hlcater Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Oooh, the 00z euro was nice. Gimme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Pattern looks to become more active with several potential hybrid clipper/Pacific waves on the horizon...but now the worry could shift to temps, as the arctic air won't be as entrenched as it appeared a few days ago, and milder air gets drawn north ahead of each wave. There could be mixing/rain concerns at times, especially south of about 42N. Obviously too early to pin this down. With that said...GEFS showing around 0.5"-1.0" of liquid for much of the Midwest over the next 10 days. Nothing spectacular, but it may finally begin to look & feel like Winter for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: I'm not a regular on this bb anymore so I missed why ALEK doesn't post here anymore. Can someone fill me in? Rumor has it ... He has TDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Oooh, the 00z euro was nice. Gimme. Saw a glimpse of 12z Euro snow map in Mid Atlantic forum...and unfortunately it’s fairly dry for the 1st system. Most areas in the Midwest are less than 0.2” of liquid through day 5. Kind of disappointing. Or, are you talking about days 6-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 "AngrySummons" will bash me for being a sucker but what the heck...the trend of 120--240hrs being so far off has to break sooner or later. Sign me up for the last two GFS runs in the next 10days for SW Ohio...it seems to me these types of wave scenarios often surprise when they aren't showing it ...meaning right now, looks like the Tues/Weds (second wave) has very nice potential but it may end up the first round (Sat/Sun) which turns out to be the bigger event (FWIW). Something to track, another likely disappointment...keeping the dream alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Forget watching individual models every 6-12 hrs. If we get into a pattern where the baroclinic line lays out across a particular area there are numerous pacific impulses expected to ride that NW flow. Very difficult for models to time and catch days out. But these can produce, though admittedly many have been disappointments so far this season. But I can see several rounds of 1-4" snowfalls traversing the area over the next 7-10 days. Beyond that, I could see a larger gulf moisture induced storm that pulls the mother lode of cold air in. Thereafter, suppression maybe the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Pattern looks to become more active with several potential hybrid clipper/Pacific waves on the horizon...but now the worry could shift to temps, as the arctic air won't be as entrenched as it appeared a few days ago, and milder air gets drawn north ahead of each wave. There could be mixing/rain concerns at times, especially south of about 42N. Obviously too early to pin this down. With that said...GEFS showing around 0.5"-1.0" of liquid for much of the Midwest over the next 10 days. Nothing spectacular, but it may finally begin to look & feel like Winter for a little while. This *should* be a better regime for us in Chicago metro than what December produced. Just gotta keep expectations in check. It's always better to have multiple chances instead of having to rely on one, hence my comment in the banter thread about this being a throw stuff at the wall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 LONG way out and first things first, but that's a lot of warmth coming east on the ensembles around mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 45 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LONG way out and first things first, but that's a lot of warmth coming east on the ensembles around mid month. No doubt the flip-flopping theme will continue. Can we stick with scene-1 "winter makes a reappearance" first please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LONG way out and first things first, but that's a lot of warmth coming east on the ensembles around mid month. I would say that it is about 10 days early but I do think the back end of the month, after say the 23rd has the potential to be warm in the East as the MJO should continue to progress in favorable phases for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Let’s save the warmth for March please. Don’t want to waste all of it in Feb like we did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Also, the ensembles show nothing but relentless cold for the next two weeks in the east from what I can tell. Where are you seeing warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 29 minutes ago, cmillzz said: Also, the ensembles show nothing but relentless cold for the next two weeks in the east from what I can tell. Where are you seeing warmth? Around the 15th/16th of February. Bigger signal on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 18z GFS came in looking a bit better for the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18z GFS in weenie mode for IL/IN/OH for 2 storms one this weekend and the other for next Tues/Wed showing total of 12-24" with the heaviest along and south of I-70 in IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Around the 15th/16th of February. Bigger signal on the EPS. If that's the case, this winter will again be almost just like last winter. A couple weeks of winter here and there....and lots of yawns in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 13 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 18z GFS in weenie mode for IL/IN/OH for 2 storms one this weekend and the other for next Tues/Wed showing total of 12-24" with the heaviest along and south of I-70 in IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 yep, looks like central IN might be in the cross hairs for up to 3 systems over the next week per GFS. Baroclinic zone rules! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: 18z GFS came in looking a bit better for the weekend system. And also looks like Feb 2017 in the very long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 36 minutes ago, cmillzz said: And also looks like Feb 2017 in the very long range. Well if it ends anything like Feb. 2017, at least this time I'll know not to blow off the chase day simply because "it's February in the upper Midwest!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Eps still says JBs brutal FEB is in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 hours ago, buckeye said: Eps still says JBs brutal FEB is in serious trouble. His morning update basically says he has put all of his eggs in the GFS basket so he's not believing the European right now. Uh oh................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, pondo1000 said: His morning update basically says he has put all of his eggs in the GFS basket so he's not believing the European right now. Uh oh................ Yea I saw that too. I have to admit, when he goes through his evidence and supporting arguments, he does make a good case. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, buckeye said: Yea I saw that too. I have to admit, when he goes through his evidence and supporting arguments, he does make a good case. We'll see. Actually, you should read Don Sutherland's Feb thoughts in the NYC forum. He's really bullish, and that's for the eastcoast, which would obviously support cold here. I would put DS over the euro and JB every single time. He's got a great track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The EPS evolution to a rapid pattern breakdown looks rushed. EPS has been too fast with pattern changes this season and too aggressive with putting negative height anomalies up by AK. Even during the 2nd half of January overall mildness, there was Aleutian ridging/-WPO. A good example of EPS being too quick with pattern changes was when it completely missed the cold shot (accompanied by the long duration snow event) in January after the initial thaw. EPS forecasts less than 1 week out had that period as a torch. GEFS makes more sense with a gradual transition to more of a +PNA pattern and a diminishing magnitude -EPO. Interesting to note too that the GEFS trends toward a pretty deeply negative AO and even a -NAO in the long range. It's had a bias toward too much Arctic and Atlantic blocking this winter and I'm most skeptical on a -NAO, but an at least somewhat negative AO has support from Canadian ensemble. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 48 minutes ago, buckeye said: Actually, you should read Don Sutherland's Feb thoughts in the NYC forum. He's really bullish, and that's for the eastcoast, which would obviously support cold here. I would put DS over the euro and JB every single time. He's got a great track record. Love DS! I miss his posts on the general forum, although it has been about a month since I looked. I was disappointed when he stopped posting his thoughts on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Love DS! I miss his posts on the general forum, although it has been about a month since I looked. I was disappointed when he stopped posting his thoughts on there. Just read his post in NYC Forum. He did mention the EPS and it's evolution of a +EPO and that he is not sold on the idea, but that it needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: The EPS evolution to a rapid pattern breakdown looks rushed. EPS has been too fast with pattern changes this season and too aggressive with putting negative height anomalies up by AK. Even during the 2nd half of January overall mildness, there was Aleutian ridging/-WPO. A good example of EPS being too quick with pattern changes was when it completely missed the cold shot (accompanied by the long duration snow event) in January after the initial thaw. EPS forecasts less than 1 week out had that period as a torch. GEFS makes more sense with a gradual transition to more of a +PNA pattern and a diminishing magnitude -EPO. Interesting to note too that the GEFS trends toward a pretty deeply negative AO and even a -NAO in the long range. It's had a bias toward too much Arctic and Atlantic blocking this winter and I'm most skeptical on a -NAO, but an at least somewhat negative AO has support from Canadian ensemble. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Would agree here with all of this, I made mention yesterday I believe, that I would be looking for warmth after February 23rd. By that point we should be approaching phase 2 of the MJO as well, give or take a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 06z GFS shows a warm system next weekend with lots of thundestorms and severe potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Looks like the GFS is back on the mid month warmth train again. Pattern evolution will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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