Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The one thing the GFS does that I actually agree w is that one storm after another parades across the country. I do think it is too far north w its Arctic boundary...I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 And at 198...more energy into the NW. Maybe a third storm? Edit...also came in at a lower latitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 And another piece of energy comes ashore at 222....have to like the amount of energy in this pattern...but have to admit I take the GFS w a monster grain of salt right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The 0z UKMET looks decent...looks like it has slider potential....last slide at 144 looks really good regarding EC storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Yes, the UKIE has a classic winter storm look. Big high building to the NW and perfect storm placement in the Gulf to the east coast. Not super strong either so no big pumping warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Icy doom from the Canadian. Plus some snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Mean snow accumulation on the GEFS is looking a lot better thru 264 on this run compared to the 18z. A few big dogs and almost every member has something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just when you think we might have some model agreement, unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Now the Euro is suppressed. You can't make this up. Complete model chaos and we are basically inside 5-6 days on this potentially effecting the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Sizable drop on the EPS snow mean for 10 days. Max in the forum is around an inch now. Had been 2+ over a much larger area leading into the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The 6z GFS was a great run if it is to be believed...likely just another of its wide variations. Right now, no model is consistent. Can anyone get precip maps for the UKMET past 72? The Euro went from juicy to dry. I suspect the answer is somewhere in betweeen. The RGEM is interesting. The short range models have this and have had it for a few days. The NAM at 6z began to creep north. Trends matter right now. Bad ones for sure on the Euro...but they are not consistent w its previous runs. Here is the 6z GEFS snow map. No idea if it is right...but is has pretty consistently been snowy. Always remember, at this latitudes many factors are working against us...but we are approaching the time of year where climo favors snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 6z GFS was a great run if it is to be believed...likely just another of its wide variations. Right now, no model is consistent. Can anyone get precip maps for the UKMET past 72? The Euro went from juicy to dry. I suspect the answer is somewhere in betweeen. The RGEM is interesting. The short range models have this and have had it for a few days. The NAM at 6z began to creep north. Trends matter right now. Bad ones for sure on the Euro...but they are not consistent w its previous runs. Here is the 6z GEFS snow map. No idea if it is right...but is has pretty consistently been snowy. Always remember, at this latitudes many factors are working against us...but we are approaching the time of year where climo favors snow. How long do we want to wait before we start a thread for the 29-31 potential? We need to get some good mojo goIng so we can reel this storm in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: How long do we want to wait before we start a thread for the 29-31 potential? We need to get some good mojo goIng so we can reel this storm in!! I am not convinced that suppression won’t happen....that is why those cutter solutions were so strange several days ago. I would wait a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I am not convinced that suppression won’t happen....that is why those cutter solutions were so strange several days ago. I would wait a few more runs. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=vn&CONT=namk&LAND=__&ZEIT=201712240600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 21 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=vn&CONT=namk&LAND=__&ZEIT=201712240600 So I see 3 separate pieces of energy on the 28th, then by the 30th it looks like one big storm. Does It think those pieces of energy are gonna phase together or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Well if it is to be believed the 12z GFS has two storms by next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Well...two straight, consistent runs(maybe three) by the GFS. The 12z CMC shows two threats...will the Euro join? Will the UKMET hold serve w a storm as it did last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12z GFS has temps below zero @216 for the northern areas of the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Out past 240 now on the GFS...so really could be anything. But cold and storms seems to be the theme with details still to be ironed out. As Alan Huffman said on Twitter a few runs ago...I could really try to break down the GFS run, but probably is best to say it is cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 At 264, there is a third storm w yet another coming into Seattle, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Well if it is to be believed the 12z GFS has two storms by next Sunday. Need those temps to drop down for us a little bit to make those interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Need those temps to drop down for us a little bit to make those interesting! I am not worried about temps at this point...suppression is the big concern. The 12z UKMET is in and looks very suprresed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I am not worried about temps at this point...suppression is the big concern. The 12z UKMET is in and looks very suprresed. It's a good thing we still have time for more changes then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: It's a good thing we still have time for more changes then! Yep. 12z Euro is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Suppression is on all the models this morning. Canadian lightened up it's totals significantly. It had been the most consistent with heavier moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: Suppression is on all the models this morning. Canadian lightened up it's totals significantly. It had been the most consistent with heavier moisture. Isn't there a bias with the models that usually causes them to do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12z Euro... At 66 trough out West is stronger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12z Euro is still very suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I did not buy the ridge over Christmas...I don't by the overall dry look now on the Euro. But this is shakier ground now. The trough under a -EPO ridge was not realistic under that config. All models showed it...all models were wrong. Now, we are closer. The 12z UKMET is now suppressed. That is a big ally to lose. I certainly am not going to align w the GFS. And a suppressed look is certainly realistic. But.....I do think the GFS is correct about the amount of energy in the pattern even if it is likely wrong about the details. The Euro has less energy overall...and that I do not by. But the Euro is incredibly cold after day 7. Probably missing some northern stream energy in that setup. Nice front prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I find no reason to believe any models regarding path right now. There are just too many major swings from run to run. There is likely going to be a storm of some strength somewhere in the South between the 27th and 31st. That's about all that seems likely at this point. Probably not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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