at 150+. We may or may not see snow...but there is incredible cold. If we were to get snow, that air mass would make a run at record lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Red flag, yes, but not one I find very believable. Regardless, I’m getting fatigued from this system so I may mentally check out while keeping fingers crossed. Progressive nature of the GFS...edit typo on my part. Find believable or not believable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 System 2 also ultra suppressed on the GEM. Hopefully this pattern breaks soon. I'll take a warm up and hope for a reshuffle into February at this rate. 0 to .01 precip over the next 9 days on the GEM with nothing in sight. 0 precip period on the GFS for the entire week. Forest fires will become a concern with much of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 -13 at 210 for the Nashville grid point on the CMC. No snow w/ those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Carvers Gap said: -13 at 210 for the Nashville grid point on the CMC. No snow w/ those temps. It's actually warmer than 12z was for our region. It basically has all time record lows in Illinois and close to them in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's actually warmer than 12z was for our region. It basically has all time record lows in Illinois and close to them in Missouri. Indeed...-18 at 216 on the 12z CMC. Crazy. Man, if we could score any snow at all...it is not going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Basically for whatever reason all models overamp/aren’t as flat d7+ in this pattern, then adjust as we close in, the last two potential events did this gotta hope for a storm when the pattern relaxes a bit. Suppression has been an issue in other La Niña/-QBO seasons of the past This post is from hickory in the SE forum, and its a sentiment i relate to. We keep grasping at the 8-10 day storms only to watch them slowly shrink and shear to the south which now appears to me the most bankable reoccuring pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 So much for a fighting SE ridge. We probably need a reshuffle. I am usually as optimistic as they come, but not seeing anything at 500 to get excited about. Perfect example of how widespread and lasting cold can be wasted in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I think we warm up and rain or snow in the 12-15 day range. It doesn't make much sense that we won't at least see the Arctic air wring out moisture but apparently that doesn't exist in our area over the next 8-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: So much for a fighting SE ridge. We probably need a reshuffle. I am usually as optimistic as they come, but not seeing anything at 500 to get excited about. Perfect example of how widespread and lasting cold can be wasted in the south. Yep, I'm already over this pattern. It actually shows that a SE ridge helps us if it's positioned correctly. Without it there's nothing to slow down the pattern or give us return flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Definitely knew that suppression was a concern beginning the pattern. Those cutters modeled early on were not realistic. I also don't find the bone dry look realistic. Have to think some clippers, etc, work into this pattern. Timing is the issue w/ the hour 72 system. The GFS is actually quicker w the energy over TX. It misses the Rockies energy. But the CMC supports it. As for a new pattern...looks to me like the EPO reloads after a few days break. After that cycle, not sure. But right now, after a week of model mayhem where models were consistent w AN precipitation...not sure I am ready to by the consistent dry look. It could certainly happen, but I bet we see a storm at some point w this cold. It might be as the pattern relaxes and reforms the EPO ridge or it might be one on short notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18F in Tampa at 228 w 7 in the Panhandle. Something just seems off w the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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