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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

18z makes it four straight runs. Really hope this is a case where Euro plays catch up. I believe this happened a few times during winter 2014-15.

Regarding the current hour 90.  Use TT to toggle that back in time on the various models.  You know...I went and looked at the CMC in the NW.  It has trended flatter w that ridge.  The 18z made a slight adjustment to dig less...and the low was further south by a hair.  I thought the GFS was on its own.  Maybe not.   It may just have been an extreme of the trend.  The Euro has been jumpy in that time.  Take the last four runs....The GFS has had that little vortex east of HI all four times.  The Euro has missed 2/4.  The CMC has missed 2/4 times.  I hate to say it...the GFS has been the most consistent w the NW during the time frame.

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

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8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Regarding the current hour 90.  Use TT to toggle that back in time on the various models.  You know...I went and looked at the CMC in the NW.  It has trended flatter w that ridge.  The 18z made a slight adjustment to dig less...and the low was further south by a hair.  I thought the GFS was on its own.  Maybe not.   It may just have been an extreme of the trend.  The Euro has been jumpy in that time.  Take the last four runs....The GFS has had that little vortex east of HI all four times.  The Euro has missed 2/4.  The CMC has missed 2/4 times.  I hate to say it...the GFS has been the most consistent w the NW during the time frame.

GFS and consistent are not two words we've been used to hearing lately!!

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lugnuts

lugnuts

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Will (little rock) said:

Sorry for being off topic but does anyone ever get random pop up ads when going to this site? It happens on all my devices 

 

Yes and so have many others..Main page talks about it..This is the only site i click on that does it..Mine redirects me and says windows defender has detected a virus and to call a number for microsoft support ..Have to shut down computer..If you can close it out before it loads you're okay..Just does it one time while browsing the site..Anyways wow is working on the problem..

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Kentucky

Kentucky

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, lugnuts said:

Yes and so have many others..Main page talks about it..This is the only site i click on that does it..Mine redirects me and says windows defender has detected a virus and to call a number for microsoft support ..Have to shut down computer..If you can close it out before it loads you're okay..Just does it one time while browsing the site..Anyways wow is working on the problem..

malicious ads

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


Why are mets liking the Euro then?


.

My opinion which is not the gospel....I think, in general, like Jeff says...when it makes a mistake at least it is to its tendencies.  The GFS has been pretty random during the past week.  However...It is my opinion that once the cold arrives, it will stabilize and may be doing so now.  The Euro is on its own after 150ish.  The EPS actually tries late to re-establish the EPO ridge after a couple of wonky runs.  Most forecasting(meaning days 1-10) takes places for hours less than 120.  The Euro is tough to beat usually during that time frame.  It has been pretty mortal though during the past week.  It was just as guilty of showing big means and snow totals only to have them vanish.  I would be wary of any model trying to break down the pattern before the first week of January is over...then it is up for grabs.  But back to your question, if I had to earn a living...I would use the model that scores the best.  If I had to work the energy market in the LR, I would probably use the Jamstec and Euro.  I can barely follow the CFS2 flip flopping.  But the 18z GFS did dig less...but it is not exactly a cave since the other models were all over the place in the NW.  I give the GFS credit, it has been solid in that region for four straight runs as Fiash pointed out.

 

edit:  The 18z NAM having the same digging definitely has me intrigued.  I suspect the solution will be a blend vs a cave.  

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

That's actually some impressive cold the GEFS is showing,been awhile since i've seen it showing us being that cold within a 7 day time frame.Sometimes when we get that cold in the Valley we know how this works out though,dry air comes to my mind.But i'm still impressed when the GEFS shows us +4F almost 7 days out,warm biased model here we're talking about

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Us and the pros are in the same boat. From MRX this afternoon.  

Model solutions greatly diverge past Saturday and uncertainty is
very high late this weekend into early next week. The GFS continues
to dry and develop an area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast with
moisture over our region Sunday and Sunday night which is also
supported by GEFS members. The ECMWF and CMC continue to be dry with
the Gulf low suppressed far to the south with slight differences
with respect to timing. Therefore, went no higher than chance PoPs
for Sunday through Monday because of the very high uncertainty.
Exactly how the Sunday through Monday forecast plays out will depend
on a small, relatively weak shortwave and how it evolves from a
closed low over the eastern Pacific. Models routinely have a
difficult time with this type of setup and this seems to be no
exception. Regardless, we`ll have to continue to watch for at least
the potential for winter weather Sunday through Monday.
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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

That's actually some impressive cold the GEFS is showing,been awhile since i've seen it showing us being that cold within a 7 day time frame.Sometimes when we get that cold in the Valley we know how this works out though,dry air comes to my mind.But i'm still impressed when the GEFS shows us +4F almost 7 days out,warm biased model here we're talking about

Its tough to get so cold without snowcover. And it's tough to not get snow with so much cold. Usually super arctic airmasses will squeeze out every drop of moisture and drop and inch or two of snow. 

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted
Just now, John1122 said:

Its tough to get so cold without snowcover. And it's tough to not get snow with so much cold. Usually super arctic airmasses will squeeze out every drop of moisture and drop and inch or two of snow. 

No doubt with the cold being advertised it will wring out any moisture left.The GEFS shows also some snow before the colder arrives,least right now.Just wondering how cold it will actually get.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

No doubt with the cold being advertised it will wring out any moisture left.The GEFS shows also some snow before the colder arrives,least right now.Just wondering how cold it will actually get.

I think I saw -2F for my area on the 18z GEFS at one point.  If, if we get snow on the ground...we could have some records challenged.  Crazy cold for ensemble run as you pointed out.  

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think I saw -2F for my area on the 18z GEFS at one point.  If, if we get snow on the ground...we could have some records challenged.  Crazy cold for ensemble run as you pointed out.  

Coldest air in ages was 1985,seen a few analogs thrown out this winter.Pic means nothing,just show

Jan85Coldest.png

 

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/January1985cold

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