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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

The snow depth mean is pretty decent too with 1+ inches over the entire forum basically. This being snow depth, that's always less than the snowfall maps and it's almost always less than the OP when the OP is showing a storm. But for a mean, 1-4 inches is a good signal that the members had some good snow events. Hopefully this can be reeled in but I fully expect continued model madness.

 

snod.conus.png

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Kasper

Kasper

Posted
Posted

Ok guys, sorry I know this is completely off topic, obviously I'm new here, I've been following and reading your threads for sometime! I will say you guys are very informative! I thought I would join up since I've been a weather enthusiast since I was 8...... let's say that's been a while. I've basically lived in a East Tennessee my entire life, so I've seen the highs and lows in weather and nothing surprises me around here! Keep up the good work! If this needs to be moved, please do! Thanks again guys! 

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

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I infer a couple opportunities* next week starting NYE or NYD and maybe again later in the week. Ensembles keep things south, not cutters, so I'm chucking the GFS. Weeklies (both) show 500 mb flow buried. Sure there is a risk too far south. Precip is off the coast; rather see it onshore Deep South. Normal here is fine for snow, but those charts are dry. Fortunately precip is less reliable. Temps are very cold.

* Opportunity for snow in the South is defined as something above dismal climo. Seriously, it is the pattern I like. Bury somewhat zonal flow please.

Other note: European model from the ECMWF is superior for several reasons. ECMWF has the best verification numbers by statistically significant and wide margins, all regions all levels all layers of the atmo. Euro does not make wild pattern swings every six hours. Euro biases are known; therefore, one can always use it as a valuable tool. Euro accuracy is almost a day better than that of the GFS. In other words Euro Day n+1 beats GFS Day n. Euro is not perfect though, late to December 8. However it appears to have handled the current week.

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John1122

John1122

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47 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Ok guys, sorry I know this is completely off topic, obviously I'm new here, I've been following and reading your threads for sometime! I will say you guys are very informative! I thought I would join up since I've been a weather enthusiast since I was 8...... let's say that's been a while. I've basically lived in a East Tennessee my entire life, so I've seen the highs and lows in weather and nothing surprises me around here! Keep up the good work! If this needs to be moved, please do! Thanks again guys! 

Glad to see you contributing. Love seeing new people posting. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kasper said:

Ok guys, sorry I know this is completely off topic, obviously I'm new here, I've been following and reading your threads for sometime! I will say you guys are very informative! I thought I would join up since I've been a weather enthusiast since I was 8...... let's say that's been a while. I've basically lived in a East Tennessee my entire life, so I've seen the highs and lows in weather and nothing surprises me around here! Keep up the good work! If this needs to be moved, please do! Thanks again guys! 

Welcome Kasper.  Great to add a new member! Post often, hopefully we will have a good reason to collectively post more often in the coming week or two. ....

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kasper said:

Ok guys, sorry I know this is completely off topic, obviously I'm new here, I've been following and reading your threads for sometime! I will say you guys are very informative! I thought I would join up since I've been a weather enthusiast since I was 8...... let's say that's been a while. I've basically lived in a East Tennessee my entire life, so I've seen the highs and lows in weather and nothing surprises me around here! Keep up the good work! If this needs to be moved, please do! Thanks again guys! 

Welcome aboard!  Glad to have you here.  

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Kasper

Kasper

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

NAM @78 .  Saw in the MA forum a met and some posters discussing the differences of the 18z and 0z runs.  Definitely a change.  Real?  No idea.  But there is a short wave in the Plains on the 0z run.

I seen this as well, these models are all over the place, from what I read that's a north piece right? Would that have a chance to phase with the southern stream? Or am I totally off base with that analogy?

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Incredibly cold 0z model suite overnight....multiple shots.  I would suggest that the frontal passages will not all be without precip.  This could be a deal where a tenth or two or precip could yield abnormally high ratios.  I think I saw -11 over the western half of the forum area on the 6z GFS at some point.  Below zero temps reached into northern AL/MS.  The 0z GFS had 1060+ highs in the Plains.  Hey, if it is not going to snow...might as well break the hp record for the lower 48.  Like John mentioned...the models began a trend overnight of more precip.  There are now a few clippers embedded.  IMO...just waiting now for northern stream energy to hit the southern stream...timing.  Cold and then cold/stormy.  The major models support two serious shots of cold if not more.  The EPS has a warm-up around d13, but that might well be its bias of hanging a trough out West. But there is nowhere to go but up w these temps. 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

Weeklies/0z EPS update...big warmup coming after big cold.  The EPS flips the 500 pattern about d11.  It does take the temps 3-4 days to respond. The EPS is warm at d13 and moving forward in time.  The Weeklies have more of a transition during week 3 and then warm.  Looks like both versions of the Euro want a trough in the West.  That said, if you look at the 500 map on the Euro operational, it looks like it is going to reload the current pattern.  The 6z GEFS looks very similar to the EPS.  The cold before that time will be impressive with models varying in just how cold it will be.  IMO, it will be interesting to see if this flip even happens or is hurrying the flip. The Weeklies M-Climate takes into consideration past runs and climo...it delays the warm-up until the fourth week. Now, keep in mind that the Weeklies went wall-to-wall warm a few runs ago...that will not verify.  But I think there is a decent chance that the cold flips West and stays there as the new pattern for several weeks.  I also think there is a smaller chance that the models are making a mistake, and that it is a thaw w a reload behind it.  If it does flip to the Western trough as the pattern, I would say that 83-84/89-90 would be good analogs.   We are due a pattern flip mainly because most patterns last 4-8 weeks, and we are due a flip.  I remain unconvinced that the models are correct w details at 72 hours, but they do seem to have the 500 pattern under control now.(edit)

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

Posted
Posted

MRX Overnight Disco on the New Years Eve Storm:

Quote 

Looking mostly dry for Friday through Saturday, then
guidance still pointing at some threat for wintery precip centered
on Sunday. For Sunday going with POPs in the 40s, but that could
increase if MREF guidance holds true-
-it shows an axis of precip oriented along the Appalachians rather
than the guidance for several days of keeping the main moisture and
precip in a W-E band well to our south. No end in sight for this
cold spell--looks like we will ring in the New Year with bone-
chilling cold.

OHX Overnight Disco on the New Years Eve Storm:

Quote 

Global models continue to show wildly different
solutions regarding the very amplified and deep trough setting up
over the eastern US, with the trough forcing an Arctic cold front
through the region either on Saturday per the Euro or 24 hours
later on Sunday according to the GFS. In addition, the GFS
continues to show a significant winter storm affecting Middle
Tennessee on New Years Eve, while the Canadian shows some wintry
stuff on New Years Day, and the Euro shows no precip at all. The
GFS is also advertising some very cold temperatures next week,
which are some 10 to 20 degrees colder than the ECMWF. With such
massive model disagreement, will have just a slight to low chance
of snow in from Saturday night through Sunday night, and keep
temperatures near the superblend of guidance. Even with the
warmer superblend temperatures, much of Middle Tennessee will
likely stay below freezing for several days as we head into 2018

 

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