Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Who remembers the time frame where the Euro loses storms? I think it is days 5-8. Correct or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 If you all want to see why I have been less than confident a the GFS....go to 6z on Tropical Tidbits and switch it to 500mb height anomaly. Go to around 228h, hit play, and watch what it does to the BN heights. The old BN sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I thought that was a GFS bias more than Euro but could be wrong. My default is to lean Euro (4 Corner issues aside) as GFS sorts itself out in the mid range, but I can’t remember where I got that from. Honestly, Carv, I’m getting more nervous about middle Tennessee getting shut out while areas that have already seen snow this winter get a second helping. Would be thrilled for East TN members who missed out last time. Still about a week out...I think the conversation as expected will move to which piece of energy the Euro tries to jump on as the main piece. I still think an overrunning wave event has high potential. These models are struggling. Those big highs are finally being “seen” by the models. Now, that energy from the previous runs did not disappear IMO. Maybe something like a wave event followed by a storm on the EC? Until they get the pattern...tracking will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Still about a week out...I think the conversation as expected will move to which piece of energy the Euro tries to jump on as the main piece. I still think an overrunning wave event has high potential. These models are struggling. Those big highs are finally being “seen” by the models. Now, that energy from the previous runs did not disappear IMO. Maybe something like a wave event followed by a storm on the EC? Until they get the pattern...tracking will be tough. I agree, it's gonna be hard to track anything until we get a few kinks ironed out. We've got plenty of solutions on the table though, I wouldn't put to much weight into anything just yet. I think everyone in the forum is still in play though, with what we've seen the previous 3 days, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think there was better agreement last night among the ensembles. But the models have been washing away trends like footprints on the seashore. Some consistent features have been very cold Arctic air into the entirety of the Plains, a SE ridge prior to Christmas that is tough to budge, cold moving East out of the northern Plains, and precip out of the GOM originating in TX. I might add the trend of making the cutoff more progressive out of the SW and making the East colder from Christmas Day and after...but would like a couple of more runs before locking those trends in.... I still think this is a pattern that produces ice on the southern fringes. The EPS had decent snow means for all of KY. What does that mean for those of us to the south of that mean? Anyway, put those ingredients together...and it would take serious work not to get at least 2-3 events to track for the forum area. Don’t forget that the cold will be attacked as it leaves. Just a ton of moving parts w very cold air factored into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 One thing to keep in mind. If we actually get split flow, modeling will be even more erratic than normal. Interactions between two streams are notoriously difficult to model. This leads to modeling with fairly big swings, even as close as 3 to 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 It seems the 12z GFS is overamping the EPO ridge. When it does that, the trough hangs back West. I think it is an error. Looks like feedback. Terrible run-to-run continuity for an event (trough placement for the entire NA pattern) that is five days away. It is struggling with the entire NA pattern where changes begin on Weds. I can understand struggles past d7. It is swinging wildly w a pattern evolution that begins in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 As soon as it begins to back cold west across the Rockies along w the trough...I am done w the run. At 156 the trough axis is to Seattle...the entire thing. At 6z, it was over the front range of the Rockies. It is absolutely lost. One of these runs will be right....maybe this one. Likely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z has temps in the 60’s now on Christmas Day. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Cold air takes over at 12z on the 26th. About a day and a half later than last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 That high is freaking crazy, 1059 hanging out in the Rockies, slowly spreading it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I’m about to concede to the cold air hanging up out west. It’s has shown this, gone away and came back to it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 This is 0z on December 25th. The left is the current run at 12z. The right is 6z. The changes that begin this pattern begin on Wednesday...and look at the massive differences the GFS is producing in the Pacific from run to run. It is replacing troughs with ridges. No continuity. Big time consequence downstream with each of these changes. The 12z GFS overamps the EPO ridge allowing it to undercut and really just becomes high latitude blocking and not an EPO ridge. Looks like feedback to me. But that feedback is allowing the ridge to be undercut. If the Euro is consistent at 12z...time to give the GFS much less weight. The GEM is also doing something similar at 500. Both do not look resonable (edit....might happen but ensembles disagree) given neither model is being consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z GFS has major feedback problems w the high over AK. Major. No way that run can be given more than marginal consideration. Much too strong IMO...off the charts compared to its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Both the GEM and GFS at 12z are backing cutoffs westward across the Rockies and cutting them off over San Francisco. When has this actually happened? I can't really say they are reverting back to a particular solution because they have cycled through so many possibilities. When the entire circulation pattern of NA is changed every run, the model cannot be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Interestingly....the crazy runs of the GFS and CMC both seem to move to cold in the East around Dec 26th as Powell mentioned. What concerns me is how they get there. But they do get there. I suspect the energy coming into Seattle gets kicked along. If so, the trough and winter weather arrive 48 hours earlier. Let us see what the Euro does and the ensembles. Both the GFS and CMC do hint at ice around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Anyone want to post a pic of that GEM @234 1067 hp w -51F temps under it in Wyoming? Edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Anyone want to post a pic of that GEM @234 1067 hp over Montana w -51F temps under it? -50ish in Wyoming at hour 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Off the chart negative anomalies at the end of the (-30C below average) CMC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Sorry...meant Wyoming....I have fished there a ton. I should know better. -51F at 234. While unreal, and I do think very cold air will arrive on Christmas or after.....that is a great example of feedback. It could happen, but likely won't. Models are really like extremes during the past several runs as evidenced by the wild shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think all models are in agreement that first wave will kick out around the 22-23rd and be a cutter bringing us a rainstorm. What happens next is some of the biggest run to run inconsistencies I’ve ever seen at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I think all models are in agreement that first wave will kick out around the 22-23rd and be a cutter bringing us a rainstorm. What happens next is some of the biggest run to run inconsistencies I’ve ever seen at that time range. Agree. The 12z GEFS looks very consistent to 6z. That is a massive step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Excellent run of the 12z GEFS....the GEFS has moved progressively to the colder EPS solutions of the past four runs. If the EPS holds at 12z...it took the GEFS to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z Euro rolling. Energy approaching Seattle looks a bit weaker, slightly quicker, and ever so slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 @48....the energy approaching the Northwest is slightly faster. Ridge is slightly stronger but slightly shorter coming in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 @60 the energy is quicker and a tad stronger. As we discussed yesterday on the forum, the heights behind that trough in the GOA usually give a clue as to how far the trough digs into the southwest. The heights are a bit stronger thus run...should dig a bit more....but the ridge is shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 At 114, trough in the four corners starts to move eastward and is a tad more strung out than 0z. EPO ridge is shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The differences are slight at 144 on the GFS and Euro, but that slight difference may be enough to make a big difference here. The Euro has the high closer to the coast and doesn't push the trough as far west as the 12z GFS did, which had the trouch aligned off shore of Washington State. Still all that needs to be a few hundred miles east to match the epic GFS run from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 At 138 cold air is spilling into the front range of the Rockies and Plains. Is a tad slower. EPO ridge is a bit shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Jump to hour 162 and rain is spread out across the whole state but the 32 degree line is stretched out on a line from OKC-Indy-Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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