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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro has been delayed due to a power outage per MillvilleWx in the MA forum....the Euro just does not want to cave.:lol:  I take full responsibility...I stayed up for the first time this season and put the jinx on it!

Must be the site where its coming from,i have no issues with mine

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

John, my understanding from reading the SE forum, is that the UKIE has precipitation over the SE where before it did not?  Can you see a trend there?

There was a little change to the northern and western  edge  vs the 12z. Not 100 percent sure if it was any movement to the precip shield or if it was just reflective of 12 more hours of precip for certain areas. It didn't effect us much so I didn't pay it as much attention. 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The 0z Euro basically moved at 500 to the American model suite.  It did not make the complete flip as the Euro rarely adjusts quickly, but it digs much further west relative to its previous run.  This also corrects its differences(I can only see to d7) that it appeared to have w it trying to break the pattern too early.   Pretty amazing to see it switch so late.  It would “appear” the GFS has scored a coup in the Northwest after a really bad week.  Not a complete win as the Euro is only about 60-70% there...but that is a significant move.  The surface precip is further north and it now has an incredibly cold pattern after the storm.  

Now, after watching the latest GFS/Euro it is my opinion that this will be a wave along a massive cold front.  Just depends on when it gets its act together.  

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

6Z GFS has the storm back again, just a lighter event 1-3" forum wide.

Mentioned this a second ago...if that is real and (I need to see the Euro make one more move to the GFS like it just didearly in its run)...I suspect this is like a massive cold front that will develop precip and a wave along it.  IF this is true, ratios will be high and the air mass behind it will be extremely cold.

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Kasper

Kasper

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Mentioned this a second ago...if that is real and (I need to see the Euro make one more move to the GFS like it just didearly in its run)...I suspect this is like a massive cold front that will develop precip and a wave along it.  IF this is true, ratios will be high and the air mass behind it will be extremely cold.

Let's hope we get some clarity today, Carver this would be a near perfect setup for us if the euro gets on board! I think the storm that just passed to our south today might be a good indicator that the models are over suppressing these systems as they cut through! Let's hope that's the case! 

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

Posted
Posted

Latest WPC discussion seems less dead set on Euro and more a blend between.  Interesting Read. 

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
BASICALLY TWO MAIN FORECAST CAMPS. GUIDANCE VARIANCE SEEMS TO
MAINLY STEM FROM THE UNCERTAIN HANDLING OF MID-LOWER LATITUDE
SYSTEMS EMINATING FROM THE E-CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE WRN US. RECENT
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS PROGRESS TROUGH
ENERGIES INTO THE WEST COAST AND BUILD LEAD RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SHUNTING COLD NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING
INCREASINGLY WITH TIME FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US
NEXT WEEK. RECENT GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GEFS RUNS DELAY
PACIFIC MID-LOWER LATTITUDE ENERGY INSURGENCE INTO THE WRN US AND
HOLD MORE RIDGING OFFSHORE. THIS ALLOWS ROOM FOR MUCH MORE COLD
NRN STREAM DIGGING/AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE W-CENTRAL THEN
EAST-CENTRAL US DAYS 4-7 THAN ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

WHILE EITHER FORECAST CAMP IS PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DISTURBING THAT
BOTH CAMPS OF GUIDANCE ARE WELL CLUSTERED WITHIN
THEMSELVES...SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY IF YOU DON'T
CONSIDER THE OTHER SEEMINGLY OPPOSITE AND MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE CAMP.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP WOULD BETTER ILLISTRATE FORECAST
SPREAD/UNCERAINTY IT DESIGNED LESS DIRECTLY TIED TO THE
INITIALIZATION AND PHYSICS OF THE PARENT MODEL. AM LEARY TO
SIGNIFICANTLTY REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF NRN STREAM COOLING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND ERN US GIVEN RECENT FLOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN INFLUX OF
PACIFIC ENERGIES INTO THE WEST WHERE THE ECMWF SEEMS
OVERDONE...BUT SOME GRADUAL MODIFICATION SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER LESS NRN STREAM AMPLITUDE THAN
RECENT GFS RUNS. OVERALL...THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS
PRIMARILY DERIVED WITH THIS FORECAST THOUGHT PROCESS...IN NO MANS
LAND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS BACKED OFF SOME
AMPLITUDE AS WELL...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF IS DELAYED.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Latest WPC discussion seems less dead set on Euro and more a blend between.  Interesting Read. 


MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
BASICALLY TWO MAIN FORECAST CAMPS. GUIDANCE VARIANCE SEEMS TO
MAINLY STEM FROM THE UNCERTAIN HANDLING OF MID-LOWER LATITUDE
SYSTEMS EMINATING FROM THE E-CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE WRN US. RECENT
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS PROGRESS TROUGH
ENERGIES INTO THE WEST COAST AND BUILD LEAD RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SHUNTING COLD NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING
INCREASINGLY WITH TIME FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US
NEXT WEEK. RECENT GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GEFS RUNS DELAY
PACIFIC MID-LOWER LATTITUDE ENERGY INSURGENCE INTO THE WRN US AND
HOLD MORE RIDGING OFFSHORE. THIS ALLOWS ROOM FOR MUCH MORE COLD
NRN STREAM DIGGING/AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE W-CENTRAL THEN
EAST-CENTRAL US DAYS 4-7 THAN ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

WHILE EITHER FORECAST CAMP IS PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DISTURBING THAT
BOTH CAMPS OF GUIDANCE ARE WELL CLUSTERED WITHIN
THEMSELVES...SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY IF YOU DON'T
CONSIDER THE OTHER SEEMINGLY OPPOSITE AND MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE CAMP.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP WOULD BETTER ILLISTRATE FORECAST
SPREAD/UNCERAINTY IT DESIGNED LESS DIRECTLY TIED TO THE
INITIALIZATION AND PHYSICS OF THE PARENT MODEL. AM LEARY TO
SIGNIFICANTLTY REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF NRN STREAM COOLING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND ERN US GIVEN RECENT FLOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN INFLUX OF
PACIFIC ENERGIES INTO THE WEST WHERE THE ECMWF SEEMS
OVERDONE...BUT SOME GRADUAL MODIFICATION SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER LESS NRN STREAM AMPLITUDE THAN
RECENT GFS RUNS. OVERALL...THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS
PRIMARILY DERIVED WITH THIS FORECAST THOUGHT PROCESS...IN NO MANS
LAND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS BACKED OFF SOME
AMPLITUDE AS WELL...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF IS DELAYED.

That forecast I think was made before the Euro due to the delay...wonder if they will update now?

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That forecast I think was made before the Euro due to the delay...wonder if they will update now?

Yeah I noticed that they still haven't put out another update though since that one, but very interesting how they describe the situation.  The 12Z NAM looks interesting, I know its the NAM late in its run but at hour 75 on the 12Z looks like it is moving everything faster to me.  

Scratch that moving faster...  Just finished the 12Z and it is not moving faster than the GFS.

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PowellVolz

PowellVolz

Posted
Posted
IMO, the only reason that more precip is not on the Euro is that it is too slow w the energy in the NW(remember it moved towards the GFS and is not there yet) so the timing is off w the southern stream.  Now, that could actually happen as we saw that w the 0z GFS but the 6z GFS has it back.

Doesn’t the Euro have a bias of cutting the NW precip shield of?


.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Doesn’t the Euro have a bias of cutting the NW precip shield of?


.

The Euro always seems a bit too dry w qpf to me....but again, I cannot say that is gospel.  The Euro missed the energy at 0z because it is slower.  I think 12z tells the tale.  If the Euro continues to speed up and dig...we know it has moved to the GFS totally.  I just look at the Deep South system today and how far north that came in modeling...I suspect the models are overdoing the cold.  If so, that boundary comes north...if not, we may see some crazy HPs.  Either way, some really interesting wx on the way for folks who like cold and/or snow.  There is definitely a path to a strikeout for snow.  There is a path opposite of that.  I just think something comes this way.   I like the idea of a frontal passage w precip around New Years but no guarantees w the usual disclaimers.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kasper said:

Let's hope we get some clarity today, Carver this would be a near perfect setup for us if the euro gets on board! I think the storm that just passed to our south today might be a good indicator that the models are over suppressing these systems as they cut through! Let's hope that's the case! 

If I had not seen the model trends and flip-flopping I would say that set-up looks really good w the northern areas of the forum area a wild card....southern areas look good.  But right now, we will see snow or maybe some nearly record pressures?  Either would be interesting.  Would hate to get blanked w the current pattern of extended cold..but still really early in the winter. Some winters wait until midJan to get going.  We started early this year.

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