Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[snowlover2]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z GEM is kind of funny out around day 8-9.

0z GFS was relatively similar.

[GreenBo]

5 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

0z GFS was relatively similar.

[snowlover2]

12z GFS looked really similar to the 0z GGEM regarding the March 11-12 storm while the 12z GGEM was kicked too far south. There is also a system around the 9-10th to possibly keep an eye on for the southern sub.

[Hoosier]

You can really tell it's a transition season by looking at the modeled pattern/storms.

[snowlover2]

12z Euro didn't have much cold sector precip until its east of here into the northeast. Still a week away and will change several times.

[GreenBo]

On 3/4/2018 at 12:22 PM, Hoosier said:

You can really tell it's a transition season by looking at the modeled pattern/storms.

Yep, ridges are trying to pop and the streams are scooting north. Winter is getting the *^%t kicked out of it. Bring on the i80 stalling warm fronts and tulips. 

[Malacka11]

So... Any ideas on the possibly wintry system from March 18th through the 20th?

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro is pretty frisky with the Monday-Wednesday system barreling through the region.

 

[pondo1000]

25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro is pretty frisky with the Monday-Wednesday system barreling through the region.

 

Love the Ohio “snowhole”! That is hilarious! 

[mimillman]

Canadian looked similar to the Euro

[Malacka11]

Just now, mimillman said:

Canadian looked similar to the Euro

GFS is farther south correct?

[Frog Town]

7 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Canadian looked similar to the Euro

Accept the NW Oh is now weenie zone

[RCNYILWX]

If the snow maps are not your thing, here's liquid equivalent accumulated as snow from the Euro, centered on IL.



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[cyclone77]

^QC bullseye? Toss.  

[snowstormcanuck]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

^QC bullseye? Toss.  

And check out the Wyandotte screw-pass. Zero chance.

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

And check out the Wyandotte screw-pass. Zero chance.

Yeah expect modifications to the current forecast.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro is pretty frisky with the Monday-Wednesday system barreling through the region.

 

This I would like. New England is hogging all of the snow! If this were to verify (I don't expect it to - the Euro has been horrible this winter) I would be happy and ready to move on. lol JB is drawing paralells to the April 2-3, 1975 storm, albeit with a further south track.

[vpbob21]

7 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Love the Ohio “snowhole”! That is hilarious! 

Hey, at least you get a couple inches.  I'm up there in the donut hole by Lake Erie that gets zip.  It is hilarious, the whole I-80 corridor from Iowa to New Jersey gets crushed, except for Ohio.  I'm ready to move on from this winter and bring on severe season.

[cyclone77]

00z Euro takes all the snow from Iowa and Illinois and gives it to southern/southeast MI.  Now THAT's a solution to believe in.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

00z Euro takes all the snow from Iowa and Illinois and gives it to southern/southeast MI.  Now THAT's a solution to believe in.

I have a feeling the models will handle this entire event terribly, as they have with many this year.

[Snowstorms]

Quite the interesting graphic I found online; 

Also interesting to see that small blue dot in SEMI right near Detroit . Per the graphic, we can see a small change in snowfall across a vast area of the Great lakes, minus those areas downwind of the lakes due to an increase in LES. Places like Missouri, Kentucky and Southern Ohio have seen the greatest change. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Quite the interesting graphic I found online; 

Also interesting to see that small blue dot in SEMI right near Detroit . Per the graphic, we can see a small change in snowfall across a vast area of the Great lakes, minus those areas downwind of the lakes due to an increase in LES. Places like Missouri, Kentucky and Southern Ohio have seen the greatest change. 

That graphic screams global warming. The more south you go the more marginal the cold air is. A difference in just a few degrees makes a huge difference for that southern line. That line will be moving farther north every decade. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Quite the interesting graphic I found online; 

Also interesting to see that small blue dot in SEMI right near Detroit . Per the graphic, we can see a small change in snowfall across a vast area of the Great lakes, minus those areas downwind of the lakes due to an increase in LES. Places like Missouri, Kentucky and Southern Ohio have seen the greatest change. 

Interesting graphic but I'm sure subject to error (ie look at Oklahoma).   I would love to see a graphic similar to that but one that includes data from the 1930s-50s. Those years had some notorious low snow years for many areas much like the 1960-70s had some notorious high snow years.  The Great Lakes region as a whole seems to either be slightly higher or slightly lower, with no dramatic changes one way or the other in that graphic.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That graphic screams global warming. The more south you go the more marginal the cold air is. A difference in just a few degrees makes a huge difference for that southern line. That line will be moving farther north every decade. 

It could very well continue to move north, but I am skeptical of how quickly.  The predictions of climate change impacts on a smaller/more regional level have not exactly been spot on, with the Great Lakes region in particular seeming to go against the predictions/simulations so far.  With winter and snowfall specifically, there's a lot to say for natural variability against the larger climate change signal.

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It could very well continue to move north, but I am skeptical of how quickly.  The predictions of climate change impacts on a smaller/more regional level have not exactly been spot on, with the Great Lakes region in particular seeming to go against the predictions/simulations so far.  With winter and snowfall specifically, there's a lot to say for natural variability against the larger climate change signal.

I agree. I think being around the Great lakes in the winter a little warmer than normal doesn't completely ruin a winter because it keeps the lakes warmer for Lake effect which leads to greater seasonal snowfall totals. I feel like we can and will defy the odds in our lifetimes, but not sure about future generations. I have read quite a few articles about global warming and its effect on lake effect snow and the belts and definitely seems to be a strong correlation there. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It could very well continue to move north, but I am skeptical of how quickly.  The predictions of climate change impacts on a smaller/more regional level have not exactly been spot on, with the Great Lakes region in particular seeming to go against the predictions/simulations so far.  With winter and snowfall specifically, there's a lot to say for natural variability against the larger climate change signal.

I agree. Any trends in my winter climate are certainly going in the right direction not the wrong one. And for areas further south I imagine the chances of big storms may be INCREASING, though with more year to year variability than here in the Lakes.

[luckyweather]

The bigger recent trend that I think points to CC, at least as I’ve perceived it imby and anecdotally is the trend toward warmer / later falls and colder / later springs. Not sure that first freeze/last freeze is the best way to look at it, but maybe # of days with a certain sigma of standard deviation above the mean during the periods defining the two seasons trended over the last 100 years. It would take me about a day or so to put it all together locally and see what it looks like. Will put that on my rainy day list and post here if I get it done.

 

Edit: I’m the poster formerly known as krfd. Something wonky happened with my forum account and my Tapatalk account and now when I post on the forum it uses my Tapatalk username.

[mississaugasnow]

11 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Quite the interesting graphic I found online; 

Also interesting to see that small blue dot in SEMI right near Detroit . Per the graphic, we can see a small change in snowfall across a vast area of the Great lakes, minus those areas downwind of the lakes due to an increase in LES. Places like Missouri, Kentucky and Southern Ohio have seen the greatest change. 

 

Since you've been discussing the snow drought that has developed around the GTA, I started wondering a theory. 

What do you think about the theory of urban heat island making some marginal events now more a sloppy wet snow/rain? The reason Toronto would see a downtick compared to the other big cities on the Great Lakes is because they were already really built out by the 1970s. Toronto has just recently (roughly 25-40 years ago) started building out fast and urbanizing. Mississauga where Pearson is located went from 170,000 in the 1970s to 721,000 today. Overall the GTA has gone from roughly 2.5M in the 1970s to 6.4M today.  

Metro Detroit went from 4.3M in 1970s to 5.2M today for example so much smaller urbanization 

 

I dont know how much UHI impact would have (I think very little) but just thought I would share this theory since Toronto has seen a downward trend compared to most Great Lakes city. 

[snowstormcanuck]

5 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

 

Since you've been discussing the snow drought that has developed around the GTA, I started wondering a theory. 

What do you think about the theory of urban heat island making some marginal events now more a sloppy wet snow/rain? The reason Toronto would see a downtick compared to the other big cities on the Great Lakes is because they were already really built out by the 1970s. Toronto has just recently (roughly 25-40 years ago) started building out fast and urbanizing. Mississauga where Pearson is located went from 170,000 in the 1970s to 721,000 today. Overall the GTA has gone from roughly 2.5M in the 1970s to 6.4M today.  

Metro Detroit went from 4.3M in 1970s to 5.2M today for example so much smaller urbanization 

 

I dont know how much UHI impact would have (I think very little) but just thought I would share this theory since Toronto has seen a downward trend compared to most Great Lakes city. 

UHI has had some effect on our snow. And I'd say it's more than "very little". But I'd suggest AGW is the bigger culprit.

[Snowstorms]

22 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That graphic screams global warming. The more south you go the more marginal the cold air is. A difference in just a few degrees makes a huge difference for that southern line. That line will be moving farther north every decade. 

To be fair, I mean it could be based on a number of factors. The PDO shifted from cold to warm ~1978 and all of sudden by 1980-onward we saw an influx of warm and snow-less winters. In Toronto we saw a decrease in the decadal mean in the 1980's, increase in the 1990's and more or less average in 2000's. It's only since 2010 we saw these crap winters (2011-12, 2015-2018). And mind you, since Jan 2014 the PDO has been (+) and we've seen three useless winters since then. The warm Atlantic could also play a role (as soon as the AMO shifted) which has caused an increase in coastal storms in recent years leaving many of those areas around Kentucky high and dry. But I can't deny the fact that we've seen an increase in more crappy winters of late to a point where we can't even get a decent storm, i.e. 2011-12, 2015-16, 2016-17 and now this year. As well, we've seen a marginal decrease in November and March snow, to a point where it feels like winters are getting shorter. 

We'll see how the next decade fares before jumping to any conclusions.