Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[snowlover2]

0z GFS still showing a fairly strong clipper that didn't dig as far south as the 18z but still decent totals especially for N IN/N OH.

[mimillman]

17 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z GFS still showing a fairly strong clipper that didn't dig as far south as the 18z but still decent totals especially for N IN/N OH.

If this materializes, ratios would likely be high. Ultimately the most important thing is the pattern is there to support this type of event, regardless of where it's currently depicted.

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, Jonger said:

The euro and GFS are nearly on par. The euro leans warm long range. The GFS has locked onto this solution for days.

At the same time the GFS leans cold usually. I do think the GFS is once again overdoing the cold to some degree in the long range (it literally has the entire country under a trough at one point lol), but it does have some ensemble support at least.

[Snowman_69]

On 11/30/2017 at 2:56 PM, snowlover2 said:

ILN mentioning the GFS/GGEM scenario being possible for not having high confidence in it yet.

 

 

 

[snowlover2]

0z Euro was more organized with the clipper but had the heavier totals farther south of the GFS.

[TugHillMatt]

I certainly hope that this morning's GFS run for the very long term (week before Christmas) is just a blip. It shows the ridge moving into the Great Lakes area, with warmth. It was completely different at 00z, with a deep, broad trough through the Midwest. However, the fact that the Euro has also been showing some return of the ridge in the long run makes me a bit nervous. Brings back bad memories of last year...

[Jonger]

20 minutes ago, blackrock said:

I certainly hope that this morning's GFS run for the very long term (week before Christmas) is just a blip. It shows the ridge moving into the Great Lakes area, with warmth. It was completely different at 00z, with a deep, broad trough through the Midwest. However, the fact that the Euro has also been showing some return of the ridge in the long run makes me a bit nervous. Brings back bad memories of last year...

The last few frames of the GFS are fantasy. Watch it change in a few hours from now. 

The Euro ends at 240 hours. 

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, Jonger said:

The last few frames of the GFS are fantasy. Watch it change in a few hours from now. 

The Euro ends at 240 hours. 

Yeah, like I said, it was completely different at 00Z. But, I believe this is the first run in days to show some ridging return. In regards to the Euro, in checking out other regional forums this week, there was discussion and maps posted of the pattern breaking down some. Perhaps it was some of the Euro's ensembles/EPS runs? 

Regardless, nothing we can do about the pattern, and winter will be arriving for at least 2 weeks.  I see some snowmobiling in your not so distant future.

 

[Jonger]

20 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Yeah, like I said, it was completely different at 00Z. But, I believe this is the first run in days to show some ridging return. In regards to the Euro, in checking out other regional forums this week, there was discussion and maps posted of the pattern breaking down some. Perhaps it was some of the Euro's ensembles/EPS runs? 

Regardless, nothing we can do about the pattern, and winter will be arriving for at least 2 weeks.  I see some snowmobiling in your not so distant future.

 

I'd stick to ensembles after 240 hours. Like you said, there is nothing we can do.

I have my sanctuary in Ontario if things go poorly in Michigan. Warm ups die at the international bridge. Check the current snow depth

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, blackrock said:

I certainly hope that this morning's GFS run for the very long term (week before Christmas) is just a blip. It shows the ridge moving into the Great Lakes area, with warmth. It was completely different at 00z, with a deep, broad trough through the Midwest. However, the fact that the Euro has also been showing some return of the ridge in the long run makes me a bit nervous. Brings back bad memories of last year...

The gfs ensemble is completely the opposite. Entrenched in cold at 384. Even the warm biased Cfs is cold weeks 2-6.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Jonger said:

The last few frames of the GFS are fantasy. Watch it change in a few hours from now. 

The Euro ends at 240 hours. 

Pretty sure Stebo posted that the GFS after a certain hour range skews towards climo, thus it will look warmer at those longer ranges

[Jonger]

24 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Pretty sure Stebo posted that the GFS after a certain hour range skews towards climo, thus it will look warmer at those longer ranges

It's back to wall to wall sexiness on the 12Z.

Even adds another storm to the mix 

[IWXwx]

The op GFS depicts 4 clippers in a 10 day period from the 8th through the 17th. I might end up with 3 or 4 inches on the ground when all is said and done.

[Jonger]

4 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

What areas of Ontario do you go to? I'm really interested in what happens on that side of Superior...but theres next to no data. The only data I can find seems underdone and is right on the shoreline...ie, Wawa, etc. It seems to me that that eastern side of Superior should get slammed harder than anywhere on the UP...

 

Just interested in what goes on over there.

When you cross the International bridge and go straight north for 20 miles or less.... The snow quadruples in depth. Elevation goes from 600 ft to 2000 Ft.

 

Here

 

[Jonger]

That area probably averages around the Keweenaw, but they maintain snow better.

 

[Jonger]

Here is the sweet spot or "weenie zone"

 

[Jonger]

Just like that, the Euro is trending toward the GFS.

[BuffaloWeather]

13 minutes ago, Jonger said:

When you cross the International bridge and go straight north for 20 miles or less.... The snow quadruples in depth. Elevation goes from 600 ft to 2000 Ft.

 

Here

 

I've always wondered about that area. They must get insane snow events up there, and have some depth that might rival anywhere in the country. It's so rural but I'm sure they've seen many 100" events up there with a W/SW flow over that huge lake. 

[Jonger]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I've always wondered about that area. They must get insane snow events up there, and have some depth that might rival anywhere in the country. It's so rural but I'm sure they've seen many 100" events up there with a W/SW flow over that huge lake. 

That area is probably 25 miles from SSM Ontario and SSM Michigan. It's smaller than Houghton or Marquette, but it has some amenities. 

There are times where SSM Michigan will hit 45F and that area in Ontario might hit 33F. It's higher up and it's almost as if the hills block the warm air.

[Jonger]

4 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

That area just sounds so interesting. 2,000 feet...geez. The difference in depth between Houghton (600 feet) and Calumet (1,200) is massive...I can't imagine 2,000 feet. And the fetch and geography are just perfect there. Just looking at the maps that area seems like it would be the sweet spot for the entire great lakes region...above and beyond the Keweenaw and Tug Hill. 

I found a few spots of 1600 to 1800 feet.... Just east of the lake.

Those spots probably get POUNDED.

[Jonger]

8 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

We should do a subforum field trip to that location.

I'm going to see that area a few times this winter, I'd do a meetup.

[Jonger]

2 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Noob question...but do you know if any of these areas get setups like the Tug Hill?

The Tug hill has fetch from 3 or 4 lakes. So probably not.

They don't get many single dominate bands, it's widespread but very persistent. 

[Jonger]

Sometimes that area gets screwed though, but even here they snag a good band.

[slow poke]

33 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Sometimes that area gets screwed though, but even here they snag a good band.

Most of that area needs a west(ish) flow for lake effect. The elevation there helps keep what snow they do get. I have family up near White Fish Point, basically across the bay/lake from that area, their neighbors up there live in Sault St Marie Canada but have the place next to them as a cabin for snowmobiling, they also have a hunting camp south of Wawa. They always want to take us up to their hunting camp for the off trail riding, one of these years I would like to take them up on their offer. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The op GFS depicts 4 clippers in a 10 day period from the 8th through the 17th. I might end up with 3 or 4 inches on the ground when all is said and done.

Love the clippery look!

[Jonger]

28 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Yeah, the temperature really varies on elevation around here too. It's regularly 3-6 degrees colder during the day in Calumet than it is down in Houghton. Snow holds on a lot better. I can't imagine 2,000 feet. I really need to go check out Mt Arvon.

 

Anyone have an educated guesstimate on average snow around Mt Arvon??

I don't think it's much more than the surrounding area. It just never seems to be overly extreme. Last winter was the first year I didn't head up there in years.

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Love the clippery look!

This right here is the poster child for northern stream/clipper dominance.

It does look like multiple shots at snow, and hopefully we can sneak in a bigger clipper or two in the coming days (like late week). This pattern may also be one where minor systems pop up with little lead time on the models.  Hopefully the relaxation happens around the middle of the month and we open the door to some bigger threats.

[BuffaloWeather]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This right here is the poster child for northern stream/clipper dominance.

It does look like multiple shots at snow, and hopefully we can sneak in a bigger clipper or two in the coming days (like late week). This pattern may also be one where minor systems pop up with little lead time on the models.  Hopefully the relaxation happens around the middle of the month and we open the door to some bigger threats.

Unfortunately for those outside of the LES belts, it's not the best pattern. But the pattern coming up might be the best I've seen in awhile for my area. Clippers with lake enhanced ahead and Lake effect behind can add him up in a hurry. Although this pattern allows colder temps and many chances for smaller events for other locations. 

[hlcater]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Unfortunately for those outside of the LES belts, it's not the best pattern. But the pattern coming up might be the best I've seen in awhile for my area. Clippers with lake enhanced ahead and Lake effect behind can add him up in a hurry. Although this pattern allows colder temps and many chances for smaller events for other locations. 

I think it looks okay out here, assuming we can score some clippers worth a few inches, but if we can't, which I would have a hard time believing, that would really suck

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This right here is the poster child for northern stream/clipper dominance.

It does look like multiple shots at snow, and hopefully we can sneak in a bigger clipper or two in the coming days (like late week). This pattern may also be one where minor systems pop up with little lead time on the models.  Hopefully the relaxation happens around the middle of the month and we open the door to some bigger threats.

Details for sensible weather at this point are pointless but the pattern shown is yummy. Clippers with lake enhanced and lake effect in the wake are s great pattern for here, and an absolutely mouth watering pattern for the belts. No big storm threats it would appear, but we have til April for that. Lock in a dead of winter pattern in the weeks leading up to Christmas and I'll be a happy camper.