Hoosier Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, Jonger said: Andy lives in Vancouver, he has no vested interest in our weather. Second, that look for January isn't happening. That was a warmers troll post. Why couldn't we see a dominant western trough/eastern ridge pattern for January? Seems possible to me especially IF there's a lack of blocking. Such a pattern wouldn't necessarily be a death sentence for everyone as long as the ridge is held somewhat in check, but would definitely be playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Anyway, some entertainment on the long range GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Why couldn't we see a dominant western trough/eastern ridge pattern for January? Seems possible to me especially IF there's a lack of blocking. Such a pattern wouldn't necessarily be a death sentence for everyone as long as the ridge is held somewhat in check, but would definitely be playing with fire. Because snowmobiling, signed Jonger. In all seriousness though longer range projections like what IWX posted above are starting to hint at a southeast ridge showing up finally which is a very common theme in Nina winters. As you mentioned though it isn't a kiss of death by any means as some of the most significant storms to hit this region in Nina winters have had the southeast ridge in place to block the system from going up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Anyway, some entertainment on the long range GFS. Awful early but could be another "Grinch" storm around X-Mas. Regardless looks pretty active, and Stebo is correct, SE ridge is very common for La-Nina winters and also paves the way for some big dogs as well. That also comes with the chance with some torch rain soakers as well, is what it is cant control it so why stress. I know putting out maps over 200 hrs is really pointless but is something to look forward on the models for consistency sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 37 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Awful early but could be another "Grinch" storm around X-Mas. Regardless looks pretty active, and Stebo is correct, SE ridge is very common for La-Nina winters and also paves the way for some big dogs as well. That also comes with the chance with some torch rain soakers as well, is what it is cant control it so why stress. I know putting out maps over 200 hrs is really pointless but is something to look forward on the models for consistency sake. This would/could be some good "system" snow for areas north of Bay City in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 A system such as the one depicted by the GFS in that timeframe makes sense when comparing it to the EPS output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: A system such as the one depicted by the GFS in that timeframe makes sense when comparing it to the EPS output. Yep, there is a consensus at this point there, even with it being a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The 0z & 12zs GFS runs over the past couple of days have been unsusually inconsistent, its like the have backed out some of the upper level steering data for some reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 hours ago, Jonger said: Andy lives in Vancouver, he has no vested interest in our weather. Second, that look for January isn't happening. That was a warmers troll post. lol this again I have vested interest in severe weather obviously, oh and a good blizzard every now and then...which you won't get in the current regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The guy threw out a Jan 06 analog. January 2006 was the definition of "Dumpster fire". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 33 minutes ago, Jonger said: The guy threw out a Jan 06 analog. January 2006 was the definition of "Dumpster fire". So it must be immediately ignored right? What is your basis for this, and don't give me the CFS and nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: The guy threw out a Jan 06 analog. January 2006 was the definition of "Dumpster fire". 05-06 has been a popular analog in a lot of winter forecasts, but you haven't been paying attention of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 18z GFS continues the theme of a moisture laden system around Christmas, big time snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I agree that Jan 2006 waa a dumpster fire but that was the most extreme analog in that post. A milder than normal Jan isn't necessarily bad in the north. Definitely pass on a torch tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I agree that Jan 2006 waa a dumpster fire but that was the most extreme analog in that post. A milder than normal Jan isn't necessarily bad in the north. Definitely pass on a torch tho Wasn’t there a big rain to snow event in early February in 2006? I think I remember getting nearly a foot in that storm. I thought Detroit got snow too because I think that was the year the Super Bowl was played in Detroit and there was all sorts of hype about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Stebo said: 18z GFS continues the theme of a moisture laden system around Christmas, big time snows. This......we all know the caveats regarding GFS long term prospects. Having said that, if GFS maintains consistency with storms approaching from the sw rather than our current clipper pattern the Christmas weekend will certainly be interesting. I am hoping to drive Christmas morning to nw IN from the Indpls area but may have to change plans even though I know timing is not certain this far out.....but consistency of a storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 That is one heck of a GEFS mean. Snow DEPTH too. Period after day 8 or so may get active, I sure hope. I need some compensation from ol' mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: That is one heck of a GEFS mean. Snow DEPTH too. Period after day 8 or so may get active, I sure hope. I need some compensation from ol' mother nature. Considering the Dakotas and Nebraska are basically bare right now, that is a massive signal that the pattern is going to flip away from NW flow to a W or SW flow but still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Stebo said: 18z GFS continues the theme of a moisture laden system around Christmas, big time snows. Yea 3 hay-makers back to back to back, would make for a fun X-Mas and New Years week for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 10 hours ago, roardog said: Wasn’t there a big rain to snow event in early February in 2006? I think I remember getting nearly a foot in that storm. I thought Detroit got snow too because I think that was the year the Super Bowl was played in Detroit and there was all sorts of hype about the storm. We got a few inches with that superbowl storm but nothing major. I mean it is Michigan, even dumpster fires have SOME snow lol. But I do not care to repeat that Jan-Mar 2006. Thanksgiving to Christmas had numerous snowstorms and the rest of winter sucked. But we are getting off track, as I have seen NOTHING suggest that Jan 2018 will be a torch. As others have mentioned, La Nina winters typically are more up and down anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: We got a few inches with that superbowl storm but nothing major. I mean it is Michigan, even dumpster fires have SOME snow lol. But I do not care to repeat that Jan-Mar 2006. Thanksgiving to Christmas had numerous snowstorms and the rest of winter sucked. But we are getting off track, as I have seen NOTHING suggest that Jan 2018 will be a torch. As others have mentioned, La Nina winters typically are more up and down anyway. So kind of like last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 54 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: So kind of like last winter? Actually yes similar. But Dec 2005 was snowier than Dec 2016 and Jan-Mar 2006 was much LESS snowy than Jan-Mar 2017. Overall 2016-17 was the better winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Euro ensembles continue to screw Jew and tattoo anyone south of I-80, through the 27th. If we record no snow the rest of the month, will be the 3rd time we have recorded a T in the last 4 years, for the entire month of December. Not liking this pattern at all. Wet and warm, cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Big bertha lurking out west on the 12z Euro day 10 with what would probably lead to a significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 52 minutes ago, Chambana said: Euro ensembles continue to screw Jew and tattoo anyone south of I-80, through the 27th. If we record no snow the rest of the month, will be the 3rd time we have recorded a T in the last 4 years, for the entire month of December. Not liking this pattern at all. Wet and warm, cold and dry. You seem to be sitting just to the SW of the storm track. I read this post and started panicking before I realized how sensitive it is to where you live in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Big bertha lurking out west on the 12z Euro day 10 with what would probably lead to a significant winter storm.The 12z Euro ensemble mean at around that time is not a bad look. Some decent to significant individual members too. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: You seem to be sitting just to the SW of the storm track. I read this post and started panicking before I realized how sensitive it is to where you live in the subforum. The lakes are going to cash in. And I’m sure michsnowfreak as well, he’s had the hot hand the last few years. I hate complaining I really do, but man these last few winters I even include 2014-2015 despite the frigid February, have been awful. Enjoy the clipper tonight guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 45 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Looks like a more RNAish pattern starting on the 17th for around a week. Maybe the ducks come together after that, but I am getting sick of "potential" as buckeye would say. Unfortunately this doesn't look like an Ohio pattern, more of a rest of the subforum pattern. At least at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Angrysummons said: What else is new You guys will probably cash in deeper into winter, it is still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I don't know. neither the GFS nor the Canadian Ensembles have the trough hanging back that far to the west at day 10. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro is keeping too much trough out west. It does that sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.