Jonger Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Hopefully we can snag a white Christmas. Its been a couple years of crap recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman_69 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Yes it has been... I moved back from Louisiana just last January and I wanted to see snow so bad, but after we got back up here in Iowa, we did not have any at all for the rest of the year.. That really sucked too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I am a little more interested in that Friday-Saturday clipper threat now. GFS holding steady and Euro/ensembles also with some hints. It will be moisture-starved as every clipper is, but both models today really drop in a very potent vort max with it (with origins straight from the pole) and it could be a dynamic little system. Still a ton of time to evaluate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, OHweather said: I am a little more interested in that Friday-Saturday clipper threat now. GFS holding steady and Euro/ensembles also with some hints. It will be moisture-starved as every clipper is, but both models today really drop in a very potent vort max with it (with origins straight from the pole) and it could be a dynamic little system. Still a ton of time to evaluate though. Agree. I've been thinking overperformer since yesterday, at least in a narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Agree. I've been thinking overperformer since yesterday, at least in a narrow band. Usual caveats apply with it being 6 days out, with the energy not yet really sampled and needing the ridge out west to be amped enough. Interestingly enough, tracing back the energy on the GFS, it appears that the little vort max/tropopause fold responsible for the potential clipper (more of a Manitoba Mauler) is spinning around near the northern coast of Greenland at the moment. It gradually gets caught up in the developing trough over the eastern half of Canada and then shoots south Thursday on the backside of the very amped west coast ridge. If such a dynamic system verifies though someone will likely get more than the typical 1-3" a clipper drrops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Jonger said: Hopefully we can snag a white Christmas. Its been a couple years of crap recently. We had a white Christmas last year. It was a murky ugly day but there was solid snowpack in place lol. It's been a few years since we saw a "scenic" white Christmas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 00z GFS looks interesting with the late week system. It's almost like a double clipper setup as there's some initial energy that moves in followed by much more diving in from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z GFS looks interesting with the late week system. It's almost like a double clipper setup as there's some initial energy that moves in followed by much more diving in from Canada. That could be an epic LES band off of southern Lake Michigan too, which this run of the GFS is hinting at. Full fetch down the lake with an upstream connection to Superior and the inversion height is like 20,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That could be an epic LES band off of southern Lake Michigan too, which this run of the GFS is hinting at. Full fetch down the lake with an upstream connection to Superior and the inversion height is like 20,000 feet. Yeah, that sounding has steep lapse rates and is saturated up to the tropopause at around 450mb. Probably a bit of snow if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 An interesting read for the winter season for the Ohio Valley and southern parts of our sub forum. http://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/2017/10/winter-forecast-2017-18.html?clienttype=generic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 The clipper for Friday/Saturday looking like a 1-3 incher for most in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Interesting, they look to be going with a 2007-8 analog, but I don't know. Alot of 67-68 showing up in the pattern. Both of those winters featured significant upper Midwest tornado outbreaks in January, and both portended an active spring season for the region as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Both of those winters featured significant upper Midwest tornado outbreaks in January, and both portended an active spring season for the region as well. That was the winter before that had the significant outbreak in January. December 1967 had some significant severe weather though, but the pattern going forward this month looks just a bit hostile for severe weather in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Probably too early to get worried about next year's severe season, but I can't say that massive west coast ridge for the next 2+ weeks is giving me a fuzzy feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Somewhat hopeful signs on the ensembles in the long range (day 11-15). Through next week, the western ridge axis looks to be set up too far east to likely preclude anything other than light to moderate clippers and obviously LES. The following week, all the ensembles are showing higher heights in the south while poleward ridging to Alaska and north continues. This could open the door to a more active pattern if it happens, particularly if the western ridge can retrograde off the coast.On recent runs of the ensembles, the GEFS has been showing this ridge retrogression, even trending to a lower PNA as southeast ridging builds. The other ensembles (EPS, GEPS) still keep the western ridging farther east than we'd like, but if the eastern trough does indeed relax some as they're showing in the means, that could set up a more favorable pattern for stronger/more moist clippers/hybrids. Would like to see the GEFS hold onto its look and the EPS and GEPS trend toward it over the next few days. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Ricky, I hope you're right about the ensembles, because through day ten, the Euro just keep dumping buckets of cold air on us with no chance of any moisture laden storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 hours ago, IWXwx said: Ricky, I hope you're right about the ensembles, because through day ten, the Euro just keep dumping buckets of cold air on us with no chance of any moisture laden storms. GFS seems to agree. At least the OP had a decent system around the solstice before another big cold dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18 hours ago, IWXwx said: Ricky, I hope you're right about the ensembles, because through day ten, the Euro just keep dumping buckets of cold air on us with no chance of any moisture laden storms. Not overally optimistic about the pattern over the next 10 days. Only real threat at this point are strung out, moisture starved clippers that may at best deliver 2-3" locally. Until we see the trough shift a bit further west and allow some small ridging to form in the SE, its going to be hard to get any sort of phasing or storms in the area. I do expect a more typical Nina like pattern to return beyond Christmas, as the MJO wave dies down. But let's see. As always, it's the NE benefiting again from this pattern again, ugh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Don't tell me you actually watched the post 240 hour GFS? I don't even go beyond 144 hrs due to poor verification, but after this post, I had to go watch the evolution............... Not saying I buy it just that at least it's selling something around the time when the pattern becomes a bit more zonal. More interested in the Tuesday system which has been evolving a bit more favourably at least for eastern parts of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Paging cmillzz..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range. At least without looking all over the dark web for content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 28 minutes ago, Jonger said: I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range. At least without looking all over the dark web for content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 35 minutes ago, Jonger said: I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range. At least without looking all over the dark web for content. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range. At least without looking all over the dark web for content. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range. At least without looking all over the dark web for content. Here http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php The amount of fields is somewhat limited, but better than nothing. This one has more: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/temperatur-f.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Yeah, it was a LES pattern for sure. Looks like the ridge will breakdown after the 15th. Here is to some synoptic events the 2nd half of December. Yep, it seems likely that we will lose the persistent deep eastern trough. That does bring some mild risks but it would open the door to better systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Jonger said: I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range. At least without looking all over the dark web for content. Yeah don't use the model that statistically is more correct consistently, you'd rather enjoy being lied to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 "Yep, it seems likely that we will lose the persistent deep eastern trough. That does bring some mild risks but it would open the door to better systems. " Down in these parts I'll take clippers over over SW swingers, especially in Dec. We run into to many white knuckle mixing issues, especially the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah don't use the model that statistically is more correct consistently, you'd rather enjoy being lied to. Haha, I was thinking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Jackstraw said: "Yep, it seems likely that we will lose the persistent deep eastern trough. That does bring some mild risks but it would open the door to better systems. " Down in these parts I'll take clippers over over SW swingers, especially in Dec. We run into to many white knuckle mixing issues, especially the last few winters. You are absolutely right, but after the past two winters, I'm ready to roll the dice on a chance at the big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.