Kentucky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 go away freezing rain, you're not wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Major winter storm at 156. CMC is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Parts of west and middle TN are in for a major winter storm if the 0z GFS is right tonight. Crippling ice for some... just speaking of model output, not predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Best run of the week...and everyone is asleep. LOL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Cold comes crashing in and even east TN gets a major snow from the LONG duration event shown on the 0z GFS. If right, WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Kentucky said: Ugh Kentucky, that is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Kentucky, that is not good. that ice could easily be all snow sleet or rain by next week, and I hope that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS is a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It’s still snowing from Nashville east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 -8 at 198. edit: -11 at 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Sunday morning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 And this run of the GFS for the Tennessee Valley forum is brought to you by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 CMC says 1-2” of liquid at mid 20 temps. Better pray for sleet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 CMC...w yet another hold my beer moment. That is -51 on the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Major differences at the 500mb level from the 18z to 0z GFS. More energy is dumped into the Southwest this run which allows a long fetch of moisture for several hours. It’s a big change in a short amount of time. CMC is similar. 18z: 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 We better hope for more snow than ice, or this could get ugly for many areas. Signals are finally creeping back inside of seven days for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 That was a model run for the record books. Long duration event and then pipe busting cold. I believe we just got NAM’d on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I’ve got 40 pounds of propane, several deep cycle batteries, and a wood pile that says bring it! I’ll take that chaos in a heartbeat!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro running, Christmas Eve is a little colder with a little more moisture than it's last run. Will see where it goes from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Kentucky said: Ugh Yeah, that looks pretty rough right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: It’s still snowing from Nashville east . Awesome. It's Hard to get a much better look for the whole state than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is a snow event for most of the state as well. Still shows two separate storms. First wave is 1-2 inches from Jackson to Nashville, 2-4 inches across Eastern areas. Next wave comes a couple days later and puts down 1-3 more across Eastern areas. Roughly 3-6 inches falls across the northern Plateau into NE Tn, 2-4 in the central Valley of East Tn, 6-10 in SW Va, 1-3 elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Less moisture on the 06z, still an almost forum wide 1-3 inch snow with some higher pockets. Tough freezing rain event for the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The system that follows the first is suppressed into central Gulf with ice and snow on the beaches in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The next 10 days looks fun. Maybe not a boat load at once but 2-3 waves will keep us having something to look at. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12z GFS w yet another variation. Not sure I have ever seen that model struggle this badly....this is 4-5 days out and is just throwing darts. I do buy suppression as a potential problem. The CMC looks reasonable....only because something should be riding the Arctic boundary and because it keeps showing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 After last nights good run, I think we could expect a flip flop today and probably even tomorrow. It looks like we should have some cold air in place so that's half the battle. CMC has looked relatively consistent which is positive as Carver stated. As we all know around here, forecasting at any range is tough because of the climate we live in. We all have a chance at wintry precip though, and at the very least this is a good sign at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I think last night’s run of the GFS was a major blip in how it handles the energy coming thru the southwest. Most other runs doesn’t have energy digging that far south. I think a more zonal and progressive look will happen considering how our current Christmas system trended from having a trough axis stuck in Baja to not even being able to dig to Texas. I just don’t see a long duration storm happening in this pattern. I think what we will see is a few lighter events over the next couple of weeks but I think we can still get some decent shots of snow. They will just be fast moving and only dump a few inches for each system. We are getting a suppressed look now because there isn’t a way to back the flow out of the Gulf for a true Miller A unless something changes out west with a taller PNA Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Seems like on the 12z GFS Ensemble members half of them have a big storm similar to the 0z operational run and half have small events or nothing. The mean for precip is still around .5 to 1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.