Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro was south and the 18z GFS is north. My money is on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I thought the Euro was a cutter this time. Haven't had time to look closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Lots of changes on the Euro the past few runs,gonna be awhile to iron this out with the shortwaves and all.Look at the 700mb from the Euro last night and the 12z,both are 12z next Sunday the 31st.First pic is last evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Should have posted the 5H,maybe shed some better clarity.But you can still see the differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro weeklies drops the polar pig in the first week of January. I think it settles the ensembles debate. Putting my chips on cold. Christmas week storm tracks have been a struggle. 500 mb heights are still AN in the Deep South next week. Flow is slightly cyclonic, not at all a ridge, but AN heights is still a challenge. New Years week ensembles are mostly BN heights. Weeklies bury heights. Barring a shocking change, I like the Christmas cold intensifying at the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Agree w Jeff...snow means for the Weeklies are stout. Hey...and what about the 0z NAM at hour 69? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Agree w Jeff...snow means for the Weeklies are stout. Hey...and what about the 0z NAM at hour 69? Christmas flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 After the blip towards supression, the cutter parade has resumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The Euro goes back to a very supressed look. Rain south of the valley. Not much cooking here. I'm not sure when then models will work this out. They are basically throwing darts right now. Storm signal is there. Could run from Oklahoma City to Chicago, could run from Brownsville to Central Florida. Models seem to have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 hours ago, John1122 said: The Euro goes back to a very supressed look. Rain south of the valley. Not much cooking here. I'm not sure when then models will work this out. They are basically throwing darts right now. Storm signal is there. Could run from Oklahoma City to Chicago, could run from Brownsville to Central Florida. Models seem to have no clue. I think after this weekend we will have a much better outlook on what's coming after Christmas. At this point there are just too many variables being thrown at these models, hence all the crazy outcomes we've seen over the past 5 days. I wouldn't worry too much about the EURO going back to a more suppressed look, as it's done this on storms earlier this month. I believe by the 25th we will all have a ballpark idea of where and what this system is going to do. Overall, I still feel confident that with cold air in place, some if not most of the forum will get to enjoy some snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Man I hope this isn’t one of those years where the cold air is always 7 days away. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The only model I see w cutters is the GFS. The GEM and Euro are way south. Have to think the GFS caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Man I hope this isn’t one of those years where the cold air is always 7 days away. . At this latitude, that is always a concern. Still looks like cold is on tap for Christmas Eve and holds. The EPS is almost wall to wall cold w some frigid stuff out there. The cold is there though. I just think the SER will try to fight. Weeklies support the cold EPS. The GFS might score a coup, but it is on a limb for sure. I do think we see a thaw in January. Even the best winters saw warm breaks. I have been out of pocket for a couple of days, so have had less time to look at the models. Jeff covered it really well above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It is easy to forget that most of our winters do not begin this early. We have already had snow far south into the forum region. We have 2-3 weeks of cold on tap before a thaw/pattern change(no idea which). Below is the 6z GEFS snow mean. I am using that to show that the model ensemble favors suppression as evidences by the snow mean deep into the SE. The other image is the Weeklies snow mean. I double checked the models...other than the initial cutter which was a given, it looks like the CMC and Euro are very suppressed. I am far more concerned about a suppressed pattern. Also, remember how long it took for the models to get Christmas Eve correct at 500. They are still correcting w 48 hours to go...not saying snow, but the 500 pattern. The NAM has a weak inland cutter on the 24th....and it is probably up to its usual tricks of being too amped. But who knows for sure. What we want to see for the system on the 28-29 time frame is a suppressed system on the Euro. We learned from the last system that the track will likely correct north and west. I think the Euro is in a great spot. Again, take a look at the maps...those eastern and southern snow means suggest suppressed tracks w a EC snowstorm component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 hours ago, John1122 said: The Euro goes back to a very supressed look. Rain south of the valley. Not much cooking here. I'm not sure when then models will work this out. They are basically throwing darts right now. Storm signal is there. Could run from Oklahoma City to Chicago, could run from Brownsville to Central Florida. Models seem to have no clue. So true. I think how rough of a time the models had at just getting the macro 500 pattern correct for this weekend. Have to think the micro details of tracks will not be worked out until inside of four days if even that. Great disco overnight. Will be shopping today. Keep the disco going you all! It has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Man I hope this isn’t one of those years where the cold air is always 7 days away. . I'm right there with you, buddy! On a side note- The rain started here around 6:30am this morning, its gonna be a gullie washer type of day. It was Nice to see how the models corrected the timing of this event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 41 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I know we love to go knee/waist deep in teleconnection talk...and rightfully so. But just stepping back and looking down at CPC's latest 6-10 day forecast from the 40k foot level, it's hard not to get a little excited...despite the lack of confidence/certainty. Before any forums or model watching....the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 were the forecasts that I looked at. If I saw AN precip and BN temps...I liked my chances. Still feel the same way looking at those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Adding to what Flash said...The 32k 12z NAM has more precip on the 24th and has increased w each run....GFS now doing the same. Noting big, but shows how the models can change even at close range w this pattern. Don't sleep on that GFS energy @132 on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Sure enough, the 12z CMC has a storm for the hour I mentioned in that last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z GFS feeling that hp over the top now....adios to the cutter. That is a cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, *Flash* said: Yeah 132 is interesting. Don't know if I buy the suppression magnitude D6/7; prefer CMC look. Agree. We want it there though at seven days out. Has plenty of time to come north IMO....just don't want a cutter(obviously). To me...big time signal for a slider right there just looking at the model runs(of several wx models) over the past 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The madness is real with these 700 mile swings on storm track from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The madness is real with these 700 mile swings on storm track from run to run. Yeah, agree. The storms are not just being moved...but the entire NA pattern is swinging all over the place by the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just too many moving parts. Massive differences but cold is a constant...and pressing highs. I am suspicious of any model getting too much latitude w storms relative to our area. But one can see at 12z, this is a cold pattern and not dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CPC 8-14 day charts are even better... 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: I know we love to go knee/waist deep in teleconnection talk...and rightfully so. But just stepping back and looking down at CPC's latest 6-10 day forecast from the 40k foot level, it's hard not to get a little excited...despite the lack of confidence/certainty. CPC 8-14 day is even colder. AN precip is shifted south which is good because it is usually rain. We'll take normal or even BN liquid in the snow zone. No promises, not even a forecast, but I'm certainly hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 You know, another thing to watch is AK. Some of these runs are really cold there...and here. That usually does not happen. Usually one or the other. Plenty of fluidity right now. Thinking many of these systems need to be inside day 5 in order to see consistent trends and placement...true most times anyway. Give me cold. Give me precip. Bout all we can ask at this range... Also, remember the GFS is often guilty of breaking down patterns too soon...we will be dealing with that for future runs I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Before any forums or model watching....the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 were the forecasts that I looked at. If I saw AN precip and BN temps...I liked my chances. Still feel the same way looking at those maps.But how much of that above normal precipitation is going to fall in the next couple of days before the cold gets here?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: But how much of that above normal precipitation is going to fall in the next couple of days before the cold gets here? . Flash’s CPC maps are Dec 27-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 IMO...the 12z Euro looked good again. As HM said on Twitter...don’t worry so much about the nice looking snow maps. Look at the pattern. The 28-29 energy is further north. Not here yet...but the trend is this way. Then there is another piece after that looks very much like it could be ice on future runs...nice hit for NE TN. But overall, we now have two threats inside of eight days to track...that is just inside of 8 days not what is past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro suppressed again for system 1. Has another system day 9 that give the eastern forum snow. Could happened as modeled, 0 confidence beyond D3 right now though on every model. They're all out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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