Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think that is a piece of the polar vortex over MN @192. Snow on the backside of the front in MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I'll take it, Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 And there it is at 204. Snow on the front up into the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Oh boy, here we go. Model pornYes I think E Tennessee is about to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Birmingham gets crushed again,unreal if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 About to be some huge totals in the valley . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 At 204-210 a wave rides the front and basically forms a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 ....aaand the clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 If that run were to verify...some plumbers will be making some money. Piece of the polar vortex inbound over the GLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Talk about one heck of a 180 on the GFS. From a cutter to a Miller A thump on the next run. Then Santa and the Polar Vortex comes for a direct visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: If that run were to verify...some plumbers will be making some money. Piece of the polar vortex inbound. No joke,that "H" looks mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 A 1055 hp in the northern Plains at 228. This is what happens if the trough does not hang-up in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 A 1055 hp in the northern Plains at 228. This is what happens if the trough does not hang-up in the southwest.Like we have thought all along had a 10% chance of happening. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The temperature differentials from 18z for various areas should be interesting. At 276, that piece of the PV enters the TN Valley forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The temperature differentials from 18z for various areas should be interesting. At 276, that piece of the PV enters the TN Valley forum area. If that verifies, it looks like single digits for HIGHS. Will be a first for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 There is a second storm at 252 along the coast and another that will attack the back of this cold later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Canadian has highs in the mid 60’s for Christmas Day. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think this may be the more realistic idea. Have a first wave be all rain as the southwest energy kicks out and the first wave lays down the cold air for the next wave to ride along the front already established. I’ve never really bought the cut off hanging in the Baja forever like you guys. It just doesn’t make sense in a progressive La Niña pattern. Maybe in a El Niño but it doesn’t happen as often in La Niñas. This scenario cuts down on the ice but anything is on the table. We are seeing some hundred mile shifts run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: There is a second storm at 252 along the coast and another that will attack the back of this cold later in the run. “It’s the gift that keeps on giving Clark”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The 0z GEM managed to back a trough from Idaho to Oakland, southwest over the Rockies, and under a -EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The 0z GEFS obviously(because it is an ensemble) would not support such an extreme run....but it looks to have begun the process of walking back the SE ridge....won't get it done this run, but much more muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Check that. 0z GEFS erases the SE ridge by say 228. 500 rebounds, but 2m is cold by 276. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 So, anything decent on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The Euro is cold and dry after the rain/frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6z is similar to 0z gfs in pattern but less in snow totals, still Miller A.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 It's actually a bit refreshing to see 2 runs that are at least similar.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Nice improvements with the ensembles overnight. The Euro/EPS maintain consistency, though still play a few games in the southwest. The EPS, GEPS, and GEFS are now in reasonable agreement that the cold comes East. The 0z GFS operational was an extreme example, but the 0z Euro followed with similar continuity. The 6z GFS has some continuity, but then does some strange things at 500. I think the pattern that we are seeing from overnight runs is this....very cold air will dump into the Plains w massive highs. The cold will then bleed East somewhere between Christmas Eve and Dec 26. It does appear that two storms will ride the slow moving boundary. One(at least to this point...who knows at 12z?) will cut, but we knew that. The other may try to form a Miller A on the front as it passes the forum. The 12z Euro is pretty dry after storm one, but the configuration of its trough would allow for precip. The EPS maintained continuity w cold. The control was especially cold. Good trends. Let’s see if they hold at 12z. Actually the GEPS and EPS have held for at least three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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