John1122 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: IMO...the 12z Euro looked good again. As HM said on Twitter...don’t worry so much about the nice looking snow maps. Look at the pattern. The 28-29 energy is further north. Not here yet...but the trend is this way. Then there is another piece after that looks very much like it could be ice on future runs...nice hit for NE TN. But overall, we now have two threats inside of eight days to track...that is just inside of 8 days not what is past that. There's potential and I agree to not take anything remotely verbatim now. No telling what the actual pattern will be. The Euro gives some Christmas eve precip but it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'm not 100 percent sure I've seen temp/snow profiles handled the way the Euro does that run. Show a warm nose that sends rain in the 30s all the way up to Central Ky on this side of the Apps. Meanwhile Myrtle Beach is getting a major ice storm. It rains for several hours across the forum, then the rain changes to snow in the Eastern areas and stays rain in the Mid-State. This produces a burst of very heavy snow on the Northern Plateau to NE Tennessee and points north. South Central Kentucky is all rain and it's rain mixed with snow to the North West of me. The NC side of the Apps are getting heavy snow/ice. Cold air is crashing into the western forum but the moisture is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, John1122 said: There's potential and I agree to not take anything remotely verbatim now. No telling what the actual pattern will be. The Euro gives some Christmas eve precip but it's rain. Agree the runs just get weird. Wonder if the low level cold is not being “seen?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is when the snow is really rolling across the Eastern areas, north of 40 mainly. The weird warm nose in Middle Tennessee seems strange to me. Not that it's there, that it sort of effects the eastern areas but somehow it shrinks and the eastern areas escape it's influence to switch to snow. The winds are out of the due south and the 850s are +2 C at hour 186. The freezing level falls from 5000-7000 feet over the eastern forum down to near surface freezing and the 850s crash from 2 to -2. I really don't understand exactly how all that happens with South winds and a well established warm nose in place. Not sure why it happens here but not in South Central Kentucky, technically closer to the cold air. It's an interesting outcome to me and I'd love it if it can be explained by anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 was the snow breaking out right now in the texas panhandle shown on any recent model??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro OP and EPS looking like they are starting to agree. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, BillT said: was the snow breaking out right now in the texas panhandle shown on any recent model??? None of the global models caught onto to it other than the canadian partially. Not many short range models saw it either. I think the Swiss Super HD may have had it yesterday if I'm not mistaken. If anything this clearly highlights how little we know will happen more than 5 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The 12z Euro control/mean are nice. Mean is 2" in Memphis and 7" in Elizabethton. SE corner to NE corner. The control is a major hit w 1' in middle and west TN....but the rest on the forum area also scores. Matter of time IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z Euro control/mean are nice. Mean is 2" in Memphis and 7" in Elizabethton. SE corner to NE corner. The control is a major hit w 1' in middle and west TN....but the rest on the forum area also scores. Matter of time IMO. I like the sound of that! Thanks for the update, Carver.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I like the sound of that! Thanks for the update, Carver.. 18z GFS at 120 is close for you. Light snow accumulation for the northern Plateau on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Ice breaking out at 132 in the middle and western forum areas on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Major CAD system for the Carolinas at 150. GFS prob too warm...the Euro and the CMC are modeled a bit colder. The ensembles are colder. This time frame looks decent for ice or snow in the forum area. Look at the pattern and not the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Like I said earlier...no piece of energy can be ignored even if it seems like it is sliding across the northern GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1059 hp over MT at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Motherload is coming SE out Montana. Pay me now or pay me later. If the storm slides, we get snow and ice. If it does a Miller B through the TN, the Arctic cold follows on the storm's heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Major CAD system for the Carolinas at 150. GFS prob too warm...the Euro and the CMC are modeled a bit colder. The ensembles are colder. This time frame looks decent for ice or snow in the forum area. Look at the pattern and not the snow maps. I agree, GFS just seems to be lacking behind on the temps. Great potential though as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Amazing run for cold....low single digits at 210 with now snow or ice on the ground. If there was either on the ground...that air mass as modeled would challenge records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 As for cold...this run is about to rank with the best in terms of cold. 18z is happy hour for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: As for cold...this run is about to rank with the best in terms of cold. 18z is happy hour for sure. No doubt. When Tampa Bay is nearly in freezing temps, you know it's a good run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 hours ago, BillT said: was the snow breaking out right now in the texas panhandle shown on any recent model??? The NAM started to pick up on this around 36hrs prior. Margins were less then of course but it picked up on it nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 And then one of John's favorite wx features....a cutter into an Arctic high. This one at 276 actually makes a bit more sense. The low catches return flow off a high that goes into the Atlantic. Looks like as these periods of cold rotate down, the nase of the departing trough is attacked by energy in the SW. At some point the cold will not get out of the way. Really stormy pattern on several runs of several models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z Sunday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Even with the cutters. Here is the 18z operational. GEFS should be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro don't look bad 30th and 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GEFS mean is rolling. When it hits day 16...gonna be hefty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Man, looks like things are trending away from anything in my area of the valley. It’s tough to watch these types of storms where we get cold rain and it’s an ice storm to my south and east. Pattern looks good for something good eventually though. The chase is half the fun anyways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS mean is rolling. When it hits day 16...gonna be hefty.Did it get stuck at day 15?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Did it get stuck at day 15? Nice ensemble. Snow means into FL and Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 0z GFS is rolling. The 0z NAM now has a weak slp to our east on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Incoming at 126.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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