Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

CMC holds back and goes Miller A.  Not sure I believe it.

Me either.  South Carolina folks outta love that run though.

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC did the same thing as the 0z run but this time closer to the coast.  

[Carvers Gap]

Went back over the CMC.  It holds that energy back just enough that it detaches from the northern stream and digs further west.  It sends out two waves and jumps on the second.  The GFS is a frontal passage which I suspect is underdone.

[PowellVolz]

The positive is.... I’d rather be NW of the bullseye, than under it at this point.


.

[Carvers Gap]

Basically...the models are struggling with what to do when the energy comes over the Rockies...the GFS has a bias to be progressive.  Hold that energy back a bit and who knows?

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

The positive is.... I’d rather be NW of the bullseye, than under it at this point.


.

Agree.  Almost always.   Not sure I have seen a system trend south this winter.  It can happen...but timing issues are the deal now IMO.  Looks like a given that the energy will make it to the NW and dig....but the timing from that point is everything.

[Carvers Gap]

Still 72 hours before the precip moves out of the Rockies...one would think the window for big changes is dimishing...but still a wide range of solutions until we know the timing and how much that energy digs.  Note:  If you look at the CMC at 96,  a second piece of energy dives into the NW vortex(reference 500 vortex on Tropical Tidbits) and deepens it.  Not sure if the CMC is in the process of caving and got a bit strung out up there and left room for that second piece.

[Bango]

20 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Me too,  it's just one run though.  Plenty of time for changes to happen.

With the extreme cold it shouldnt take much precip to get favorable ratios, but eh, it also makes me wonder how much NW trend will be possible with the kind of extreme high pressures being thrown around.  I am glad someone in the south has potential, and given the difficulty of southern snow, its about all i can ask for.

[Kasper]

Model watching is exhausting, I'll just stand outside and hopefully wait for flakes to fall! 

[Carvers Gap]

Below is how a little difference can make for big changes over the eastern U.S.  The CMC is on the right.  The Canadian has two pieces of energy.  One dives into the back or the first piece of energy...and the CMC accentuates the second vortex.  I was mistaken...the GFS actually has two as well.  It absorbs the second.  New wrinkle.  The GFS slides are on the left.  Hours 78 and 96 are compared.

[Kasper]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Below is how a little difference can make for big changes over the eastern U.S.  The CMC is on the right.  The Canadian has two pieces of energy.  One dives into the back or the first piece of energy...and the CMC accentuates the second vortex.  I was mistaken...the GFS actually has two as well.  It absorbs the second.  New wrinkle.  The GFS slides are on the left.  Hours 78 and 96 are compared.

I'm guessing we want bottom left as it comes over the ridge very steep? 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Kasper said:

I'm guessing we want bottom left as it comes over the ridge very steep? 

CMC is on the right...I am not sure it is right BTW.  Bottom is hour 96...too is 78.  See how energy piece number two digs into the back of the trough?  

Regarding Jan 1 event...the 12z UKMET is in...looks good and then goes suppressed.  The battle now is what happens to the energy once past the Rockies...now that we know it is real and actually gets there.  The 12z GFS yesterday was correct(about the energy in the NW) and it got tossed.  Ha!  Now, what happens once it is in the Rockies is anybody's guess.  I am still rolling w a frontal passage that has snow.  How intense and where is the wave that goes up it?  Not sure.  Could be OTS or on the coast....

[Carvers Gap]

Bob Chill in the MA had a great post about the d10-15 and the potential for the EPO to reload.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Last post..and then you all take the helm..HickoryWx in the SE forum talks about what needs to be in place for SE snow and is reasonably encouraged.   

 

[AMZ8990]

Not a bad look at this time frame.

[Mrwolf1972]

the Euro at 96 looks differnt then past few runs the cold seems to hold back a little and allows the low to not be pushed to the gulf if im looking right.

[jaxjagman]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z DEC27
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
WED 00Z 27-DEC                  31.7    22.7    01006   0.00    0.00      45    
WED 06Z 27-DEC  31.8    26.6    26.4    20.3    36007   0.00    0.00      86    
WED 12Z 27-DEC  26.4    22.3    22.2    13.8    35007   0.00    0.00      97    
WED 18Z 27-DEC  27.7    21.1    27.9     8.4    00008   0.00    0.00      21    
THU 00Z 28-DEC  29.0    22.8    22.7    -1.6    01007   0.00    0.00      66    
THU 06Z 28-DEC  22.7    18.5    18.5    -6.3    04006   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 12Z 28-DEC  18.6    18.1    18.4    -2.4    03005   0.00    0.00       6    
THU 18Z 28-DEC  34.9    18.4    35.3    -0.1    03001   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 00Z 29-DEC  37.9    27.7    27.9    13.2    03004   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 29-DEC  28.4    25.1    25.6    13.0    05002   0.00    0.00      30    
FRI 12Z 29-DEC  26.6    23.9    26.1    13.3    00002   0.00    0.00      22    
FRI 18Z 29-DEC  42.0    25.1    42.0    12.8    05001   0.00    0.00      72    
SAT 00Z 30-DEC  43.8    31.7    32.0    24.1    04003   0.00    0.00      86    
SAT 06Z 30-DEC  33.7    28.0    29.2    23.8    27001   0.00    0.00      58    
SAT 12Z 30-DEC  30.0    26.8    28.2     8.0    28005   0.00    0.00      86    
SAT 18Z 30-DEC  37.6    27.9    36.6    18.7    32007   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 00Z 31-DEC  36.6    28.2    28.0    14.8    35007   0.00    0.00      77    
SUN 06Z 31-DEC  28.0    19.4    19.3     2.3    01007   0.00    0.00      38    
SUN 12Z 31-DEC  19.3    15.6    15.5    -3.1    02007   0.00    0.00       5    
SUN 18Z 31-DEC  25.2    15.1    25.5    -8.4    01006   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 01-JAN  27.6    22.3    22.1    -6.8    35007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 01-JAN  22.1    16.9    16.8    -3.8    34007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 01-JAN  16.8    12.2    12.1    -0.3    34008   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 01-JAN  18.4    11.1    18.6    -6.0    33008   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 00Z 02-JAN  19.6    13.8    13.6   -15.2    34008   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 06Z 02-JAN  13.6     7.1     7.0   -12.2    01007   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 12Z 02-JAN   7.0     4.1     4.0   -10.9    02005   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 02-JAN  17.7     3.9    18.1   -10.3    04002   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 00Z 03-JAN  22.2    17.1    17.4    -6.6    03004   0.00    0.00      60    
 

[tnweathernut]

The 12z Euro generates a light snowfall with the weekend wave, especially for our brothers and sisters along the southern TN border area and northern MS,AL,GA.  There are some 1-1.5 inch amounts showing there.

The 12z Euro holds a piece of energy back like the Canadian model and tries to develop a low that gives the gulf coast region a light snow that becomes a moderate snow for far south GA and coastal SC/NC around day 7.

[tnweathernut]

Just looking at the evolution at 500 on the 12z euro, this coastal storm would likely hit the northeast with a good snow, and upslope areas of TN/NC would likely get hit pretty hard.  Just speaking verbatim, certainly not saying it's going to happen.

[Kasper]

I just want something on the ground other than dirt and grass, after all I'm off next week

[tnweathernut]

2 hours ago, Kasper said:

Model watching is exhausting, I'll just stand outside and hopefully wait for flakes to fall! 

See you at 18z...  lol

[jaxjagman]

At this rate Florida will see more snow than us..lol

[Carvers Gap]

We have a SE coastal snow at 6 days out on a model that trends northwest w a Miller type track.  I will take it at this range.  We also have snow from a model that is still correcting in our favor for the earlier system...It is within 4.5 days.  Good trends.  Not there yet....but the GFS within day 4 has done ok so far over the last 24 hours, especially where it was correct in the PAC NW as an outlier...it appears.

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

At this rate Florida will see more snow than us..lol

LOL...No doubt...but that is when I take climatology as the draw four.   We are approaching the time of year where we have about an eight week window where latitude is not a problem.  Latitude is a problem for them always.  Would be nice though to see a Jags home game w snow in the air!

[Mrwolf1972]

Euro gives dusting to south tennessee 

[AMZ8990]

I was thinking the same thing, Carver.  Much more consistent on the GFS, nice to see the EURO showing something as well.  As Powell stated earlier, it's good when the bullseye is To your south at this time frame.  

[tnweathernut]

Not that this matters for anything, but the 0 degree 850 line makes it to south FL at day 9 on the 12z Euro..

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Euro gives dusting to south tennessee 

Gotta start somewhere, hoPefully that's the start of a trend with the EURO.

[Carvers Gap]

50 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Not a bad look at this time frame.

...Totally agree.  If we can get a storm to ride that boundary, we are in business.  I will take that look all day, every day.

[Carvers Gap]

Not saying this is anywhere close to being a certainty.  FRD posted this Tweet from the MA forum.   It is from HM during late November.  Just food for thought....