John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The Canadian is 1985ish at day 9. This is because it puts down 3-6 inches of snow region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This is Noon/1PM on January 4th. Incredible and almost never seen here, but even though it's rare, it's happened. The GFS is 30-40 degrees warmer at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 18z NAM...it is the NAM, but looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 42 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian is 1985ish at day 9. This is because it puts down 3-6 inches of snow region wide. Very similar to 85! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Kasper said: Very similar to 85! Does anyone know how much snow cover Knoxville had during that 85 outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Wurbus said: Does anyone know how much snow cover Knoxville had during that 85 outbreak? Trying to look that up, I believe that year Knoxville got down to -24 on or around the 22nd of January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z NAM...it is the NAM, but looks good. It honestly looks a bit like the GFS when the GFS was really cranking for us. Unfortunately, as you pointed out it's the 84 hour nam. So accuracy is always a question there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 After looking at all the 12z modeling, I think the best case scenario for our regional forum would be to try and score a light event with the first wave, then possibly a more meaningful wave (if we can get a little separation and a better dig into the southwest) for the system just after the New Year. Thinking BEST case scenario would include a widespread 1-2 type of event followed by a 2-4 type event. It's a fast flow with a lot of embedded northern stream energy so hopefully we can get something to slow down just enough to score. I have to keep telling myself it's only December. Feels like we have been tracking systems and patterns for an entire winter, not just a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Does anyone know how much snow cover Knoxville had during that 85 outbreak? 4-5 inches if I remember correctly. It snowed in Knoxville on the 17th but rained on the 19th. There was snow with the arctic front on the 20th. High ratio stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: After looking at all the 12z modeling, I think the best case scenario for our regional forum would be to try and score a light event with the first wave, then possibly a more meaningful wave (if we can get a little separation and a better dig into the southwest) for the system just after the New Year. Thinking BEST case scenario would include a widespread 1-2 type of event followed by a 2-4 type event. It's a fast flow with a lot of embedded northern stream energy so hopefully we can get something to slow down just enough to score. I have to keep telling myself it's only December. Feels like we have been tracking systems and patterns for an entire winter, not just a month. These Pacific dominated patterns can last a while. We will see how long this one lasts, but really, we've only had a few total days of really wintry weather in December, it's just that the models saw the cold coming from a long way out and kept spinning up day 7-9 fantasy storms that were just close enough to get us excited. Sadly day 4 or 5 reality hits but there's been another in the pipeline to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: It honestly looks a bit like the GFS when the GFS was really cranking for us. Unfortunately, as you pointed out it's the 84 hour nam. So accuracy is always a question there. That's a Win for the forum, albeit a questionable one. Lol. Atleast we've got plenty of potential. Usually we are lacking one or two things to have full blown potential for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said: That's a Win for the forum, albeit a questionable one. Lol. Atleast we've got plenty of potential. Usually we are lacking one or two things to have full blown potential for all of us. 95 percent of the times we never have to worry about if there will be a storm, it's always about temps. That's why it's tough to see all the cold pass and nothing happen. We really cashed in on the cold in a good portion of the forum a few years ago. In December 1983 it would get absolutely frigid for a few days then it would warm up and rain before going back to frigid. At least rain looks to be off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 December 85 was the record year for coldest temp in December in memphis as well. 85 was a cold winter statewide so there are a lot of similarities between the two timeframes. January 3 1985-Memphis was hit by a big snowstorm, dropped around 9-10 inches throughout the city and midsouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That's a Win for the forum, albeit a questionable one. Lol. Atleast we've got plenty of potential. Usually we are lacking one or two things to have full blown potential for all of us. Thats a jump for joy win in my book, if tnwxnuts' best case scenerio happened we would see 1-6 inches by ny week end while also witnessing near 85 cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 18z GFS is rolling, give us the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Does anyone know how much snow cover Knoxville had during that 85 outbreak? There was solid snowcover statewide. I think the Nashville area had at least 6-8". Got down to -20 here in Lewisburg. Brrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 Memphis got blasted again on January 29th, 1985 with another 6" too. Maybe this artic outbreak can bring The same kind of mojo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Looks like the energy is flatter and the High coming down from Canada is a tick stronger and just suppresses the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 ugh, just can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 I wouldn't worry too much, this is the look at HR96. You get a northern jog on that and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Pretty sure in Jan of 85’ Knoxville had 10 to 12” of snow when it got down to -24f. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackbearvol Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I remember being a kid and our power went off. We had to sleep around the fireplace. Grew up in savannah Tennessee over in West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 And GFS says bye bye to the storm around the 4th, we need a swing in a bad way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The Dreaded no Snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 It looks increasingly like we're going to have to wait for the patten to break down for anything to maybe happen. The WPC says it will break around day 8 or 9 and then the moisture will return. Just have to hope it catches the cold. 8-14 is predicted to be above normal precip and below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It looks increasingly like we're going to have to wait for the patten to break down for anything to maybe happen. The WPC says it will break around day 8 or 9 and then the moisture will return. Just have to hope it catches the cold. 8-14 is predicted to be above normal precip and below normal temps. Was just looking over the comments in the SE forum, they are losing their minds with each model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 At this point I would be thrilled to get 1-2 inches, and wait for a break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This is the predicted pattern reshuffle in the 8-14 day timeframe. The cold will begin to retreat and the return flow will provide plenty of moisture. Fortunately by then we will be getting close to the coldest time of the year for our region and below normal temps plus moisture is about all you can ever hope for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 For some reason it linked to yesterday's map but here's today's 8-14 day temp map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 MRX forecast discussion, Meh...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.