Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[ConvectiveIA]

Really an interesting pattern in the short to medium for Iowa and other parts of the sub esp along an east-west line. In fact so much so, the GFS has gone peach-colored with snowfall amounts on PivotalWX, fantasy snows of around 2 feet total by 150 hours over Central Iowa, and 1+ foot over a huge area outside of that. Peach Colored at 150 hours for multiple event pile-ups is more serious than just the normal "yeah-right" fantasy storms we've seen depicted at 160-240 hours. February gets harder to stack storm on top of storm because the sun is starting to get a little stronger, but I'm liking this.

[harrisale]

6 hours ago, GreenBo said:

Looks like the GFS is back on the mid month warmth train again. Pattern evolution will be interesting. 

EPS also showed warmth beginning around the 12th. 

[CoalCityWxMan]

5 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Really an interesting pattern in the short to medium for Iowa and other parts of the sub esp along an east-west line. In fact so much so, the GFS has gone peach-colored with snowfall amounts on PivotalWX, fantasy snows of around 2 feet total by 150 hours over Central Iowa, and 1+ foot over a huge area outside of that. Peach Colored at 150 hours for multiple event pile-ups is more serious than just the normal "yeah-right" fantasy storms we've seen depicted at 160-240 hours. February gets harder to stack storm on top of storm because the sun is starting to get a little stronger, but I'm liking this.

Yeah will definitely be a fun week or two with lots to track. Fingers crossed we get a big dog out of this pattern, the Gfs has one next weekend but the Canadian is much different so it goes without saying that anything's possible. Should see some decent snow amounts over the next couple weeks regardless though.

[Snowstorms]

We might see a small relaxation in the pattern between Feb 15th and 20th as the Pacific reshuffles. Now whether that translates to any warmth or rain event for the Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley region remains to be seen. Beyond that, we may start to see the effects of the SSW. The EPS is starting to pick up on the SSW and its imminent effects and drops the AO past mid-month. Though I'm not a huge MJO expert, we do see the MJO moving towards phase 8 while maintaining its amplitude which in conjunction with the SSW and -EPO, we may see a cold end to the month and to start March. The SSW could offer up some opportunities, depending on where the coldest anomalies are centered, weakening the Polar Jet and thus allowing for better phasing/amplification. We'll see how this plays out, but February could be our best winter month. 

February 18th-28th might be our best window at seeing a nice storm, perhaps a Miller B or nice overrunning event. -PNA should start weakening around this time-frame with a neutral to negative EPO and background Nina state, allowing for key pieces to come together and increasing our chances for something. 

 

[Baum]

Hate to see this pattern end....onto the Dog days of winter...

[IWXwx]

GEM and GFS has a couple of waves creating some convective activity the OH River area in the next 10 days, while the Euro says, *flash* BOOM!! to ORD next Thursday evening.

[BuffaloWeather]

Long range looks bad with a terrible pacific, but check out that PV split on EPS some pretty awesome stuff. Cold goes into western US and Northwestern Canada. 

[geddyweather]

Liking the taste of spring for the remaining bulk of February. Backed up across the board as well, though it also looks like some ensembles say that pattern has the potential to subside a bit as we roll into March. We shall see...

For your daily dose of fantasy range, the GFS @ 240hrs has a thumper of an ice storm from MO to upstate NY. Pretty colors, thats for sure... 

[beavis1729]

Great, the warmanistas are out again in the winter long range thread. I guess we get one week of winter, and it’s too much for some people. Just ridiculous.

Look, it’s no problem if people want to talk about the upcoming taste of spring from a meteorological perspective. But if you’re wishing for it, then please keep those opinions out of the winter thread. There is a banter/spring thread for that. 

Mods can delete this post if they want - who cares. I feel like I and a few select others have been fighting this for years. It’s a lost cause.

Nothing personal against certain posters, but where is the common courtesy?

[Baum]

^

ha. Sadly they'll be freezing thier azz' off until Memorial Day. Even the upcoming pattern while warm to the southeast has the ability to surprise with a good thump snow north I-80 particularly west in the forum.

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, geddyweather said:

Liking the taste of spring for the remaining bulk of February. Backed up across the board as well, though it also looks like some ensembles say that pattern has the potential to subside a bit as we roll into March. We shall see...

For your daily dose of fantasy range, the GFS @ 240hrs has a thumper of an ice storm from MO to upstate NY. Pretty colors, thats for sure... 

 

Thankfully, nearly every storm on the 192-240 hour GFS has too much precipitation compared to reality. Because you wouldn't actually want that much ice.

Interestingly, Toledo Express Airport and my own observations in CO are now just about tied for seasonal snow (29")

[OHweather]

February isn't going to pan out nearly like how I thought it would, clearly.  One thing that worked out was the favorable pattern for this region during the first half of the month, but after that things aren't going as planned.  The MJO getting stuck in phase 7 has not helped as that's a big SE ridge correlation in February.  The PV in Canada weakening also is helping the SE ridge crop up.  

Moving forward, if the -NAO ends up being legit it should cool off at least eastern portions of the region by the end of this month.  If it ends up being a persistent, west-based block it could cause a cool-ish and crappy pattern to linger well into March.  If we see a neutral or negative PNA persist, that along with a -NAO could put the region in an interesting spot for storms that make it east as they wouldn't want to cut right into the block, but may also tend to shear out some...if the PNA goes positive, which may happen if we ever get a phase 1 MJO, it would probably favor areas farther south and east.  With shortening wavelengths storms could maybe amplify over the east end of the area.  

Overall definitely think a cooler pattern returns the end of Feb (but probably not big cold) and lingers into a good portion or March.  I'm iffy on big storm chances but I'm sure there will be some snow either way. 

[Hoosier]

48 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Great, the warmanistas are out again in the winter long range thread. I guess we get one week of winter, and it’s too much for some people. Just ridiculous.

Look, it’s no problem if people want to talk about the upcoming taste of spring from a meteorological perspective. But if you’re wishing for it, then please keep those opinions out of the winter thread. There is a banter/spring thread for that. 

Mods can delete this post if they want - who cares. I feel like I and a few select others have been fighting this for years. It’s a lost cause.

Nothing personal against certain posters, but where is the common courtesy?

You're right that we seemingly go through this every year.

As much as I enjoyed the last 7-10 days, I usually start getting that itch for Spring by the time February rolls around. Because of that, I started the Spring thread a couple weeks ago but that is geared toward, well, Spring.  A problem arises when we have mild/warm conditions lurking ahead in a winter month, like now.  We aren't even in meteorological Spring let alone astronomical Spring, so it's understandable that there's going to be a conflict about where to post.  Personally it doesn't bother me if people express some excitement about the warmth here as long as they are backing it up with model/ensemble support.  

[Stebo]

Love the look of the mid and long range, starting to look nice and warm.

[cmillzz]

2 hours ago, Baum said:

^

ha. Sadly they'll be freezing thier azz' off until Memorial Day. Even the upcoming pattern while warm to the southeast has the ability to surprise with a good thump snow north I-80 particularly west in the forum.

Nah we’ll see a blizzard on the 4th of July too. Winter will never end. 

[nwohweather]

Thankfully, nearly every storm on the 192-240 hour GFS has too much precipitation compared to reality. Because you wouldn't actually want that much ice.
Interestingly, Toledo Express Airport and my own observations in CO are now just about tied for seasonal snow (29")

It’s been a hard winter for sure here. While the snow has been above average, there has been very little thawing and we had that stretch around the holidays where we did not break 20° for 14 straight days. Been great hockey weather however

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Great, the warmanistas are out again in the winter long range thread. I guess we get one week of winter, and it’s too much for some people. Just ridiculous.

Look, it’s no problem if people want to talk about the upcoming taste of spring from a meteorological perspective. But if you’re wishing for it, then please keep those opinions out of the winter thread. There is a banter/spring thread for that. 

Mods can delete this post if they want - who cares. I feel like I and a few select others have been fighting this for years. It’s a lost cause.

Nothing personal against certain posters, but where is the common courtesy?

Spring is the LAST thing on my mind. Not only because its my least favorite season by a mile, but also the snow season is nowhere near done. And as Detroit has another top 20 snow season within reach, that will be on my radar, not spring weather.

[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, nwohweather said:

 

It’s been a hard winter for sure here. While the snow has been above average, there has been very little thawing and we had that stretch around the holidays where we did not break 20° for 14 straight days. Been great hockey weather however

 

Very little thawing? I have had 3 major thaws that have almost completely melted off a foot plus snow pack each time over the course of two days. This winter has had plenty of annoying thaws, Can you tell how much I hate melting snow???? lol.... Sure, it has been replenished pretty quickly...but I detest when it takes 2 weeks to build a nice snowpack, just for it to disappear in 2 days.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Spring is the LAST thing on my mind. Not only because its my least favorite season by a mile, but also the snow season is nowhere near done. And as Detroit has another top 20 snow season within reach, that will be on my radar, not spring weather.

Amen. We have much in common. Spring is my LEAST favorite season. Ever. Each day I am hearing more and more the eye-rolling-worthy "Ohhhhh it's so nice and sunny out. The snow is starting to melt. Yipppppy."

Gag.

Let's go in on a cabin up in the U.P.

 

[geddyweather]

I wasn't gonna come back in here since I had some words put into my mouth last time, but I guess it's my "warmanista" way to continue posting mid/long range disco in the mid/long range thread...

Like Hoosier said, even though we've got a warmer pattern on the way, it is still winter for sure. Maybe not "true winter" according to some, but it is what it is. Mid range actually seems to really cash in those up in WI, MN, and parts of nrn/NW IA with a couple solid rounds of snow while the rest of us soak in the warmth and the rain. Flooding will likely be the bigger concern for many in the next week. Question in the longest range is whether or not this pattern holds serve into March or subsides. The VERY early glimpse into March on some ensembles suggests it may weaken a tad, but not entirely. 

Take for what you will. 

[beavis1729]

On 2/13/2018 at 2:12 PM, Stebo said:

Love the look of the mid and long range, starting to look nice and warm.

Thanks for trolling. It never ends.

Your comment should be posted in the Spring or banter thread, but the habit of no common courtesy and respect on these boards continues. 

[beavis1729]

On 2/13/2018 at 1:35 PM, Hoosier said:

You're right that we seemingly go through this every year.

As much as I enjoyed the last 7-10 days, I usually start getting that itch for Spring by the time February rolls around. Because of that, I started the Spring thread a couple weeks ago but that is geared toward, well, Spring.  A problem arises when we have mild/warm conditions lurking ahead in a winter month, like now.  We aren't even in meteorological Spring let alone astronomical Spring, so it's understandable that there's going to be a conflict about where to post.  Personally it doesn't bother me if people express some excitement about the warmth here as long as they are backing it up with model/ensemble support.  

I understand what you’re saying. What bothers me the most is that people don’t have common courtesy and respect. 

Why is it so hard to understand that winter lovers come to this board to find common ground, not to fight it? 99% of the general public hates winter...and so chatting here used to be a respite from that...but now people on this board act just like they do. 

I am tired of arguing and defending myself about what winter is, that it’s a season and mood, not individual events. We have had 1-3 weeks of true winter on average during each of the past 3 seasons. It’s not winter. Why don’t people relate to this? Even if you don’t, then don’t post inflammatory comments in the winter thread, about wishing for spring. 

Whatever. I don’t go trolling in summer threads, hoping for 40 degrees days in June. It used to be fun to commiserate and post on this board, but now it’s a constant fight. Ridiculous and unfortunate. I guess the majority rules. 

If you live in INL or Fairbanks, I can understand wanting spring after 4 months of constant real winter. But we get one whole week of wintry conditions, and that’s too much for some people? Fine..,but we don’t need to hear about it in the winter thread. 

[RogueWaves]

Tuesday was winter's peak across SMI. We won't be seeing such stellar winter conditions here any time soon..

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Thanks for trolling. It never ends.

Your comment should be posted in the Spring or banter thread, but the habit of no common courtesy and respect on these boards continues. 

I'll post where I please thanks. You should however put all your posts in the complaint thread as that is all you do these days. Here is one for you as well, you want deep winter that last forever, move to Yellowknife.

[geddyweather]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I understand what you’re saying. What bothers me the most is that people don’t have common courtesy and respect. 

Why is it so hard to understand that winter lovers come to this board to find common ground, not to fight it? 99% of the general public hates winter...and so chatting here used to be a respite from that...but now people on this board act just like they do. 

I am tired of arguing and defending myself about what winter is, that it’s a season and mood, not individual events. We have had 1-3 weeks of true winter on average during each of the past 3 seasons. It’s not winter. Why don’t people relate to this? Even if you don’t, then don’t post inflammatory comments in the winter thread, about wishing for spring. 

Whatever. I don’t go trolling in summer threads, hoping for 40 degrees days in June. It used to be fun to commiserate and post on this board, but now it’s a constant fight. Ridiculous and unfortunate. I guess the majority rules. 

If you live in INL or Fairbanks, I can understand wanting spring after 4 months of constant real winter. But we get one whole week of wintry conditions, and that’s too much for some people? Fine..,but we don’t need to hear about it in the winter thread. 

I’m confused as to where the fight is?

I agree: Winter is a season and mood. But seasons and moods have change and fluctuations. My comment on Tuesday, which seemed to bring on your comment later that day, was simply about a change in pattern. If my use of “liking the taste of spring” wasn’t objective enough, then my bad, but in my causal mode of posting I thought it was obvious enough that I was using it to describe the warm up that every model & ensemble was backing. 

99.9% of my experiences here over the last 2 yrs have been civil, even in winter vs spring/summer discussions. Of course opinions will clash on this. However I do not see the “constant fight” you claim you have been struggling against. I’ve seen plenty of snow talk this year alone. 

By the way, common courtesy is a two way street...wishing for it after calling someone out randomly for their factually oriented post is a bad look...

Now, out to the weather...oh wait.

[buckeye]

I'm a snow weenie....I love a good snow....but I also love extremes which is ultimately the reason I come here.   70 degrees in February is an extreme because it's happening in WINTER, which is in the title of this thread. 

Why do some posters consider it trolling to discuss unusual warmth in winter if that's in fact what is going on?????   Maybe some of you should start a snow and cold thread....you can ban words such as southeast ridge, warmth, rain, etc.

 

p.s.  looking forward to some incoming thunderstorms.   A rather interesting weather event for CMH in mid Feb, (in case I have to justify mentioning it to some ).

[pondo1000]

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'm a snow weenie....I love a good snow....but I also love extremes which is ultimately the reason I come here.   70 degrees in February is an extreme because it's happening in WINTER, which is in the title of this thread. 

Why do some posters consider it trolling to discuss unusual warmth in winter if that's in fact what is going on?????   Maybe some of you should start a snow and cold thread....you can ban words such as southeast ridge, warmth, rain, etc.

 

p.s.  looking forward to some incoming thunderstorms.   A rather interesting weather event for CMH in mid Feb, (in case I have to justify mentioning it to some ).

I knew you were a warminsta! LMAO! In all seriousness, you hit the nail on the head. I don’t like 70s in February, but it is cool to have extremes. Now, those 80s in March of ‘12 were ridiculous, but certainly an extreme event!

The impending t-storms this evening would be cool. That 1st line just fizzled out though! Hopefully the others hold together! Now, isn’t there some folklore about getting snow after it thunders on the 15th of February? Better ask Ghanal on that one! LOL

[Stebo]

30 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'm a snow weenie....I love a good snow....but I also love extremes which is ultimately the reason I come here.   70 degrees in February is an extreme because it's happening in WINTER, which is in the title of this thread. 

Why do some posters consider it trolling to discuss unusual warmth in winter if that's in fact what is going on?????   Maybe some of you should start a snow and cold thread....you can ban words such as southeast ridge, warmth, rain, etc.

 

p.s.  looking forward to some incoming thunderstorms.   A rather interesting weather event for CMH in mid Feb, (in case I have to justify mentioning it to some ).

Some want this subforum to turn into S NE sub where all they do is talk about snow all year long. But like you say this is a mid/long range, not for snow only. By the way, I think you guys have a shot at blowing past 70 if the Euro is right. We all know GFS slants toward climo at this range, so it won't show anything close to reality.

[weatherbo]

I’m not sure how some get so butt hurt over  weather posts. Who cares!? Pay my bills, cook my food, s*** my c**** and I might care.

[TugHillMatt]

lol...This happens every year, as the seasons start to turn. You guys are right that if it's going to be warming up, why not talk about it? I think some of the sensitivity might be towards the actual trolls (who do exist) that look at runs the ENTIRE winter and shout, "YUUUUGE WARMUP COMING!!!" from the rafters. Which, I don't think you guys were doing.

Thaws and warmups are just difficult for the hardcore snow freaks like myself who would be happy not seeing the grass from November to April...to accept. Just like people who hate winter start cringing when I'm proclaiming the first "fall colors" of the season on the heat-stressed trees at the end of August....

 

[cyclone77]

DVN must be thinking the heaviest rains will shift southeast or something, as most of the models are hammering the cwa with 3/4-1.25", with the Euro showing 2-3" of rain for a good chunk of the cwa.  

 

Sunday and Monday...above normal temperatures with highs in the 40s to 50s, possibly 60s south on Monday with increasing chances of rain and possibly isolated thunder by Monday with mainly light to locally moderate rain totals suggested. Lows mostly in the 30s until cold front passes late Monday night, then possible flurries or very snow as cold air moves in with little or no snow accumulations.