IWXwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: Some snow? Sure. Will it pile up? Well it hasn't in awhile so maybe we'll get lucky this year. This area has been right on the rain snow line for cutters lately, usually on the wrong side. 20 30 miles can mean the difference between a thick blanket of white or one of slushy cold brown around here. It'll make ya psychotic! We see a lot of forecasts like the one for Muncie below, but hey, it does and will happen someday hopefully This Afternoon Partly sunny, with a high near 28. North wind around 7 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph after midnight. Friday A chance of flurries between 9am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. South southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Sunday A chance of snow before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8am and 10am, then rain likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Night A slight chance of rain before 8pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 8pm and 11pm, then a slight chance of snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Monday A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night A slight chance of rain and snow between 1am and 3am, then a slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday A slight chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. Lol. That's the typical winter forecast for around here for the past two (going into the third) winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: No guarantees, especially with individual systems, but I'm digging the upcoming period. Tick tock. I've been drooling at the EPS ensemble means for a few days now (of course, it could just be a medical condition). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I've been drooling at the EPS ensemble means for a few days now (of course, it could just be a medical condition). Yeah, you might want to get that checked out! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 18z GFS has a system for much of the sub north of about I-80 7 days from now. Something to watch as the GFS has slowly been trending southward and more potent with this system over the past few days. Not sure what the euro is doing, haven't really looked. But the 12z Euro had things north of about I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 From this afternoon's Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana... Either zonal or slightly amplified flow will remain in place much of the week allowing for above normal temperatures. Weak disturbances will pass through every once in a while to bring at least a chance of rain or snow, depending on the time of day. Towards the end of the period, deepening low pressure over the southern Plains will track towards the area and pose a potential problem for travelers late Thursday into Fri. Exact track remains uncertain with ECMWF keeping well NW of the area (all rain) and GFS tracking southeast of the area (Snow or snow/rain). Something that will be closely monitored in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: ouch this pattern is awful for the Greater Toronto Area heading into christmas holidays. The outdoor ice rinks are just starting up and now it looks like they are about to be washed away. Doesn't look like much more than a 3 day warmup to normal temps for this time of year so I wouldn't worry too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 00z Euro really digging for oil with the cutoff later in the run. Looks like the darn thing even retrogrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Be nice to have something to track as we head to the Holiday. Would love a flip ala 1987....or '93/94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro really digging for oil with the cutoff later in the run. Looks like the darn thing even retrogrades. Looks like the OP is 5-7 degrees warmer than the EPS in the 22-25th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12z GGEM ftw. Still alot of time and uncertainty, but the strength of the SE Ridge and trough placement is important for the Dec 20th-22nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The active pattern that had been present the past few days is all but gone on the 12z GFS. If that happens, we will finish with 0.1" in December. An absolute and utter waste of a month. The GEFS mean has also dropped down from 6" to a pathetic 2". past 18hr trends are terrible for the umpteenth time this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The active pattern that had been present the past few days is all but gone on the 12z GFS. If that happens, we will finish with 0.1" in December. An absolute and utter waste of a month. The GEFS mean has also dropped down from 6" to a pathetic 2". past 18hr trends are terrible for the umpteenth time this month. You've nailed it. You will recieve no further flakes this month. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Guest said: You've nailed it. You will recieve no further flakes this month. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 SE ridge will hose the subforum 3X more than it helps. I'm sitting here with 8 inches of snow and a little bit extra each day. Give me NW flow. SE ridge FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Jonger said: SE ridge will hose the subforum 3X more than it helps. I'm sitting here with 8 inches of snow and a little bit extra each day. Give me NW flow. SE ridge FTL. I'm pretty sure anybody outside of MI/lake belts (heck maybe even some people in MI) would gamble with some southeast ridging over the pattern we've had lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm pretty sure anybody outside of MI/lake belts (heck maybe even some people in MI) would gamble with some southeast ridging over the pattern we've had lol Ya, this pattern didn't help much of the heartland midwest. But for us in N.Ohio, MI,WNY, and ON this was a good pattern. The SE ridge is going to crush the far eastern side of this subform with rain and back to brown grass. It just sucks that this close to the christmas season and were looking at temperatures going into the mid 40s and rain right before christmas . My only hope now is that its SE ridge with no storms. That way northern parts of ON dont have a 3rd winter in a row of closed snowmobiling trails, weak ice, no ice fishing ect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 33 minutes ago, Jonger said: SE ridge will hose the subforum 3X more than it helps. I'm sitting here with 8 inches of snow and a little bit extra each day. Give me NW flow. SE ridge FTL. Might be FTL for you, but I'll bet the Iowa/llinois posters are saying FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 18 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya, this pattern didn't help much of the heartland midwest. But for us in N.Ohio, MI,WNY, and ON this was a good pattern. The SE ridge is going to crush the far eastern side of this subform with rain and back to brown grass. It just sucks that this close to the christmas season and were looking at temperatures going into the mid 40s and rain right before christmas . My only hope now is that its SE ridge with no storms. That way northern parts of ON dont have a 3rd winter in a row of closed snowmobiling trails, weak ice, no ice fishing ect.. Just like elf on the shelf, a pre-christmas meltdown is a new tradition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Might be FTL for you, but I'll bet the Iowa/llinois posters are saying FTW I would be very excited if I lived in the western part of this forum. I mentioned earlier how I would rather have 0 storms during this period to help the snowpack north of me, but if some storms do happen, a big dog that crushes the western part of the forum with 12+ inches of snow is always fun to track. Hopefully you guys get your big dog and then we go back to the cold NW flow of continuous clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: I would be very excited if I lived in the western part of this forum. I mentioned earlier how I would rather have 0 storms during this period to help the snowpack north of me, but if some storms do happen, a big dog that crushes the western part of the forum with 12+ inches of snow is always fun to track. Hopefully you guys get your big dog and then we go back to the cold NW flow of continuous clippers. I'd be okay with that. The euro has one moving thru next weekend, dropping a few inches. Then a big dog in the lower OV with both copious snow and ice. Although it may track further north, with a southeast ridge(especially one that flexes) it may end up cutting harder than it is currently on the euro. I'm not gonna buy into this pattern until the models show something decent inside 5 days, when this happens, then we can talk. Been a lot of systems progged outside of 7 days that fade away, seems like it's more so than usual this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'm pretty sure anybody outside of MI/lake belts (heck maybe even some people in MI) would gamble with some southeast ridging over the pattern we've had lol But... but... snowmobiling............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 In all seriousness, a SE ridge gives us the moisture for big time storms, we have been lucky that the 2 storms we have had here in Detroit area have overperformed on moisture, otherwise clippers usually don't do this. I will take my shot with bigger storms with some sort of SE ridge in place. The type of pattern that hoses Ohio and Pittsburgh but everyone else in the subforum cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: In all seriousness, a SE ridge gives us the moisture for big time storms, we have been lucky that the 2 storms we have had here in Detroit area have overperformed on moisture, otherwise clippers usually don't do this. I will take my shot with bigger storms with some sort of SE ridge in place. The type of pattern that hoses Ohio and Pittsburgh but everyone else in the subforum cashes in. Yep, though im not sold on MI yet, especially SE MI. About to enter a very boring pattern for the OH, PA, WNY and ON. Buffalos AFD mentions rain most of next week aside from mid week when a few snow squalls might form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, mississaugasnow said: Yep, though im not sold on MI yet, especially SE MI. About to enter a very boring pattern for the OH, PA, WNY and ON. Buffalos AFD mentions rain most of next week aside from mid week when a few snow squalls might form. I'd watch recent trends, there might be a chance of rain Sunday into Monday but beyond that I am not sold on rain, at least not that hard that I wouldn't mention snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfan40 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Here is hoping the latter of this forecast comes to fruition - the latest long range disco for SE MI. WOuld bode well for SW Ontario as well. Quote LONG TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A surface high pressure system will build in across the Ohio Valley late Tuesday and upper-level ridge building in across the Midwest on Wednesday will bring several days of dry weather as temperatures remain seasonal to slightly above seasonal for the midweek period. The next likely chance for widespread precipitation will then move in late Thursday into Friday as a low pressure system develops and pushes northeast from OK/MO. Slightly better convergence is now seen across the long range models regarding the placement of the low, with it settling just south of Michigan, over northern Ohio/Lake Erie by Friday afternoon. A warm front pushing through the state prior to the low, will bring the chance to see precipitation across the Central part of the state and across the thumb, throughout Thursday. A wintry mix to snow solutions will be the most likely solution for any precipitation seen on Thursday as surface temperatures sit at or slightly above freezing, with temperatures at 925 and 850 mb ranging between -2 to -5 C. The more likely chance for precipitation will enter late Thursday into Friday morning as the low pressure system approaches the state. With new model runs trending cooler, a snow solution is looking more likely for this event, however, additional models runs and convergence will be needed to increase confidence regarding the timing, placement, and strength of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 18z GFS could be a mixy mess if that southwest cutoff ever ejects. Takes so long that the northern stream is starting to relax a bit by day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I've been watching the CMC Precip Type runs over the past few weeks. It seems to be doing well from run to run. Will see how this Sunday pans out, for its been showing a wet snow solution for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 LOT and surrounding offices much more optimistic on a potential snow event as we transition back to cold later this week. Quite a turn based on some the more downtrodden dialogue around here. Great write up by RC today. Better yet, turn jives with some of his pattern analysis posted from a few weeks back as we entered the NW flow regime. Be nice to see a series of SW lows ride along the periphery of an arctic air mass with plenty of warmth and moisture to feed it. It's been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z GFS showing a decent storm for the south and east parts of the sub on and after Christmas. Ice/mix along the OH river and moderate snow event along I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 It is nice to see the long anticipated changes getting a bit closer. One thing I would like to see is the Christmas-ish storm have something more like the GFS timing. The GGEM is slower (and farther north). Hopefully it can work out so that these upcoming systems lay a blanket of snow across the entire region without any gaps, but it doesn't always work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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