Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

To be fair, I mean it could be based on a number of factors. The PDO shifted from cold to warm ~1978 and all of sudden by 1980-onward we saw an influx of warm and snow-less winters. In Toronto we saw a decrease in the decadal mean in the 1980's, increase in the 1990's and more or less average in 2000's. It's only since 2010 we saw these crap winters (2011-12, 2015-2018). And mind you, since Jan 2014 the PDO has been (+) and we've seen three useless winters since then. The warm Atlantic could also play a role (as soon as the AMO shifted) which has caused an increase in coastal storms in recent years leaving many of those areas around Kentucky high and dry. But I can't deny the fact that we've seen an increase in more crappy winters of late to a point where we can't even get a decent storm, i.e. 2011-12, 2015-16, 2016-17 and now this year. As well, we've seen a marginal decrease in November and March snow, to a point where it feels like winters are getting shorter. 

We'll see how the next decade fares before jumping to any conclusions. 

The east surprisingly shows a decrease in snow outside a few specs on the coast.

[hawkeye_wx]

I've been wondering if the warming climate might be shifting the avg snowfall numbers northward, so what used to be avg for Kirksville may be the new avg for Ottumwa and what used to be avg for Ottumwa may be the new avg for Cedar Rapids.  We still get solid clippers, but the bigger systems coming out of the Rockies all seem to cut right over us.  Colorado lows are plentiful, but the Texas panhandle lows that we need have become an endangered species.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

14 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

UHI has had some effect on our snow. And I'd say it's more than "very little". But I'd suggest AGW is the bigger culprit.

And, yet, some say that AGW could be leading to an increase in snowfall.  Regardless, it's not catastrophic. There are many people (not me) who would see a less snowy climate as a positive thing.

[luckyweather]

And, yet, some say that AGW could be leading to an increase in snowfall.  Regardless, it's not catastrophic. There are many people (not me) who would see a less snowy climate as a positive thing.

I think it doesn’t matter a whole heck of a lot what people think - what matters are the impacts it’s having on the local and regional ecosystems. I grew up in Central MO, moved to northern IL in 2002. As a youth I had never seen an armadillo. Now central MO is infested with them as they continue their slow movement north. Whether it’s the climate, continued and expanded development and population, or both - one thing is clear - the balance is shifting, and rapidly. Whether or not people like cold or warm really is irrelevant - it’s happening regardless. Maybe it’s been happening forever - maybe it’s climate change - either way - human opinion doesn’t have a lot of sway, IMO :-)

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/16/2018 at 7:59 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said:

And, yet, some say that AGW could be leading to an increase in snowfall.  Regardless, it's not catastrophic. There are many people (not me) who would see a less snowy climate as a positive thing.

Well in some areas it IS increasing.  This winter it's turned into somewhat of a joke when southeast MI repeatedly got snow others missed out on, but in the big picture snow is definitely increasing here and I do not believe it is isolated to lake belts and Southeast Michigan. Obviously I need to do research to back my assumption up, but I seem to remember a few years ago when most of this subform was getting lots of snow. I just wonder if those who've suffered a string of subpar winters are having a case of short term memory, which is very common for many weather weenies. There is support for Toronto seeing less snow but just like Detroit seeing more, that is just one area. Regardless I'm sure the general public wouldn't notice minor changes. If you live in Toronto and hate snow, getting 45" instead of 50" will be no coveted consolation prize lol. 

[Hoosier]

Sort of interesting looking system being shown next weekend... acts sort of like a bowling ball except the upper levels aren't that impressive.   Anyway, winter opportunities are dwindling for most of the region so you never know how many more trackable threats there will be.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sort of interesting looking system being shown next weekend... acts sort of like a bowling ball except the upper levels aren't that impressive.   Anyway, winter opportunities are dwindling for most of the region so you never know how many more trackable threats there will be.

Looks very interesting and gfs gem and euro all show it (those are the only 3 models I check, not sure if it has unanimous support in modelland). The problem is the models have so much trouble that it's way too early to get excited. Definitely bares watching. After the deluge of rain and heavy snow on the 1st, it's been a very dry month here with just occasional snow showers and flurries.

[Hoosier]

12z Euro nails Chicago next weekend.

[Malacka11]

That'd be a nice surprise.

[Thundersnow12]

Joe says rainer and obviously won't happen 

[Hoosier]

48 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Joe says rainer and obviously won't happen 

Can't tell if you're serious or joking lol

Could easily end up being a rainer but it's close enough to keep the interest for northern IL.  

[cyclone77]

On 3/14/2018 at 1:49 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro is pretty frisky with the Monday-Wednesday system barreling through the region.

 

Bumped for lol-ness.  At the time this was a decent ways out in time, but overall the model guidance this season has been shockingly awful.  Not sure why model performance has retrograded to levels not seen since before the internet became widely available, but it's been very frustrating for all of us.  In a way it sort of makes things more exciting, as you never really feel that you know what's going to happen until it's happening, sort of like life before model watching.  The fun is sort of taken out of it though when 99% of the time things trend towards whatever is the most lame solution being depicted in the model suite.

[King James]

Bumped for lol-ness.  At the time this was a decent ways out in time, but overall the model guidance this season has been shockingly awful.  Not sure why model performance has retrograded to levels not seen since before the internet became widely available, but it's been very frustrating for all of us.  In a way it sort of makes things more exciting, as you never really feel that you know what's going to happen until it's happening, sort of like life before model watching.  The fun is sort of taken out of it though when 99% of the time things trend towards whatever is the most lame solution being depicted in the model suite.

I’ll bring this to the banter thread but I am interested in this sub’s thoughts on pole shifts and its affect on the weather


.

[beavis1729]

Today's 12z CMC shows sub-500 dm thicknesses in northern MN in early April. 

I don't think I've ever seen that on a model prog for April before...

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Today's 12z CMC shows sub-500 dm thicknesses in northern MN in early April. 

I don't think I've ever seen that on a model prog for April before...

April 1982 had some impressive cold but I don't know if thicknesses got that low.

Speaking more locally, I would not be surprised if we haven't seen our last sticking snow yet.  Whatever the baseline is, the upcoming pattern looks like one that would have a greater chance than usual at producing something.  

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the latest runs of the GFS don't seem to be hinting at a cold snap for the first week of April anymore. 

[pondo1000]

2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the latest runs of the GFS don't seem to be hinting at a cold snap for the first week of April anymore. 

The GFS (and other models quite frankly) haven’t done all that well w/ hinting at long range in regards to pattern. They seem to always be playing catch-up. They tried to break down the block a couple of times in the long range during this month. Who knows though. 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the latest runs of the GFS don't seem to be hinting at a cold snap for the first week of April anymore. 

The ensembles sure are hinting at cold.

[Hoosier]

On 3/23/2018 at 4:16 PM, Hoosier said:

April 1982 had some impressive cold but I don't know if thicknesses got that low.

Speaking more locally, I would not be surprised if we haven't seen our last sticking snow yet.  Whatever the baseline is, the upcoming pattern looks like one that would have a greater chance than usual at producing something.  

Hey beavis, I ran the Chicago snow numbers just for you.    Turns out that almost exactly half of years have had measurable snow in Chicago from April 1 onward.  Given the upcoming pattern (mostly colder than average and fairly active), I'd give it a good 75% chance of there being another measurable snow.  

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I've been reading on another forum about a potential snow threat around April 3rd. 

[Malacka11]

1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I've been reading on another forum about a potential snow threat around April 3rd. 

What forum?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

What forum?

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33576

 

Accuweather forums.

[Malacka11]

55 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33576

 

Accuweather forums.

Thanks a bunch man

[beavis1729]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hey beavis, I ran the Chicago snow numbers just for you.    Turns out that almost exactly half of years have had measurable snow in Chicago from April 1 onward.  Given the upcoming pattern (mostly colder than average and fairly active), I'd give it a good 75% chance of there being another measurable snow.  

Thanks Hoosier. 

For more meaningful snow (say at least 1” for the month), I imagine the number is around 30%. 

Would be fun to see 1982 walk through the door. 

I agree with your assessment on the pattern over the next couple of weeks. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Thanks Hoosier. 

For more meaningful snow (say at least 1” for the month), I imagine the number is around 30%. 

Would be fun to see 1982 walk through the door. 

I agree with your assessment on the pattern over the next couple of weeks. 

I have to make a little correction to my earlier post.  I had the number of years for precip records in mind and not snowfall, as snowfall records only go back to 1884-85.  It's more like 55% of years that have had measurable snow April 1 or later.

As far as what you mentioned, Chicago has had at least 1" of snow in 38 Aprils and 2 Mays.  One year (1907) had >1" in BOTH April and May.

[OHweather]

It looks like trackable snow threats will continue straight into the first half of April this year north of the Ohio River.  Impressive -EPO and -NAO induced cold shot later this week lingering through at least the first 10 days of the month.  Some signal for potentially decent snow as the cold really moves in around April 3-6th.  The 12z Euro was rather amusing with a high-ratio snow for parts of the region April 4th-5th with temps in the 10s/20s where it's snowing.  

[pondo1000]

12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It looks like trackable snow threats will continue straight into the first half of April this year north of the Ohio River.  Impressive -EPO and -NAO induced cold shot later this week lingering through at least the first 10 days of the month.  Some signal for potentially decent snow as the cold really moves in around April 3-6th.  The 12z Euro was rather amusing with a high-ratio snow for parts of the region April 4th-5th with temps in the 10s/20s where it's snowing.  

Wow! That would be impressive! Crazy stuff! It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out. I’d take a foot or more of cement, build a snowman w/ the kids, then watch it melt in a day or two. Then, I’d be all set for a major warm up. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

It looks like trackable snow threats will continue straight into the first half of April this year north of the Ohio River.  Impressive -EPO and -NAO induced cold shot later this week lingering through at least the first 10 days of the month.  Some signal for potentially decent snow as the cold really moves in around April 3-6th.  The 12z Euro was rather amusing with a high-ratio snow for parts of the region April 4th-5th with temps in the 10s/20s where it's snowing.  

There's some pretty impressive cold even during the middle of the day on that Euro run.  It's snowing in WI and into northern IL at this valid time of 1 pm central with temps well down into the 20s and even teens farther north.