John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Good info. Have to think ice is this equation somewhere. Again, I would not be surprised to see the Euro come back to the original ice storm from a few days ago. Those big highs hitting a near vertical conveyor belt out of the GOM. John, Flash and I were kicking this around the other day...is it the Euro or GFS or both that lose storms from d5-8 only to return to the same solution? If so, that ice storm may pop back up on a future run. I've seen them all lose storms for a period in that range only to slowly bring them back. The GFS is especially bad to lose a storm to Cuba only to have to rapidly correct back north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The individual members of the Euro that show snow are fairly close to the Euro Op's snow track for the most part. Though there are a number of other individual members that have the same axis of heavy snow but it's more east on different members. Some show Memphis to Clarksville. Others Jackson to Nashville and others Chattanooga to Tri Cities. On almost every one it's narrow band, probably 150 miles wide with the heaviest part probably being 90 miles wide.Which section of Tennessee had the most members on board and how many did E Tennessee have overall?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Which section of Tennessee had the most members on board and how many did E Tennessee have overall? . For more than 2 inches, I'd say the most members hit Clarksville and Nashville areas. East Tennessee had 2 or 3 for the Central Valley and Eastward. There were more from the Plateau and Westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 For more than 2 inches, I'd say the most members hit Clarksville and Nashville areas. East Tennessee had 2 or 3 for the Central Valley and Eastward. There were more from the Plateau and Westward. Wow... it was 40 of 50 the other day. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 At 66h on the 0z GFS...I like the trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Wow... it was 40 of 50 the other day. . 40 of 50 showed some snow in at least part of the forum. I'd say around 35-40 did on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 More blocking on the west coast again this run through 102, sending the trough more into the Rockies rather than off the Pac NW coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Hour 114 on the GFS the trough hasn’t dug as far west in the Pacific Northwest this time. Maybe a little more progressive to the naked eye but it’s close. Anything different at this point will make huge changes later downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Cold air is in the western forum by the 23rd, it's snowing in West Tennessee and SW Kentucky by midnight of the 23rd now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 More blocking on the west coast again this run through 102, sending the trough more into the Rockies rather than off the Pac NW coast. I agree John. First wave is quicker and the energy behind that is further east over the Rockies. This should send some nice cold this way later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 132 it's snowing on the Plateau. Maybe over doing it since it's cold chasing moisture. But the main takeaway rather than 70 at this time the cold is pressing SE quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 138 the front is clearing East Tennessee, looks like energy gathering in the Colorado area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Less feedback on the EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Hour 138 (18z Dec. 23rd) the front (with some marginal back end snow) has made it thru the entire forum area the cold is creeping in. Trough is much flatter out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Energy dropping towards the Texas panhandle by 144, 1052 high about to hit NE Wyoming. It may squash the energy into Mexico or it may develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 156 the high is strengthening, the gulf is starting to activate and the energy is in the Texas panhandle still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Hour 156 snow is breaking out across Oklahoma and the 850 0c line is below most of TN except Chatty. Let’s see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Energy in Texas washes out. Winter event breaking out in New Orleans on Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Hour 168 looks like a swing and a miss. Precip shield out of Oklahoma stopped spreading eastward. New development popped up along the Gulf Coast with LA/MS turning to snow but it will be too suppressed for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Deep south snow streak from Western Carolina to the New Orleans. Very narrow. Rain over most of the SE. Tennessee bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Give me a slow moving frontal boundary in the GOM...all day, every day. Odds that cold front makes it to the Yucatán? Big storms are born on those fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Not a terrible spot to be in Christmas day, if it will keep this basic trend I could see a NW trend for the precip shield. All the models have the narrow strip of snow. It seems to be a matter of where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Talking about historic, two deep south snow events of 2+ inches in the month of December may have never happened in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Hour 180 it was very close to having a nice winter storm for us. Snow breaks out on the other side of the Apps. Main take aways from this run is that the cold air gets here quicker and is in place for Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. This is a direct result from no energy being left behind in the California/Nevada regions and a progressive trough that sweeps across the country instead of getting stuck. This solution is literally hundreds of miles away from the past few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Right before 174...there is a wave on the frontal boundary. At this range...all you can ask for. The 18z has some decent trends. The NAM is a good clue at to where the GFS follows...at least so far. The 0z GFS rides again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The 0z CMC...night and day. I like that the 0z GFS has some support from the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Goodnight Irene, a 1062 hp is dropping into the Northern Plains at 234 with a gathering system heading eastward. It may also get suppressed into the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Don’t sleep on the CMC. Flirting w 1070 over there and a storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Crazy solution at 500mb on the GFS. Skinny trough on the front range. Massive high is moving NW back into Canada towards a block and it's going to allow the storm to cut the Lakes possibly. I've never seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The 0z model runs of the GEM and GFS keep saying, “Hold my beer.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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