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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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26 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I almost started a new thread since I've already bantered enough here in the middle of a current serious discussion of the medium range, but since you guys mentioned it and it is a long range issue, there are some similarities here which may be relevant down the road. No, I'm not calling for another Morch, but will be interesting to watch.

 

WaterPNormMRCC.png

OND12PNormMRCC.png

The bottom one is the wrong year, you'd need to look at October 2011-December 2011, Morch was 2012.

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13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The bottom one is the wrong year, you'd need to look at October 2011-December 2011, Morch was 2012.

Here's October-December 2011

OND11PNormMRCC.png.9caf5864be3dada9b242060324ee503f.png

 

The 2012 drought really developed pretty fast.  There's the dryness in the upper Midwest on the image above but Oct-Dec wasn't dry in the areas that really got hit the worst, like the Ohio Valley.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Here's October-December 2011

OND11PNormMRCC.png.9caf5864be3dada9b242060324ee503f.png

 

The 2012 drought really developed pretty fast.  There's the dryness in the upper Midwest on the image above but Oct-Dec wasn't dry in the areas that really got hit the worst, like the Ohio Valley.

Yeah, gives hope that we can transition before Spring if now is going to be the dry period vs later on.

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9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Intrigued by the 2/4-2/6 period. GFS has been most consistent with a signal in that timeframe and last 2 runs of op Euro have had something. Also fairly decent GEFS and EPS ensemble support for being so far out.

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Yeah, been watching that.  Long duration too, at least as currently modeled.

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28 minutes ago, GreenBo said:

Real *bleepy* look to the start of the month. Going to take a lot to pull out of this tailspin. 

Models always wobble but this winter they have been downright garbage. There's a difference between what a model shows and what actually happens but I have to ask, how in the world is it a bad look for our area?:huh: It's actually quite a good look but whether or not it comes to fruition remains to be seen.  I'm especially intrested in Super Bowl weekend as  As all models and ensembles show something of the spread the wealth variety going on.

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Models always wobble but this winter they have been downright garbage. There's a difference between what a model shows and what actually happens but I have to ask, how in the world is it a bad look for our area?:huh: It's actually quite a good look but whether or not it comes to fruition remains to be seen.  I'm especially intrested in Super Bowl weekend as  As all models and ensembles show something of the spread the wealth variety going on.

Just singling out the Euro, the difference at 500 mb between the 00z and 12z runs was massive. I'm not well versed in them but read that a Pacific jet extension event is going on. Forum member OceanStateWx who used to work at DVN made a post on New England subforum at some point over the last several months that Pac jet extension episodes really degrade NWP performance at longer leads. This is in a general background of what seems to be poor performance in the medium-long range for this season.

 

In other words, wouldn't get too hung up on individual op runs yet. The overall idea of a potentially active stretch from the weekend into early next week has held, which is a bigger takeaway than specifics of individual op runs as you alluded to. As far as the look of that 12z Euro run specifically, it's not terrible but it has more of a +PNA look than we'd like. I also think there's a reason to doubt such a strongly +PNA look given the forecast MJO phase during that time.

 

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A clipper parade of sorts on the models. Hoping they produce for all (starting Saturday, which looks pretty widespread.

 

Since Dec 1st I have seen 3.12" of precip and 33.0" of snow. Its rare to have that kind of look. Not that you apply 10-1 ratios, as that's an old myth and snow rarely actually falls at exactly 10-1, but to have less precip than snow (when moving the decimal point over). And i use the old fashion method of melting it from the rain gauge can, so no automated precip errors here. At DTW 2.84" precip and 31.7" snow, though its known that while getting better, ASOS can still run a bit dry.

 

With Feb looking to have more dry snow and cold, its possible (though way early to call as a good rainstorm would change that) to finish with that type of combo where snow is greater than precip (moved one decimal point over). By comparison, average DJF precip at DTW is 6.44" with snow 32.6" (avg season snow 42.7").

 

 

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Welp, if you're a snow fan and live along the snow starved I-80 corridor in Eastern Iowa, and Western IL, (or N. IL, IN, or Ohio) you will want to save and dream about the possibilities of the upcoming pattern the 00z Euro is spitting out.  0.50"-1.00" of precip being indicated between Saturday & next Wednesday! :mapsnow: If only it would re create the same map on the 12z Wednesday and beyond....Lol

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Just now, ams30721us said:

Welp, if you're a snow fan and live along the snow starved I-80 corridor in Eastern Iowa, and Western IL, you will want to save and dream about the possibilities of the upcoming pattern the 00z Euro is spitting out.  0.50"-1.00" of precip being indicated between Saturday & next Wednesday! :mapsnow: If only it would re create the same map on the 12z Wednesday and beyond....Lol

That was a nice run to be sure.  The Monday-Tuesday clipper looks pretty vigorous.  It's been all over the place with the Sat wave, so I'll hold off my excitement with the following waves until we get quite a bit closer lol.  Still nice to see an active looking stretch coming up though. 

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14 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

Welp, if you're a snow fan and live along the snow starved I-80 corridor in Eastern Iowa, and Western IL, (or N. IL, IN, or Ohio) you will want to save and dream about the possibilities of the upcoming pattern the 00z Euro is spitting out.  0.50"-1.00" of precip being indicated between Saturday & next Wednesday! :mapsnow: If only it would re create the same map on the 12z Wednesday and beyond....Lol

It might happen too because it also includes Detroit and well we all know this place as been money all winter.

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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

That was a nice run to be sure.  The Monday-Tuesday clipper looks pretty vigorous.  It's been all over the place with the Sat wave, so I'll hold off my excitement with the following waves until we get quite a bit closer lol.  Still nice to see an active looking stretch coming up though. 

 

4 hours ago, ams30721us said:

Welp, if you're a snow fan and live along the snow starved I-80 corridor in Eastern Iowa, and Western IL, (or N. IL, IN, or Ohio) you will want to save and dream about the possibilities of the upcoming pattern the 00z Euro is spitting out.  0.50"-1.00" of precip being indicated between Saturday & next Wednesday! :mapsnow: If only it would re create the same map on the 12z Wednesday and beyond....Lol

Was probably the nicest 10 day run for snow on the euro for us in awhile.  Widespread 6-10 from about i94 in MI all the way to southern OH.   The gem actually looks similar but the euro and gem do it in different ways.    The only take away is that maybe we finally have an active period coming up.   

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ALEK's thoughts:
"The active flow of Pacific waves starting this weekend and continuing much of next week is what I was hoping to see, relentless pac jet gonna send a steady stream of impulses riding into the region, not a big dog look but these types of patterns are nice when they work out."

He also said he's worried about suppression at times but it is what it is.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

ALEK's thoughts:
"The active flow of Pacific waves starting this weekend and continuing much of next week is what I was hoping to see, relentless pac jet gonna send a steady stream of impulses riding into the region, not a big dog look but these types of patterns are nice when they work out."

He also said he's worried about suppression at times but it is what it is.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

I'm not a regular on this bb anymore so I missed why ALEK doesn't post here anymore. Can someone fill me in?

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The set-up for the event later this week and early next week isn't too bad, but timing could be a huge factor for many of us. Right now I'd favor a coastal runner, but let's see how this plays out through the week. Was certainly never modeled as is a couple of days ago. The initial wave on Saturday impacts this secondary LP and where it tracks. 

 

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