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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

What a joke of a winter, lol. Now you might say, "but we got ~36.0" so far", however its literally all been nickle and dime events. And then we finally get a SE Ridge, but it turns out to be a monster, record-breaking one instead. And to make it worse, we finally get some NAO cooperation, but it could be a very strong WB -NAO which has shades of 09-10 all over again. Just a big fat slap in the face. Despite having the Pacific ridge anchored a bit further west allowing for a more neutral to -PNA, it may not counteract the strong block across Greenland to provide a more northerly track. With that being said, I'm not wholly optimistic moving forward with the upcoming pattern for our sub-forum. 

I have empathy. No big dogs or even medium dogs. Nickles and dimes all the way locally.  The mid range might also look bad, but hey, if we're not going to have any winter storms, I guess I can't complain about the next week:

Friday
Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 51.
Saturday
Rain. High near 49.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 49.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.
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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

What a joke of a winter, lol. Now you might say, "but we got ~36.0" so far", however its literally all been nickle and dime events. And then we finally get a SE Ridge, but it turns out to be a monster, record-breaking one instead. And to make it worse, we finally get some NAO cooperation, but it could be a very strong WB -NAO which has shades of 09-10 all over again. Just a big fat slap in the face. Despite having the Pacific ridge anchored a bit further west allowing for a more neutral to -PNA, it may not counteract the strong block across Greenland to provide a more northerly track. With that being said, I'm not wholly optimistic moving forward with the upcoming pattern for our sub-forum. 

Take the 12z GFS and lock it in. Lol. Talk about best case scenario.

Doubt it verifies if we're looking at a truly anomalous west based -NAO.

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47 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Take the 12z GFS and lock it in. Lol. Talk about best case scenario.

Doubt it verifies if we're looking at a truly anomalous west based -NAO.

The 12z Euro is a monster storm lol, but to much WAA. If were going to see anything in this anomalous west based -NAO pattern it would be in the first 5 days of March as the pattern transitions over (changing upper air pattern as the SE ridge weakens and the block retrogrades). If we walk away with nothing more than 2.0" in these two weeks going from a strong SE ridge to a strong -NAO controlled pattern, I'd be lost for words. 

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This whole weather pattern of late is a joke for western Wisconsin. Sure, La Crosse has seen ~22" of snow for the season (well below climo), but it's been in short bursts with no "staying power" at all. Every system has been of a mixed precipitation variety, and as a forecaster, this has been a very frustrating pattern! We just can't seem to get a true snowfall event here this year and really for several years now. Fingers crossed that maybe, just maybe the Saturday event will go in our direction, but the GEFS ensemble trends don't add any hope to that idea, with another mixed precip and/or just plain rain event (34° and yucky) likely for this area. Sadly, we haven't had a 10"+ event for 8 years now since 2010, despite averaging one every 3 years per climatology. Something is definitely up.......

 

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On 2/20/2018 at 7:42 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

That's because the upcoming -NAO and -AO strongly coincides with big time Nor'Easters. The analogs are not as strong for the GL section. Their hype has some merit. 

 

This will be a rather interesting scenario. This highly negative NAO (possibly record-breaking, if you look at Mike Ventrice's twitter feed ??) will be an east-based negative NAO and the East Coast will have above normal heights and temperatures while the West will be cold. On the topic of Europe, this winter has featured a generally positive NAO and Europe has already seen above normal snow this winter. Europe will get a cold wave and snow in the upcoming days. [NAO index picture is from NOAA ESRL-PSD, not CPC.]

dsiYQXf.png

 

Ik6mKHK.png

 

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23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has consistently shown a big storm wrapping up over Iowa on Thursday, March 1st.  The other models have been in and out with the storm.  However, all the models this morning are wrapping up a biggie.  It's too bad there couldn't be more cold air available.

Yeah, no front end cold.  Any changeover to snow will have to be on the backside.

ecmwf_T850_us_6.thumb.png.bf78afb5202652e98509bf91c5502e39.png

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These type of storms create thier own cold air. As climo might conclude based on these type of " bowling ball" setups someone will get 10" plus in the sub-forum. One of my favorite storms was a forecasted 1-3" in early March with this type of setup that put down 8"+ with thunder perhaps circa '93-'94. Someone else can verify. Here's hoping Angry is pants-less come Friday.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

These type of storms create thier own cold air. As climo might conclude based on these type of " bowling ball" setups someone will get 10" plus in the sub-forum. One of my favorite storms was a forecasted 1-3" in early March with this type of setup that put down 8"+ with thunder perhaps circa '93-'94. Someone else can verify. Here's hoping Angry is pants-less come Friday.

Skeptical. The pattern has not been productive at all over the past several years...decade...in "creating cold air" in the Great Lakes region. I'm about to throw in the towel on this winter.

I sure wish you would be right, but the odds have certainly been against over the past several years.

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5 hours ago, Baum said:

These type of storms create thier own cold air. As climo might conclude based on these type of " bowling ball" setups someone will get 10" plus in the sub-forum. One of my favorite storms was a forecasted 1-3" in early March with this type of setup that put down 8"+ with thunder perhaps circa '93-'94. Someone else can verify. Here's hoping Angry is pants-less come Friday.

Euro does this exact thing for MI on the 00z run.

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I don't think I've seen the NAO value to drop to -500 before on this chart. (500 relates directly to meters on the 500mb chart.) It's mostly because there's such a large trough in Europe/west of Europe underneath the Greenland block.

x4p1EnM.jpg

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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Other than the transient band of rain showers Monday, and some flurries Tuesday it looks like the first 10-11 days of March will be pretty benign.  Hope things pick up for the last 2/3 of the month.

GFS is great if you like low 40s and periodic bouts of sun and showers. Typical transition month.

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I'll take the under, locally.

There is now way Toronto gets that much snow over the next two weeks. No way. I predict it will be like the middle of March last year. A storm will impact Detroit, the Niagara peninsula and western New York, skip over the Greater Toronto Area, before re-energizing east of the city, giving Montreal a foot of snow and interior New England 25". It will then blast the Canadian Maritime provinces.  It's just the way it is around here. Not trying to sound like "snowstorms". It's just the way it is. This city is "protected" by the Niagara Escarpment.

 

Honestly, what we need is a classic "Texas low" like late March 1984 or January 2-3, 1999.

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1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

There is now way Toronto gets that much snow over the next two weeks. No way. I predict it will be like the middle of March last year. A storm will impact Detroit, the Niagara peninsula and western New York, skip over the Greater Toronto Area, before re-energizing east of the city, giving Montreal a foot of snow and interior New England 25". It will then blast the Canadian Maritime provinces.  It's just the way it is around here. Not trying to sound like "snowstorms". It's just the way it is. This city is "protected" by the Niagara Escarpment.

 

Honestly, what we need is a classic "Texas low" like late March 1984 or January 2-3, 1999.

Nah, we need a classic Gulf Low, i.e. March 2008, December 2007, December 2004. This midweek storm and the late weekend system are our only chances left before the pattern begins to change toward mid-month. We deserve a consolidation prize for all these near misses, lol. I don't know how the 60's and 70's were so snowy and its too bad there isn't a daily reanalysis going back that far. The 80's and 90's were bad locally, but after 2000 we turned the page a bit. Around 36.0" at YYZ so far and we only need 8" more to reach average so I really hope we can pull through. 

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3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Nah, we need a classic Gulf Low, i.e. March 2008, December 2007, December 2004. This midweek storm and the late weekend system are our only chances left before the pattern begins to change toward mid-month. We deserve a consolidation prize for all these near misses, lol. I don't know how the 60's and 70's were so snowy and its too bad there isn't a daily reanalysis going back that far. The 80's and 90's were bad locally, but after 2000 we turned the page a bit. Around 36.0" at YYZ so far and we only need 8" more to reach average so I really hope we can pull through. 

JB seems to think late March into April will be cold for the Lakes....I know it's JB, but still. 

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