GreenBo Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I love all four seasons. I don’t see the issue with discussing any of them at anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 hours ago, GreenBo said: I love all four seasons. I don’t see the issue with discussing any of them at anytime. Agreed. We are arguing over nothing. A majority of us are excited when the first flakes fly, when the first spring day springs upon us with bird chirping alarm clock, when the first 90 degree day hits, and swimming is in full force, and finally when leaf changing occurs, and we get wound up fall systems, to usher in that first chill of Canadian air I find beauty in all 4 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It is amazing how bad the NAM is with the boundary layer temperatures for Monday, it is about 5-10 degrees below the GFS which I think is about 3-7 below what will be verifying. I don't know what they changed in the NAM's boundary layer but they broke it for sure. @RCNYILWX Do you happen to maybe know of any changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: It is amazing how bad the NAM is with the boundary layer temperatures for Monday, it is about 5-10 degrees below the GFS which I think is about 3-7 below what will be verifying. I don't know what they changed in the NAM's boundary layer but they broke it for sure. @RCNYILWX Do you happen to maybe know of any changes? Yeah anytime it thinks there's snow on the ground it seriously underestimates temps during WAA schemes. The Euro seems to do pretty well, although last summer it was way too warm over areas that were experiencing dry conditions. GFS can be a bit too conservative. Starting to feel pretty good about a nice 1-2" rain event Mon-Tue, with even some thunder possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Baroclinic zones like this never get old. This is from the 12z GFS for 18z Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Chambana said: Agreed. We are arguing over nothing. A majority of us are excited when the first flakes fly, when the first spring day springs upon us with bird chirping alarm clock, when the first 90 degree day hits, and swimming is in full force, and finally when leaf changing occurs, and we get wound up fall systems, to usher in that first chill of Canadian air I find beauty in all 4 seasons. me too but i definitely love winter and spring most. Especially spring with severe storms and many nice days in the 70s and low to mid 80s with a touch of humidity but not yet established 70 plus dew points consistently. April is great with the blooming trees and shrubbery and the typical first strong storms. May for me is my favorite weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 It is amazing how bad the NAM is with the boundary layer temperatures for Monday, it is about 5-10 degrees below the GFS which I think is about 3-7 below what will be verifying. I don't know what they changed in the NAM's boundary layer but they broke it for sure. [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention] Do you happen to maybe know of any changes?I don't know of any recent changes, the major BL cool bias problem when coming out of snow pack has been around for a least a year or two from my perception. Not only is the snow cover initialization often overdone, it also holds onto minor snow cover for too long. Even with less than 1" snow cover, the BL is severely compromised. It's basically a binary thing, where the model thinks there's snow cover, it locks in much lower temps and Td, which you can clearly see on the soundings. The results are laughable based on how far north the warm front got on Monday on the 12z and 18z runs. It had 40s in Chicago while even raw GFS had upper 50s. I went with 60 up to Chicago in forecast today which is probably still a bit underdone.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, RCNYILWX said: I don't know of any recent changes, the major BL cool bias problem when coming out of snow pack has been around for a least a year or two from my perception. Not only is the snow cover initialization often overdone, it also holds onto minor snow cover for too long. Even with less than 1" snow cover, the BL is severely compromised. It's basically a binary thing, where the model thinks there's snow cover, it locks in much lower temps and Td, which you can clearly see on the soundings. The results are laughable based on how far north the warm front got on Monday on the 12z and 18z runs. It had 40s in Chicago while even raw GFS had upper 50s. I went with 60 up to Chicago in forecast today which is probably still a bit underdone. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Agreed with the 60+. It is just dumb because it is so evident that there is an issue with the model yet it still hasn't fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 So, what are our thoughts on March? CFS looks to bring the cold in for the first half of the month. I would hope for another couple week period of winter before spring sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, blackrock said: So, what are our thoughts on March? CFS looks to bring the cold in for the first half of the month. I would hope for another couple week period of winter before spring sets in. Tough to call, but the 12z GFS opens the month on the mild side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I want 1 or 2 more systems to get us over the 30" mark. Today's 1.8" surprise will help in that regard somewhat, but I'll upgrade to a B- if we can breach 30", which only requires 3" of additional snow the rest of the season, so it shouldn't be horribly difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 4:51 PM, geddyweather said: I’m confused as to where the fight is? I agree: Winter is a season and mood. But seasons and moods have change and fluctuations. My comment on Tuesday, which seemed to bring on your comment later that day, was simply about a change in pattern. If my use of “liking the taste of spring” wasn’t objective enough, then my bad, but in my causal mode of posting I thought it was obvious enough that I was using it to describe the warm up that every model & ensemble was backing. 99.9% of my experiences here over the last 2 yrs have been civil, even in winter vs spring/summer discussions. Of course opinions will clash on this. However I do not see the “constant fight” you claim you have been struggling against. I’ve seen plenty of snow talk this year alone. By the way, common courtesy is a two way street...wishing for it after calling someone out randomly for their factually oriented post is a bad look... Now, out to the weather...oh wait. Sorry if my post came off that way. It is all out of frustration. We finally had a decent week of wintry weather, but then 14” of snow cover melted to 3” with patches in 3 days...and it sucks...and I figured others would think it sucks too...but then everyone just wants to talk about spring. Sure, there is talk and excitement on the board about individual snow events...but not winter as a season and a mood. The constant fight I’m referring to is that I am constantly trying to convince people to post and talk about winter in the winter thread...but no one wants to do it, and no one backs me up...and even worse, they troll you and talk about spring instead. So, it’s frustrating. Very simple. It also bothers me that people like Stebo (and many others) don’t understand and empathize with where winter lovers are coming from. If someone loves winter and is frustrated with our non-winter climo, you would think they could commiserate and find common understanding in the winter thread...as opposed to inflaming things and purposefully trying to piss people off. I don’t understand why this is so difficult to comprehend. The bottom line is that, several years ago, I hoped to come to this board to talk about winter, even in the other seasons too...thinking that others would want to do it too. But instead, I get ridiculed and trolled, just like the general public does with respect to winter. Why is this so difficult to understand? This is why I say Stebo and others are trolling...because they’re smart people...and so they can’t be oblivious to where I’m coming from. They are purposely trying to piss off those of us who love winter. Not sure why. Even if someone doesn’t relate and agree with what I’m saying, all I would like to hear is “I understand your frustration about our climo, and I agree”...and maybe chat about winters of yore like 1978-79 or 1898-99. But no one wants to do this. People only want to talk about Morch and melting snow and how a 14” snowfall that melts in 3 days is ok. Where are the winter lovers? It’s nothing personal against anyone. Honestly. And I would love to chat and have a beer with everyone on the board. It’s different when you’re sending comments on a computer screen. I just wished more people on this board loved the mood and harmony of winter like I do. But they don’t, so I keep fighting and hoping that my winter anecdotes and stories and hopes will convince people to change their mind. And I get frustrated when it doesn’t. When it snows in DJF, it’s frustrating to know that, more often than not, the snow will be gone a week later. There is no continuity and consistency of the seasonal mood, and it sucks. Very simple. Yes, it’s a meltdown...ha ha. In the NE forum, people melt down all the time...no big deal. But in our forum, I guess you’re not allowed to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Beavis, nobody is stopping you from discussing this winter or winters of old. Go right ahead. Maybe you will get some replies and even bring out some lurkers. Collectively, I don't think that we've ever been quite as winter focused as the other subforums. We seemingly don't have a lot of die hard 3-4 month winter posters (you are one of the exceptions). I know they do exist out there. I'd like to think this place is welcoming to people with all kinds of preferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Winter is a very depressing season... at least to me it is. I’m really looking forward to spring this year. can’t wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Ensembles are really tanking the NAO to end Feb and into early March while retrograding blocking to west based, along with a continuation of a west based -EPO or -WPO sort of look and erosion of strong southeast ridge that will be a big player this upcoming week. Looks to be a split flow pattern, as signs are not really pointing toward western ridging building too much, so it should stay fairly active in general across the CONUS. Wouldn't be surprised there's some decent snow/wintry precip threats for parts of the sub to close Feb and through the first week or two of March. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 ^ yeah it's going to get ugly when ORD catches DTX..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 5 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Sorry if my post came off that way. It is all out of frustration. We finally had a decent week of wintry weather, but then 14” of snow cover melted to 3” with patches in 3 days...and it sucks...and I figured others would think it sucks too...but then everyone just wants to talk about spring. Sure, there is talk and excitement on the board about individual snow events...but not winter as a season and a mood. The constant fight I’m referring to is that I am constantly trying to convince people to post and talk about winter in the winter thread...but no one wants to do it, and no one backs me up...and even worse, they troll you and talk about spring instead. So, it’s frustrating. Very simple. It also bothers me that people like Stebo (and many others) don’t understand and empathize with where winter lovers are coming from. If someone loves winter and is frustrated with our non-winter climo, you would think they could commiserate and find common understanding in the winter thread...as opposed to inflaming things and purposefully trying to piss people off. I don’t understand why this is so difficult to comprehend. The bottom line is that, several years ago, I hoped to come to this board to talk about winter, even in the other seasons too...thinking that others would want to do it too. But instead, I get ridiculed and trolled, just like the general public does with respect to winter. Why is this so difficult to understand? This is why I say Stebo and others are trolling...because they’re smart people...and so they can’t be oblivious to where I’m coming from. They are purposely trying to piss off those of us who love winter. Not sure why. Even if someone doesn’t relate and agree with what I’m saying, all I would like to hear is “I understand your frustration about our climo, and I agree”...and maybe chat about winters of yore like 1978-79 or 1898-99. But no one wants to do this. People only want to talk about Morch and melting snow and how a 14” snowfall that melts in 3 days is ok. Where are the winter lovers? It’s nothing personal against anyone. Honestly. And I would love to chat and have a beer with everyone on the board. It’s different when you’re sending comments on a computer screen. I just wished more people on this board loved the mood and harmony of winter like I do. But they don’t, so I keep fighting and hoping that my winter anecdotes and stories and hopes will convince people to change their mind. And I get frustrated when it doesn’t. When it snows in DJF, it’s frustrating to know that, more often than not, the snow will be gone a week later. There is no continuity and consistency of the seasonal mood, and it sucks. Very simple. Yes, it’s a meltdown...ha ha. In the NE forum, people melt down all the time...no big deal. But in our forum, I guess you’re not allowed to do that. Growing up on the east coast, I understand what you are referring to in terms of emotional meltdowns. Easterners do them well!!! lol After living in the Midwest for 10 years, I have concluded that Midwesterners don't understand meltdowns. In general, they're not intense like east coasters are. They tend to frighten easily from an emotional outburst. Psychologically, it's very interesting to observe. I like that people are less argumentative in the Midwest...but at the same time, get annoyed because you're not allowed to fully express yourself in the Midwest without people being terrified or annoyed by some emotion. As far as Stebo, I'll let him defend himself...but I must say that it has taken me years to understand the dude's posting style. He's pretty blunt and doesn't like complaining...and is not afraid to call people out on it. My guess is you commenting about him on here will not get the gentle response you are hoping for from him....right, Stebo? There are hard-core winter lovers on here. Just observe posts and you'll see it. I have come to have some good conversations with them on here. You really are in good company. I could give you list of those who you would be in good company with that love winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 looks like we could see a decent cold shot to begin the month followed by a nice warm-up afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Ensembles are really tanking the NAO to end Feb and into early March while retrograding blocking to west based, along with a continuation of a west based -EPO or -WPO sort of look and erosion of strong southeast ridge that will be a big player this upcoming week. Looks to be a split flow pattern, as signs are not really pointing toward western ridging building too much, so it should stay fairly active in general across the CONUS. Wouldn't be surprised there's some decent snow/wintry precip threats for parts of the sub to close Feb and through the first week or two of March. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk The northern jet looks to set up SOMEWHAT like it was during December.....just with much less pronounced cold. Flow looks like it will continue to be fast though, causing a lot of the same ol' zipper systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 The cold air source is going to get annihilated in the coming weeks. Looks like my March 1960 redux call was a bit premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 10 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Sorry if my post came off that way. It is all out of frustration. We finally had a decent week of wintry weather, but then 14” of snow cover melted to 3” with patches in 3 days...and it sucks...and I figured others would think it sucks too...but then everyone just wants to talk about spring. Sure, there is talk and excitement on the board about individual snow events...but not winter as a season and a mood. The constant fight I’m referring to is that I am constantly trying to convince people to post and talk about winter in the winter thread...but no one wants to do it, and no one backs me up...and even worse, they troll you and talk about spring instead. So, it’s frustrating. Very simple. It also bothers me that people like Stebo (and many others) don’t understand and empathize with where winter lovers are coming from. If someone loves winter and is frustrated with our non-winter climo, you would think they could commiserate and find common understanding in the winter thread...as opposed to inflaming things and purposefully trying to piss people off. I don’t understand why this is so difficult to comprehend. The bottom line is that, several years ago, I hoped to come to this board to talk about winter, even in the other seasons too...thinking that others would want to do it too. But instead, I get ridiculed and trolled, just like the general public does with respect to winter. Why is this so difficult to understand? This is why I say Stebo and others are trolling...because they’re smart people...and so they can’t be oblivious to where I’m coming from. They are purposely trying to piss off those of us who love winter. Not sure why. Even if someone doesn’t relate and agree with what I’m saying, all I would like to hear is “I understand your frustration about our climo, and I agree”...and maybe chat about winters of yore like 1978-79 or 1898-99. But no one wants to do this. People only want to talk about Morch and melting snow and how a 14” snowfall that melts in 3 days is ok. Where are the winter lovers? It’s nothing personal against anyone. Honestly. And I would love to chat and have a beer with everyone on the board. It’s different when you’re sending comments on a computer screen. I just wished more people on this board loved the mood and harmony of winter like I do. But they don’t, so I keep fighting and hoping that my winter anecdotes and stories and hopes will convince people to change their mind. And I get frustrated when it doesn’t. When it snows in DJF, it’s frustrating to know that, more often than not, the snow will be gone a week later. There is no continuity and consistency of the seasonal mood, and it sucks. Very simple. Yes, it’s a meltdown...ha ha. In the NE forum, people melt down all the time...no big deal. But in our forum, I guess you’re not allowed to do that. is about all I can say. Funny thing is, there is an entire thread called "Let's Talk Winter" that I never go in, but me talking about a warm up coming is trolling in a mid/long range thread. Honestly the word winter could be removed from this thread because the purpose isn't to talk winter, but mid and long range patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 23 hours ago, Hoosier said: Beavis, nobody is stopping you from discussing this winter or winters of old. Go right ahead. Maybe you will get some replies and even bring out some lurkers. Collectively, I don't think that we've ever been quite as winter focused as the other subforums. We seemingly don't have a lot of die hard 3-4 month winter posters (you are one of the exceptions). I know they do exist out there. I'd like to think this place is welcoming to people with all kinds of preferences. Clearly I am one of the exceptions as well. I post winter and snow stuff all the time. And have never felt alienated. I mean I do admit it gets irritating when as soon as a storm ends im on the island of misfit toys in terms of loving snowcover and others just want the next storm...but never do i not feel accepted. The only thing that is a bit ironic...is that we are one of the wintrier subforums here but yet don't get as many winter crazy posters. It's weird to see the NYC and midatlantic forums so snow focused when they see so little. And my gosh...if beavis thinks Chicago gets no winter, then NYC must be like FL and the midatlantic like the equator! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Well all indices are starting to point to a major eastern trough. AO and NAO are suppose to tank big time and the MJO is back to showing a trip through 8 and 1. I suspect we are going to start seeing the long range OPs reflecting this. With a strong -NAO and -AO, the more east the better...but there's always that transition period that might make it interesting in our sub as well. The PNA is expected to stay negative which might help us too. Either way, starting to look like a cold March might be where to place your bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 49 minutes ago, buckeye said: Well all indices are starting to point to a major eastern trough. AO and NAO are suppose to tank big time and the MJO is back to showing a trip through 8 and 1. I suspect we are going to start seeing the long range OPs reflecting this. With a strong -NAO and -AO, the more east the better...but there's always that transition period that might make it interesting in our sub as well. The PNA is expected to stay negative which might help us too. Either way, starting to look like a cold March might be where to place your bets. Yeah. Checking out the maps for March, it is looking cold, but suppression looks like an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 55 minutes ago, blackrock said: Yeah. Checking out the maps for March, it is looking cold, but suppression looks like an issue. What would make things interesting would be if we could get a storm similar to the one that occurred at the end of February 1984 - I think it was February 27-29, 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 50 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: What would make things interesting would be if we could get a storm similar to the one that occurred at the end of February 1984 - I think it was February 27-29, 1984. Interesting you mention those dates, because here in Pittsburgh we got 9.6” from that storm. Wonder if it was an inland runner ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Interesting you mention those dates, because here in Pittsburgh we got 9.6” from that storm. Wonder if it was an inland runner ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, blackrock said: Yeah. Checking out the maps for March, it is looking cold, but suppression looks like an issue. What's new lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: What's new lol Exactly. I was trying not to make any negative comments about it on here.... Not surprised...at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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