jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 12 Euro and GFS both did things that previous runs have not. The GFS took the AN heights that were the -EPO and took them over the top of NA. The 12z Euro is the only solution that I can find w that outcome...but I have thought for a few days that those big highs could potentially suppress some or all of that system. On to the next suite. The Euro did stick w being more progressive w the cutoff...still plays games with it though....it is possible that the entire system comes out in one or two pieces, even likely. A potential discussion as we get closer will be which piece of energy the models jump on ejecting from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 12 Euro and GFS both did things that previous runs have not. The GFS took the AN heights that were the -EPO and took them over the top of NA. The 12z Euro is the only solution that I can find w that outcome...but I have thought for a few days that those big highs could potentially suppress some or all of that system. On to the next suite. The Euro did stick w being more progressive w the cutoff...still plays games with it though....it is possible that the entire system comes out in one or two pieces, even likely. A potential discussion as we get closer will be which piece of energy the models jump on ejecting from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 12 Euro and GFS both did things that previous runs have not. The GFS took the AN heights that were the -EPO and took them over the top of NA. The 12z Euro is the only solution that I can find w that outcome...but I have thought for a few days that those big highs could potentially suppress some or all of that system. On to the next suite. The Euro did stick w being more progressive w the cutoff...still plays games with it though....it is possible that the entire system comes out in one or two pieces, even likely. A potential discussion as we get closer will be which piece of energy the models jump on ejecting from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Forum is acting squirrelly for me too; I'm not on tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The Euro Control is 1/2 to 1 inch along the Tn/Ky border areas around Christmas. It has another wave around December 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 12 Euro and GFS both did things that previous runs have not. The GFS took the AN heights that were the -EPO and took them over the top of NA. The 12z Euro is the only solution that I can find w that outcome...but I have thought for a few days that those big highs could potentially suppress some or all of that system. On to the next suite. The Euro did stick w being more progressive w the cutoff...still plays games with it though....it is possible that the entire system comes out in one or two pieces, even likely. A potential discussion as we get closer will be which piece of energy the models jump on ejecting from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Of the 50 ENS members of the Euro at 12z we have this. Big Snow Event Plateau West: M1, M4, M7, M22, M27, M33, M35, Big Snow Almost Valley Wide E to W: M9, ,M12, M13, M16, M17, M18, M25, M34 (40 and north), M38 (Mirror of 34), M39, M43, M44, M47, M49 (40 north), M50 Big Snow Far South (Miss, Alabama, GA): M10 Lighter Snow West: M46 Lighter Snow East Valley: M2, M5, M14, M23, M29, M30, M31, M37, M42 (Similar to OP), M48 Lighter Snow Almost Valley Wide: M3, M19, M20, M26, M32, M45, Very Little/Nothing Valley Wide: M6, M8, M11, M15, M21, M24 (Southern KY gets crushed), M28 (SWVA gets it), M36, M40, M41, 23/50 2+12 inches of snow in the region. 17/50 similar to OP or more snowy than the OP 1-3 inches basically. 10/50 similar to OP or less valley wide. So 40 of the 50 Euro Ens members were way snowier than the op, over a much bigger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 18z GFS. I will give it some marginal credit as it does resemble the CMC. JMA and Euro at 12z make much more sense than backing a trough under a -EPO ridge. The 12z EPS was stone cold after day 7.5. I ride w the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS. I will give it some marginal credit as it does resemble the CMC. JMA and Euro at 12z make much more sense than backing a trough under a -EPO ridge. The 12z EPS was stone cold after day 7.5. I ride w the Euro. I'm not educated enough to comment on what is going on right now, but my goodness I've never seen the GFS all over the place like it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 So basically...at d10 the 12z CMC has a trough in the West almost west of the Rockies. The 18z GFS is centered over the Rockies. The Euro is centered over eastern sections of the northern Plains. The JMA is centered over the Midwest. Zero consensus at this point...but I will not hitch my wagon to the GFS after that 18z run. Maybe it is right....but it likes to circle back to a run where the -EPO allows a trough to form under it. The 18z GFS does try to correct late in its run. Going to have to see it to believe it. The 18z GFS has a massive Bermuda high on Christmas Day. I refuse to believe that. It has nearly reversed positions of the toughs and ridges in the lower 48 since 18z yesterday. A broken clock is right twice per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 And the GFS may be right....but which run are we going to give it credit for being right? It has been terrible over the past 24 hours. It is swinging wildly. One of those runs may be right...it is just throwing ideas up to see which one sticks. The 12z JMA and Euro both weaken the trough that forms the cutoff. It allows it to be more progressive. The GFS strengthens it, and that may indeed be an actual trend. The UKMET at 12z strengthens it some. That sharpens the eastern ridge. But another trend is the EPS turning cold over the past two runs. Often when I go against the EPS I get burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The board has been down most of the afternoon...but the 12z GFS EPO ridge to Greenland right @ 210 was a red flag regarding that model. I ride w the Euro/EPS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The board has been down most of the afternoon...but the 12z GFS EPO ridge to Greenland right @ 210 was a red flag regarding that model. I ride w the Euro/EPS for now. Like you said, we've been dealt a bunch of options. Now it's just time to see which option starts to pan out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z GEPS, 12z EPS, 18z GEFS for comparison at 240. Ensembles tend to be better at this range, but still have a lot variability...just not as much as operational understandably. Edit: Switched all of them to 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Don't know if anyone read MRX's afternoon disco, but they really summarize it well."It must be emphasized that there continues to be poor agreement on the exact track and strength of the system next weekend as well as the exact position of the surface cold front. There is impactful differences between model solutions with poor run to run model consistency. Highlighting the uncertainty, even the GEFS ensembles have fairly large spread with a standard deviation for surface temperatures next Saturday around 10 deg F. In short, there is still a lot of uncertainty with how things will setup next weekend, but there is growing certainty and agreement for a pattern favorable for precipitation. However, it would still be irresponsible to speculate with any certainty on specific precip type or coverage next weekend through Christmas based on current modeling and ensemble solutions."Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Link to a better 500 graphic from Packerbacker. Click the dark gray line. Great minds think alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GEPS, 12z EPS, 18z GEFS for comparison at 240. Ensembles tend to be better at this range, but still have a lot variability...just not as much as operational understandably. Very true. Especially in this potential patterns. You look at the individual members, and some show torch, while others show cold. Someone in the Mid Atlantic forum said it best. The ensemble to put the most weight in is the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Did we let the same techs that developed the GFS update this board last night?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I have seen some chatter where the EPS is on its own. Really? Look at the 850 maps above. One is an outlier w the shape and placement of the SE ridge. Two models have cold pressing SE. It is possible the GEFS scores a coup....but that is what it would be, a coup. The 18z GEFS is an outlier w the placement of the SE ridge at 240. I suspect the GEPS might be a compromise. The EPS seemed a bit extreme w its cold, but it had previous runs as part of the trend including 0z. It was not a one hit wonder. The 18z GEFS seems extreme w the ridge. Somewhere in between seems about right. I ride w the Euro and EPS. Been burned too many times going against it...even when it is on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 You can't take one run and roll with it. Especially in times like this. It's like Carvers spoke about earlier, the GFS is almost bound to be right because it's shown nearly every solution. I posted earlier that the last 10 runs for December 23rd at 6pm had snow, ice, rain and dry heat here with a temp range from the 20s to the 60s. This was basically over a 60 hour period, 2.5 days and it ran the gamut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The euro just seems a little more consistent and it overall makes more sense at this point with the boundary and the SER. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Some interesting trends on the 0z NAM....proceed at your own risk since it is the NAM at long range. The pressures were less in the GOA than 18z. Both the Euro and JMA had "weaker" high pressure than the 12z CMC and GFS. The 0z NAM pressures were more in line than the progressive models. The energy approaching Seattle at 84 is in a similar spot(but north of the 12z GEM). The pressure south of the 0z NAM Seattle BN heights is also higher (than the models that dig southwest) which might imply there is less room to back into the southwest downstream. The energy is also slower by a nudge. Still some signs of slightly stronger heights over the US. The energy near Hawaii is less organized and interacts some with the approaching Seattle energy. Does this give us a hint to the 0z GFS? The weaker the GOA ridge implies the waves might be flatter. That energy needs a tall ridge to back under. The shorter and weaker the ridge...the tougher for a cutoff to stick in there and stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 At 102h, the 0z GFS looks to borrow some from the NAM - lower heights in the Pacific and the trough hasn't cut off yet like it had in previous runs at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Much different run if the 0z GFS compared to 18z. The trough in the southwest is gone. Who knows where it goes from here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1057 hp sitting over MT at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Cold air about to overwhelm the pattern in the eastern 2/3 of the country @192...Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 There will be some 30 degree temp changes to the colder compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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