hlcater Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: You are absolutely right, but after the past two winters, I'm ready to roll the dice on a chance at the big dog. I'd love to roll the dice, except out here, our odds are better than yours I'd say. The odds we end up on the cold side of a SW system are much higher than NE IN. What would really be nice is an E-W CO low. Although, we trade our odds at slightly lower clipper chances. But like you, I'll take almost anything other than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: I'd love to roll the dice, except out here, our odds are better than yours I'd say. The odds we end up on the cold side of a SW system are much higher than NE IN. What would really be nice is an E-W CO low. Although, we trade our odds at slightly lower clipper chances. But like you, I'll take almost anything other than this. Yep, your chances are a lot better than mine on being on the right side of a cutter. A spread the wealth bowling ball would be nice, but that's not happening with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: You are absolutely right, but after the past two winters, I'm ready to roll the dice on a chance at the big dog. Ha! So much for my clipper wishcast, IND just threw rain in the mix for Monday lol! IWX calls for snow showers. Being a mile south, pretty much right on the line between the 2 AFD's let the "I'll pick the one I want" days of winter begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Excited for the persistant trough to relax... but feel with that would come 35-50° maxes with heavy rain and thunder and a dusting after Fropa followed by a week of cold/dry conditions. But it does open the door for some possible GHD 1 & 2 type of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 12 hours ago, Jonger said: I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range. At least without looking all over the dark web for content. This is what your reliable model is showing. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 hours ago, cmillzz said: This is what your reliable model is showing. Merry Christmas! Oh good, ill be coming home from the Bahamas at that time. At least I won't have to worry about that annoying "shock to the system," cold when I get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 And the 6z is about 50 degrees colder at that same timeframe as depicted above. Why are we discussing 300+ he gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: And the 6z is about 50 degrees colder at that same timeframe as depicted above. Why are we discussing 300+ he gfs lol See title of thread...if not models then what? Crystal balls and tarot cards? Yea, I know sometimes there's not much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, buckeye said: See title of thread...if not models then what? Crystal balls and tarot cards? Yea, I know sometimes there's not much difference. Honestly...i think ensembles are ok for 2 weeks out but id rather use a tarot card than an op model for a day 15 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 hours ago, buckeye said: Oh good, ill be coming home from the Bahamas at that time. At least I won't have to worry about that annoying "shock to the system," cold when I get back. Would mean mid 60’s around most of the sub. It was mid 60’s a week ago - history will repeat itself... maybe just in time for Christmas haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The New Norm: First half of December is "first taste of winter"... then Indian Summer #2 just in time for Christmas...half of January is winter...January thaw...then we work towards spring. That's my depressing post for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: And the 6z is about 50 degrees colder at that same timeframe as depicted above. Why are we discussing 300+ he gfs lol Because Jonger said he doesn't even look at the Euro, only the GFS. That was a proof that the GFS is subject to wild run to run changes, more so than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Seems like many of the models are trying to bring back a trough to the Great Lakes/Northeast after the relaxation next week. Definitely a much less deep trough...which may open the door for more opportunities around Holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 12 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Excited for the persistant trough to relax... but feel with that would come 35-50° maxes with heavy rain and thunder and a dusting after Fropa followed by a week of cold/dry conditions. But it does open the door for some possible GHD 1 & 2 type of action. Now don't set the bar so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 7 hours ago, Stebo said: Because Jonger said he doesn't even look at the Euro, only the GFS. That was a proof that the GFS is subject to wild run to run changes, more so than the Euro. Lol any long range model is terrible for details, but even so, when did euro take a backseat to gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Lol any long range model is terrible for details, but even so, when did euro take a backseat to gfs. Ask Jonger, he is the one that made that very inaccurate proclamation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Lol any long range model is terrible for details, but even so, when did euro take a backseat to gfs. It took a back seat for Jon when I posted this just to troll cmillzz On 12/8/2017 at 0:06 PM, IWXwx said: Paging cmillzz..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 TBH, I'm not seeing any sort of trend that shies away from this northern stream dominance. In which case its gonna take another massive trough to push it further south, and if its anything like this current trough that did just that, people west of the lakes shouldn't expect much, if at all. However if we don't get this scenario, the next most likely is just ripping zonal flow over the US/CAN border, in which case, can we at least have a big warm sector party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: TBH, I'm not seeing any sort of trend that shies away from this northern stream dominance. In which case its gonna take another massive trough to push it further south, and if its anything like this current trough that did just that, people west of the lakes shouldn't expect much, if at all. However if we don't get this scenario, the next most likely is just ripping zonal flow over the US/CAN border, in which case, can we at least have a big warm sector party? I'm usually a fan of these clipper type patterns, but this one has been pretty disappointing for areas west of the lakes. Hopefully the last 1/3 of Dec throws us westerners a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 44 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I'm usually a fan of these clipper type patterns, but this one has been pretty disappointing for areas west of the lakes. Hopefully the last 1/3 of Dec throws us westerners a bone. Agree.. would be nice for something to set up over the Rockies with pacific energy and push west. A nice spread-the-wealth event is hard to come by in this pattern. Several clippers still on the horizon so hopefully everyone in the sub can get a DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Would be nice to get a GHD storm. Hope we don't have to wait till then for the pattern to change to get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Oh I'll take this analog set and run into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Some big storms in that analog set in January/February/March in the east or midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 CFS monthly has January well below normal temp-wise. Not sure what Ben Noll is talking about. Its been trending colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jonger said: CFS monthly has January well below normal temp-wise. Not sure what Ben Noll is talking about. Its been trending colder and colder. CFS monthly doesn't = the Euro weeklies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: CFS monthly doesn't = the Euro weeklies... shhhh Jonger doesn't believe in the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: shhhh Jonger doesn't believe in the euro. yeah he definitely needs to be shamed for that one, I mean it isn't etched in stone but it is by far the closest to the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 EPS 1st call for Christmas Day (Jonger, move along, nothing to see here): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 16 hours ago, andyhb said: Oh I'll take this analog set and run into spring. This would be most excellent for spring severe wx. Winter wx not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: This would be most excellent for spring severe wx. Winter wx not so much Andy lives in Vancouver, he has no vested interest in our weather. Second, that look for January isn't happening. That was a warmers troll post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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