AMZ8990 Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We ALL ok w the 12z Euro, right? Pretty juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I'd love to see some consistency from the models. The Euro is definitely a dump and an old school one that that. There used to be times when we'd go from rain to snow and get heavy snow, it seems rare these days. Now we either seem to always start as snow and have to hope it stays snow instead of switching to rain. We live in the most frustrating area of the nation regarding winter forecasting. I swear it seems like the models can sniff out a deep south snow further out than they can sniff one out here. I don't remember the last time we truly had a weeks notice for a winter storm that actually happened as modeled. Maybe 2010 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah, but why cant it be 3-4 days out?Even the LLJ screams warm nose.It would definite be we found that needle in the haystack..lol I know. The models at 12z have almost all been more suppressed. There are like 1,500 solutions out there right now...not even the same pieces of energy are on each model....I think we are entering one of those times that we really need to watch each system w the cold pressing south. The models are probably under doing the southern extent of the cold relative to each run. But there is a model run out there for pretty much everyone today at some time on some model. Definite storm signal. No details. The 12z UKMET has an Apps runner on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Sure beats last December tho, right!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Sure beats last December tho, right!? Yeah,been some time since we ever seen a Dec. like this one.Hope (fingers crossed) Jan stays as active as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Sure beats last December tho, right!? For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 QPFS for 12z euro..to early to tell if it's real or ratios TYS .66 STILL GOING BNA .75 TRI .63 still going MEM .42 CHA..37 still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Feel confident we'll see a storm,both the GFS and Euro shows it in Asia in the next couple of days.Euro is faster than the GFS in timing right now in the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 We're gonna start covering greens tomorrow at the course because of the upcoming cold pattern. It's the first time we've had to do it all year. Hopefully that gives us some good luck and we can all score a big snow throughout the forum!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I have cautiously and quietly kept a glimmer of hope for a White Christmas. As Carver had mentioned the stalled front in Tennessee shown a few days ago is well out of the way. So far out of the way in fact another system makes it's way in Christmas Eve. It appears to me it does not have a defined center of low pressure and I'm not quite sure if it would fall under the definition of a clipper considering it's origin in Washington state. Regardless, it's something worth at least a glance showing up not just on the Euro but also the Canadian. The European has more moisture but less cold and vice versa for the Canadian model. It should be noted the GFS entirely drops the system outside of the rockies. For anyone north of I-40 I'd say there's still a chance albeit slim with chances rising in the typically favored areas. If all this leads to nothing it seems we got a pretty sweet pattern being advertised onward to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 EURO snow forecasted at end of run. For Knoxville city by city. Calling for 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The Control is a little less zealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Some very big dog members in the control though, one putting 16 to 20" in Nashville, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: The Control is a little less zealous. Don't worry, it goes crazy with a mega slider just after New Years and drops 4-15+ inches almost valley wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, John1122 said: Don't worry, it goes crazy with a mega slider just after New Years and drops 4-15+ inches almost valley wide Ha ha yep sure does didn't look out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 December 28th...0z. Can someone place the past three runs of the GFS next to each other or in a TT GIF? Set it to 500mb height anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 12z EPS consistently shows cold from the 24th w maybe a slight break to seasonal for one day. Otherwise, I think ensembles are the way to go. The 18z GFS has zero model support from any model. Better hope that is not happy hour finding the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z EPS consistently shows cold from the 24th w maybe a slight break to seasonal for one day. Otherwise, I think ensembles are the way to go. The 18z GEFS has zero model support from any model. Better hope that is not happy hour finding the trend. Did you mean 18z gfs cause I looked at GEFS and it still shows cold but the gfs shows 60s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 The GEPS looked really good too. Basically from HR96 out to HR240 it never got over 38 degrees across the state on the 2-Meter air temps. The majority of that time frame was below freezing throughout the state. In line with the EPS for the most part as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Did you mean 18z gfs cause I looked at GEFS and it still shows cold but the gfs shows 60s and rain. Yeah, man...thanks. GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 FTR...the GEFS at 18z looks very consistent and says the operational is big outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Some good trends today at long leads. The ensembles look good for "opportunity" as we close out 2018 and head into 2019. We need to start reeling this timeframe in, however.... should be a fun Christmas holiday to follow, as long as the ensemble packages and other methods aren't smoking the collective crack pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GEFS ensemble. The operational was a completely new solution. The ensemble was consistent. Says operational was an outlier. I might add the UKMET is a good tool at this point in the game. Definitely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GEFS ensemble. The operational was a completely new solution. The ensemble was consistent. Says operational was an outlier. I might add the UKMET is a good tool at this point in the game. Definitely interesting. Interesting indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GEFS ensemble. The operational was a completely new solution. The ensemble was consistent. Says operational was an outlier. I might add the UKMET is a good tool at this point in the game. Definitely interesting. That's quite a bullseye on the north east too btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 So the GFS op now has a double cutter with a 1050+ high north of the storms. Some 70 degree temperature differences showing up on one side of the storm vs the other. Baffling that it's spitting out these solutions but obviously something it sees as highly plausible since it keeps throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The Canadian on the other hand is a multiday monster that ends up looking like a mix between the 12z euro op and 12z Euro control. Approaching 2 feet totals north of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gotta love the trends,if we don't score something out of this with one of these systems,we never will.Good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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