J.C. Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GFS w yet another variation. Not sure I have ever seen that model struggle this badly....this is 4-5 days out and is just throwing darts. I do buy suppression as a potential problem. The CMC looks reasonable....only because something should be riding the Arctic boundary and because it keeps showing the same thing. Its absolutely terrible right now, I would trust the CMC/RGEM/Ukmet more than anything right now. I said this in the other forum, GDOT is changing companies that provide them with their weather modeling and forecasting to Meteocentre because they have been dead on, especially with last storm. GDOT was not at all happy with their current company on contract, and the company I work for is in the process of procurement to bring Meteocentre on next month. The GFS operational is almost worthless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Behold the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Forget the pretty snow maps...that is a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 As Carver mentioned yesterday, "don't necessarily look at the snowfall maps look at the pattern". We had been pretty dry priOr to this week. Then all of a sudden we get two massive rains in less than a week. I think that's a good sign for the next few weeks. I've got a pond that doesn't hold water well in my front yard. It has been dry since the spring. After yesterday's event I now have my acre pond back, it's probably about 6 ft deep in the middle as well. Hopefully that all translates to a continuation of More precipitation over the next week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Forget the pretty snow maps...that is a good setup. We must of been on the same wavelength the last 10 minute as we were writing our last posts! Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The 12z Euro was a pretty nice setup. It wasn’t like the 0z GFS but I don’t think we will see a run quite like that again. This run was probably as good as we can hope for with regards to storm track and the orientation of the energy swinging thru. The wave dug a little more and was a little more negatively tilted. The thermals gave most of TN an ice storm with 6+ inches of snow along the mountains and KY/VA borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The Euro was not suppressed at all. Snow to ice to rain for most. Border areas stay snow. Ice looks heavy in some areas on top of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The NAVGEM may be on to something, it has shown the past two runs on Tuesday some snow sliding under high pressure. It may be on to a little something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: The NAVGEM may be on to something, it has shown the past two runs on Tuesday some snow sliding under high pressure. It may be on to a little something... Wouldn't surprise me, NAVGEM has handled systems pretty well This month. I've got a chance at flurries tomorrow now, nobody was predicting that over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The system is going through Asia tomorrow,not sure the Euro isnt to fast on the Euro.I'm on my wifes PC from the hospital so i cant post pics,we are at the Wilderness water park.But using the East Asia rule 6-10 days,it's slightly to fast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=wpac&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017122312&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'd love to see the models begin to show some consistency on track. Of course that won't likely happen until 36-48 hours before the storm. Right now it appears at least that the cutter solutions are way less likely. The upper level pattern across eastern Canada doesn't support cutting. The needle will have to be threaded again. I sure wish we could have a forum wide sure thing. It's just nearly impossible due to the way the forum is laid out east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: I'd love to see the models begin to show some consistency on track. Of course that won't likely happen until 36-48 hours before the storm. Right now it appears at least that the cutter solutions are way less likely. The upper level pattern across eastern Canada doesn't support cutting. The needle will have to be threaded again. I sure wish we could have a forum wide sure thing. It's just nearly impossible due to the way the forum is laid out east to west. Agree,we need some sort of wave breaker.The 5h maps look like a jigsaw puzzle with a more or less zonal flow through the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The NAVGEM may be on to something, it has shown the past two runs on Tuesday some snow sliding under high pressure. It may be on to a little something...NAVGEM also lost our main storm to suppression. I think the GFS is a little lost right now. The Euro, CMC, GEFS AND GEPS have been more consistent with a storm at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, 1234snow said: NAVGEM also lost our main storm to suppression. I think the GFS is a little lost right now. The Euro, CMC, GEFS AND GEPS have been more consistent with a storm at this time frame. Dont agree with the GFS either. The link i posted above shows a trough going through South Korea,i still believe the Euro is right just to fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Dont agree with the GFS either. The link i posted above shows a trough going through South Korea,i still believe the Euro is right just to fast So New Year's Eve type time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, 1234snow said: NAVGEM also lost our main storm to suppression. I think the GFS is a little lost right now. The Euro, CMC, GEFS AND GEPS have been more consistent with a storm at this time frame. I agree the NAVGEM is suppressed though it was an improvement for us between 6z and 12z, so I'd say it will come back at 18z lessening on the suppression. I'm also concerned about getting enough cold air into the valley at all levels but it's to early to be concerned about that. As for the GFS I have no idea whats with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I was wrong with the Euro,there was a system that went through Asia that should effect us around the time frame the Euro shows.On vacation and missed this.But this is the system the Euro shows will effect us around the 28-29th,should be a SW system. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=wpac&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017122312&fh=-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I can say that most winters....we want the storm to our south and let it work back in the modeling. I have been getting some last minute shopping done....Carvers Gap local stimulus package in effect. I have been to all of the cities in the Tri-Cities today already. Anyway, when I first started following winter storms as a hobby(I did not even look at summer wx a decade ago), tnweathernut and stovepipe would always talk about ensembles. I only looked at operational runs. What I would learn from their discussions is that when the operationals were all over the place...the ensembles generally held some nice clues. Now, there are times operational runs lead the way...especially closer to the event. We are getting close to that time frame now for the 28-29 event...trends matter. I don't like the suppression being show by the GFS, but its bias is to be to progressive. The Euro likes to back north and west....I am not sure it can go much more. So, another thing I learned from JB is that systems like to ride the frontal boundary. Find that boundary and there is your storm. For weeks it seems...the frontal boundary has been over our area. I think we will see multiple shots, like Powell said, for the forum area. Here is the 12z GEFS ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 IDK what the GFS is doing. Maybe it’s right but I’m not seeing a slider to a Miller B. I hope it’s not right. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just look at the Pacific NW on the GFS. How it handles the PNA effects everything down stream. The last two runs have actually tended towards a -PNA from a positive. If it's a nice +PNA it digs a trough to the east and turns the flow SW here. With the current look there's no tall PNA ridge, that causes the flow to be flat and it just keeps the storm suppressed and scoots it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 As I had hoped the NAVGEM is less suppressed, albeit likely too warm for snow south of Kentucky and Virginia. As a side note it keeps the small system just after Christmas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This 0z run of the GFS is a bit steeper w the trough. Might allow the back of the trough to get attacked a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Energy in the Northwest is either early or new at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 There is room for the second wave to come north...let's see if it is there after 78.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 At 90...more ridging in the midsection of the country....room for precip to come north IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Definitely more going on at 96 w precip breaking out in the Plains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It's a step toward the euro and cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Indeed...big slop fest where there was nothing last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS continues its bounce around. It's literally shown every possible solution over the past 36 hours, so at least one is bound to be correct. This run at least brought back precip. Not a lot of it and it comes with a big ole warm nose thumb to our eye. The Canadian is a monster winter storm for a good portion of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Details prob not to be believed...but at 180 another winter storm impacts the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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