John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I can't imagine the Canadian coming true, but it was very close to what the Euro showed and seems to make sense given strength/placement of the highs and the potential storm. It makes more sense to me than the GFS holding back huge highs and cutting storms into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Might have to keep an eye on the Harpeth River here in Middle TN.Should be some flood watches posted tomorrow sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 DT talks about why he doesn't believe what the GFS is saying with the event on the 30th. If you want to skip to that, go to 11:43. Very good video overall though. Some hope for the event the Canadian/Euro are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 His reasoning from the video applied to the 18z GFS, it's doing the same thing on the 00z. Operational has a sharp, deep trough in the west and a big ridge over Florida. The 00z GEFS at the same time shows a much broader trough extending across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Once again the OP isn't supported by it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is suppressed this time around. Storm is off the SE coast and give Myrtle Beach winter. So for 00z, GFS way north, rainer. Canadian is the new ice age. Euro suppressed way South and East. OPs aren't handling anything well regarding placement but all strongly agree on a storm. Time to ride the ensembles for a few days and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 hours ago, John1122 said: I can't imagine the Canadian coming true, but it was very close to what the Euro showed and seems to make sense given strength/placement of the highs and the potential storm. It makes more sense to me than the GFS holding back huge highs and cutting storms into them. Goodness, cannot even imagine Nashville with that - I believe our record is 17" - likely not true but I think representative of what the pattern is capable of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 12z EPS was very cold. Uptick on its snow mean. The ensembles are very good from the major models. The GFS is just struggling. Again, I think that is a signal of some very cold air. I think the 0z Euro being suppressed at this range is a great sign. I would really not be surprised for something in this pattern to pop-up that we are not expecting. The alignment of the trough is good. The base of it is a bit flatter. Looks like a slider would be something to be expected. Also have to think there are some pieces of energy in that northern stream that are not seen as well as with split flow. The short range will need to be watched after Christmas. Once this starts....there may be several storms to track. And remember, if the cold is as strong as models hint....the cold will press further than modeled IMO. Again, I like the ensembles. If it was NASCAR... the green flag is about to drop. The Weeklies roll tonight off a decently cold 0z....hoping they don't thrown the white flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Agree, Carvers. I would add, although I am fairly confident the OP GFS is wrong in driving the trough into the west (the big flag is not being in agreement with its own ensembles), it could score quite the victory if it's right. i have seen it being thrown around on these forums that a low simply can't push into such a large high pressure and I don't think the people saying that are accurate. It doesn't really have anything to do with the high itself, but rather what setup is involved to keep the high from moving out. Growing up I remember two times where it was in the single digits less than a day from the storm. When these storm hit it warmed into and through the 30's for a cold rain after starting as a little bit of sleet/ ice. This happened because there was nothing to anchor the highs in place. Even though these cold air masses are more dense, they can, and do get pushed out of the way in the south with an approaching storm and robust return southerly flow. I guess long story short.......the pattern itself determines a highs staying power, not a big number on a high just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 WPC starting to show some probabilities in its long range forecast for the forum. Granted its the 7th and last day of their issuance Dec 28th, still interesting to see that they also see a potential for a storm in the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z GFS 90h w a sneaky piece of energy that phases w the eastern trough...bit late for us. But was not there w precip before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Out at 168, looks a bit more like a slider on the GFS, at least at that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z cmc gives valley snow 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 At 186....there is the ice storm on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12Z GFS is a thing of beauty in that it seems to be moving in a direction toward ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z GFS caving to the other models...major winter storm underway at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Snow end to end across Tennessee at 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Snow end to end across Tennessee at 204 Totals at 204 need the cold sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Totals at 204 Was just getting ready to post that. That is a big move by the GFS toward the majority of models. Hope it keeps that trend going, still think GFS is too warm which cuts into totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The GFS gives me 1.2 inches of freezing rain with 8 inches of snow on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: The GFS gives me 1.2 inches of freezing rain with 8 inches of snow on top of it. Wont be a tree left standing on your property! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GFS caving to the other models...major winter storm underway at 192. You can't ask for a much better sign than that. Good to see some of the models getting on the same page! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Definitely some good signs on the GFS this time around, Will see what the euro has to say in a little bit. For Christmas on the euro it was much colder on 0z than 12z while keeping enough moisture for flakes to fly. Another shift or two with a little better agreement may mean we sneak this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yep, 12z GFS caved to its own ensembles. Will be interesting to see if other modeling and ensembles continue to honk at the end of the year time frame. Certainly could be a big ticket item for someone in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I bet once we get inside 5 days we will see this thing become more clear than usual for a winter storm. This doesn’t rely on phasing and this and that coming together to spark a bomb or anything like that. Just the timing of a short wave under some cold air. A remember the Jan 10-12, 2010 storm being very well modeled out 4-5 days for the same reason. I guess that could change but right now that’s what this looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: I bet once we get inside 5 days we will see this thing become more clear than usual for a winter storm. This doesn’t rely on phasing and this and that coming together to spark a bomb or anything like that. Just the timing of a short wave under some cold air. A remember the Jan 10-12, 2010 storm being very well modeled out 4-5 days for the same reason. I guess that could change but right now that’s what this looks like That was a good storm still remember it well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro looks like another long wave,cold chasing moisture.Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 You all remember that it took several days before the operationals were able to correct to solutions that made sense regarding the axis of the trough on the 25th. Every piece of energy has to be watched....there is plenty of room for corrections one way or the other regarding each system. Remember Flash's graphic w the chip bouncing to the bottom and the further it got away from the top...the greater variety of choices? Each system in the pattern is dependent on the one in front of it. Right now we have several big things going for us....cold in the East, a decent pattern at 500, a decent Pacific, potentially split flow, and climo supports winter for this time of year. Right now...just too many moving pieces. It has been a while since we have seen a pattern this active. Easy to forget how tough it is to nail anything down. I like the chances for someone in the forum area to see a significant winter storm somtime during the next 2-3 weeks. Some years, the pattern was so active...we did not even look past day seven. I think this is going to be one of those time frames...maybe not the entire season, but prob to the second week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z EPS looks cold w a decent snow mean and some big hitters through d15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 A great example of needing to keep an eye on the models even during short range is the piece of energy that the NAM and GFS now have on their most recent runs of 18z and 12z, respectively. The piece of energy slides eastward on the 24th and attempts to phase on the coast. Confluence does not help us at this point...but the precip was not there on earlier runs. Imagine the numbers of features just like that one that the models are juggling...not including the ones they don't see yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: A great example of needing to keep an eye on the models even during short range is the piece of energy that the NAM and GFS now have on their most recent runs of 18z and 12z, respectively. The piece of energy slides eastward on the 24th and attempts to phase on the coast. Confluence does not help us at this point...but the precip was not there on earlier runs. Imagine the numbers of features just like that one that the models are juggling...not including the ones they don't see yet. Good point, things are gonna be developing on the fly a lot over the next week or two. I found it interesting on the southeastern board that the consensus was the New CMC and U.K. Did the best at nailing the huge show that came in early December for Alabama, Georgia, NC, etc. The Euro was too suppressed most of the time until about 48 hrs out .Just some food for thought as we all get ready for a Years a worth of model watching crammed into about two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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