Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This might be more of a banter post...but since we are in a lull between model runs. Erie, PA. 60" of snow in a two day period. They just broke the record. Incredible pics. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-record-breaking-snowfall-blankets-erie-pennsylvania-in-53-inches-of-snow/70003657 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This might be more of a banter post...but since we are in a lull between model runs. Erie, PA. 60" of snow in a two day period. They just broke the record. Incredible pics. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-record-breaking-snowfall-blankets-erie-pennsylvania-in-53-inches-of-snow/70003657A sign of the brutal cold for this early in the year coming across the unfrozen lakes. That's one thing I miss as a kid in Michigan is lake effect snow squalls. Remember them well. It's amazing how a narrow stretch can get incredible amounts of snow and a few miles away sunny and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: A sign of the brutal cold for this early in the year coming across the unfrozen lakes. That's one thing I miss as a kid in Michigan is lake effect snow squalls. Remember them well. It's amazing how a narrow stretch can get incredible amounts of snow and a few miles away sunny and no snow. Awesome. Maybe some day I will take a road trip there. I have family in Maine. Seriously have considered heading there if a big storm hits. I have seen some 3-4' drifts on Roan...but a risky drive to see them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Awesome. Maybe some day I will take a road trip there. I have family in Maine. Seriously have considered heading there if a big storm hits. I have seen some 3-4' drifts on Roan...but a risky drive to see them! Alex, I'll take the Blizzard of "93" for $1000! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Kasper said: Alex, I'll take the Blizzard of "93" for $1000! No doubt. Lived on the UT campus during the blizzard. Best storm of my life. It had it all. Speaking of cold...that storm road an Arctic boundary. Models nailed that storm from way out. Probably the first storm I model watched on the models (via TV wx reporters). Hoping maybe one day again I will see such a storm ride an Arctic boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Even growing up as a youngster in Michigan the Blizzard of 93 here in Tennessee is my most memorable storm. Saw thundersnow for the first time then and the winds were just incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: No doubt. Lived on the UT campus during the blizzard. Best storm of my life. It had it all. Speaking of cold...that storm road an Arctic boundary. Models nailed that storm from way out. Probably the first storm I model watched on the models (via TV wx reporters). Hoping maybe one day again I will see such a storm ride an Arctic boundary. Yes, that storm was epic! Followed by brutal cold, as cold as the current forecast is for the first part of January. If we get snow cover the cold will definitely be brutal! Small world Carver, I was living in Farragut at the time! A friend and myself were actually going to climb Leconte the day before! Let's say I'm glad I called that off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Yes, that storm was epic! Followed by brutal cold, as cold as the current forecast is for the first part of January. If we get snow cover the cold will definitely be brutal! Small world Carver, I was living in Farragut at the time! A friend and myself were actually going to climb Leconte the day before! Let's say I'm glad I called that off! What no one really talks about because the blizzard was the tornado outbreak in February that year. I lived in Powell and we had a lot of damage within a couple hundred yards from my house. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 If the GFS hits 5 or 6 runs in a row for the Potential New Year storm, at what point should we start to take it serious? If the other models follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Watching the 0z NAM. Out to 45 it is very similar to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kasper said: If the GFS hits 5 or 6 runs in a row for the Potential New Year storm, at what point should we start to take it serious? If the other models follow? When actual snow begins to fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, *Flash* said: 0z NAM @ 84 is similar to 12z GFS @ 90/96. Maybe a NAM/GFS vs. CMC/ECMWF war setting up. 12z JMA @144 is in the NAM/GFS camp as well. Same digging in the NW earlier in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z JMA@144 is in the NAM/GFS camp as well. Same digging in the NW. Love the look of that low placement, just west of Savannah with that huge high dropping out of the plains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I know it is the NAM at 84 so take it with a huge grain...but precip breaking out in the Plains just like the 12z GFS. So...who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 By an amateur glance it would seem the NAVGEM is much closer to the CMC and Euro solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Here comes the 00z GFS, don't wiff now you here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The 0z RGEM at 48 appears south of 18z...by a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 0z GFS...so far, so good at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 GFS has joined suppression. Probably not going to have any luck this go around. Maybe we can shake the pattern up soon and re-start. That's what it took in 2014. Had some deep cold but not a lot of moisture in early January but it began to pay off later and into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The Canadian is bone dry and has -10s into Tennessee with no snow. -20s over the Ohio River. I got down to -14 in December 1989 with about 1.5 inches of snow on the ground. That's as cold as I've ever gotten with that little snow. I think maybe 0 with no snow at all is as low as I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The GFS leaves Tennessee in a snow hole. Snow on the ground to the North, South, East and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, *Flash* said: Things looked decent at 114 but really fell apart afterwards compared to prior 4 runs. Need that Central Plains high to move more W/E than N/S. Kinda expected GFS to cave but it’s still a big bummer. Really, it held serve at 500. It is significantly different that the Euro. There is "room" on the GFS for a storm. Minor speed differences, timing, etc,...but the GFS has an opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Should be a red flag when the GEFS showed that much cold.I was concerned with what i saw the last run,the GEFS just never gets that cold in the Mid South in the long range.I think the question now other than snow is how cold will it really get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Really, it held serve at 500. It is significantly different that the Euro. There is "room" on the GFS for a storm. Minor speed differences, timing, etc,...but the GFS has an opening. I think we'll see it move more and more towards the Euro/CMC/UKIE. One thing to note, it's to not take any storm as remotely serious beyond 5 days. It's crazy that the models get major upgrades and seemingly get worse at forecasting. The GFS used to have a reliable bias within 7 days, and that was a NW trend, it rarely had the issues it seems to have these days. This year it's just lost most of the time. Also the Euro has served up day 7 megastorms a couple of times already only to fall completely flat. I guess there's truly never going to be a way to be particularly accurate with micro details beyond 3-4 days. Not a huge fan of brown ground and bone rattling cold but we can only live with the weather we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think we'll see it move more and more towards the Euro/CMC/UKIE. One thing to note, it's to not take any storm as remotely serious beyond 5 days. It's crazy that the models get major upgrades and seemingly get worse at forecasting. The GFS used to have a reliable bias within 7 days, and that was a NW trend, it rarely had the issues it seems to have these days. This year it's just lost most of the time. Also the Euro has served up day 7 megastorms a couple of times already only to fall completely flat. I guess there's truly never going to be a way to be particularly accurate with micro details beyond 3-4 days. Not a huge fan of brown ground and bone rattling cold but we can only live with the weather we get. Not really a move to the Euro IMO on this run. They could not be more different at 500. The CMC even recurves a massive blizzard into the NE. The Euro is on an island IMO w the proximity of the two areas of slp in the Pacific and with not digging into the NW. The CMC caved to the GFS in the NW this run. And I really don't like defending the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think we'll see it move more and more towards the Euro/CMC/UKIE. One thing to note, it's to not take any storm as remotely serious beyond 5 days. It's crazy that the models get major upgrades and seemingly get worse at forecasting. The GFS used to have a reliable bias within 7 days, and that was a NW trend, it rarely had the issues it seems to have these days. This year it's just lost most of the time. Also the Euro has served up day 7 megastorms a couple of times already only to fall completely flat. I guess there's truly never going to be a way to be particularly accurate with micro details beyond 3-4 days. Not a huge fan of brown ground and bone rattling cold but we can only live with the weather we get. Not very often you see a 1059 bomb going into Kansas.Would that be a record in that area?.If thats right,i still dont buy those temps,it should be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The GFS had 18 consecutive runs that were more snow/precip filled than this run for the forum. 18 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Not very often you see a 1059 bomb going into Kansas.Would that be a record in that area?.If thats right,i still dont buy those temps,it should be colder I think the record for the lower 48 is like 1060-1062. It is very close to being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Not very often you see a 1059 bomb going into Kansas.Would that be a record in that area?.If thats right,i still dont buy those temps,it should be colder In that are of Kansas the record pressures are 1048-1052. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Pretty impressive what the CMC is doing w the recurve at 198. Going to bury the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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