Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[Jackstraw]

The GFS fantasy for the last storm had us over 20 inches, we ended up with 3 or 4 so we're looking at 1 to 2 with this one lol.

[Sidewinder]

Models did pretty decent for the 20-22 storm. GFS for the last several runs has consistently showed a storm rolling through here during that timeframe. Will believe it inside of 12 hours. 

[snowlover2]

0z GFS with a monster for beginning of February and 0z Euro also looking like it could be something big.

[Chambana]

Ever since GHDI models are hell bent on briniging a significant winter storm to the region on February 1st, I mean GHDII occurred on the exact dame says as GHDI lol. 

Pattern looks to change around this timeframe, so hopefully something fun to track and something to break our hearts lol. 

[NoDoppler4TnySandz]

Enjoying the relaxed pattern ATM----  starting to get really interested in the repeated signal at the beginning of the month; just looked at 0z GFS this morning and first thought was damn, wish I would have seen that sooner FMBY.....WHOA!?!?! Guess I am sucked back into this url

[IWXwx]

Had to check the Euro and even it gives a good rain-to-snow dump, basically agreeing with the GFS posted above with an STL/LAF/FWA/DET jackpot of 6+" after 1/2-3/4" of rain before the flip.

Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat. Bullwinkle, that trick never works. Hmmm...I gotta get a new hat.

[beavis1729]

This is far out in time...but these H85 departures on the latest EPS translate to -30C or colder H85 temps in southern Canada for Days 10-15.  That's a pretty good signal.  And, the core of the cold is centered a bit further west that it was in late Dec/early Jan...which could imply a better pattern for snow in the Midwest due to less suppression.

Get this within 5 days and we may be in business...and hopefully it can be a good sustainable 2-4 week wintry pattern, instead of only 5-10 days.  

[IWXwx]

As long as it holds position, I'm all in. But what stops it from just dumping in on top of us and once again the deep south gets the storm track?

[beavis1729]

25 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

As long as it holds position, I'm all in. But what stops it from just dumping in on top of us and once again the deep south gets the storm track?

A couple of things...hopefully:

(1) stronger SE ridge and/or

(2) cold won't penetrate quite as far south since we're a bit later into the Winter (sun angle, longer days, etc.) 

[IWXwx]

I hope you're right about the ridge, but it's been MIA so far.

[OHweather]

6 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

A couple of things...hopefully:

(1) stronger SE ridge and/or

(2) cold won't penetrate quite as far south since we're a bit later into the Winter (sun angle, longer days, etc.) 

Off the bat a SE ridge should keep the cold from dumping too far southeast...but I'm thinking at some point during the second week of February as the MJO progresses into phase 8 we lose the SE ridge.  

[beavis1729]

Yep, agree with those thoughts about the SE ridge. 

Initially I was just commenting on the Day 10-15 EPS...which shows near normal H85 temps in the SE with significant cold in southern Canada.  Verbatim, not a bad look.  Of course it depends exactly where you are...as MBY (far NE IL) vs. IN/OH could be significantly different for sensible wx with this set-up.

[RCNYILWX]

Wish we could lock in something like the 12z op GFS or the 00z Euro for the pattern transition system. Clearly a long way to go, but that period is certainly one to watch for a good chunk of the subforum. As far as trends thereafter, the big time -EPO is increasingly high confidence but as others have mentioned the positioning of the mean troughing will play a role in the degree of action we can maintain.

The ECMWF ensemble MJO forecast is keeping it a good amplitude in phase 7 through nearly the end of the run before emerging into phase 8. MJO phase 7 composite for February favors pretty strong SE ridging tendency, which in reality will probably be more muted than that with such a strong -EPO appearing likely. But if the EPS MJO forecasts are right, hopefully that lengthens potentially favorable window for more of the sub through the first week of February by forcing the troughing to be centered farther west and keeping some SE ridge influence.

There is certainly a risk to go into the cold and generally dry clipper pattern that many of us outside the lake belts and Detroit would not like to experience again, which is perhaps inevitable at some point in February. FWIW, the very knowledgeable more east coast centric posters on Amwx and other forums, such as Isotherm, are thinking the pattern goes to more east coast favorable starting around February 10th +/- a few days. Just wanted to say, great stuff from OHweather and others the past few days.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

38 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Wish we could lock in something like the 12z op GFS or the 00z Euro for the pattern transition system. Clearly a long way to go, but that period is certainly one to watch for a good chunk of the subforum. As far as trends thereafter, the big time -EPO is increasingly high confidence but as others have mentioned the positioning of the mean troughing will play a role in the degree of action we can maintain.

The ECMWF ensemble MJO forecast is keeping it a good amplitude in phase 7 through nearly the end of the run before emerging into phase 8. MJO phase 7 composite for February favors pretty strong SE ridging tendency, which in reality will probably be more muted than that with such a strong -EPO appearing likely. But if the EPS MJO forecasts are right, hopefully that lengthens potentially favorable window for more of the sub through the first week of February by forcing the troughing to be centered farther west and keeping some SE ridge influence.

There is certainly a risk to go into the cold and generally dry clipper pattern that many of us outside the lake belts and Detroit would not like to experience again, which is perhaps inevitable at some point in February. FWIW, the very knowledgeable more east coast centric posters on Amwx and other forums, such as Isotherm, are thinking the pattern goes to more east coast favorable starting around February 10th +/- a few days. Just wanted to say, great stuff from OHweather and others the past few days.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Sometimes I pop over to the new England forum because they do have some mets with great analysis...But just WAY too much banter in every thread. So I do appreciate the analysis of you, OHWeather, and others. 

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Off the bat a SE ridge should keep the cold from dumping too far southeast...but I'm thinking at some point during the second week of February as the MJO progresses into phase 8 we lose the SE ridge.  

JB mentioned this in his vid.  Sounds like we, (our sub in general), would want the MJO to slooooowly meander thru phase 7 as that will at least keep some semblance of a southeast ridge alive.  Seemed to indicate if it slams right into phase 8 we get a repeat of the crushing cold.

[OHweather]

21 minutes ago, buckeye said:

JB mentioned this in his vid.  Sounds like we, (our sub in general), would want the MJO to slooooowly meander thru phase 7 as that will at least keep some semblance of a southeast ridge alive.  Seemed to indicate if it slams right into phase 8 we get a repeat of the crushing cold.

The last 2 or 3 runs of the EPS seem to have been a bit slower in working the cold SE, and the MJO forecasts today appear a bit slower with the progression than yesterday, so that could keep our window open perhaps into the second week of Feb for bigger storms.  I am still of the belief the cold comes crashing in at some point as the MJO progresses and the strong -EPO continues, but I certainly wouldn't argue with it being delayed a few days.

[Hoosier]

Definitely a bit interested in the storm around the turn of the month.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

The last 2 or 3 runs of the EPS seem to have been a bit slower in working the cold SE, and the MJO forecasts today appear a bit slower with the progression than yesterday, so that could keep our window open perhaps into the second week of Feb for bigger storms.  I am still of the belief the cold comes crashing in at some point as the MJO progresses and the strong -EPO continues, but I certainly wouldn't argue with it being delayed a few days.

The MJO propagation may hinder some storm development, due to a suppressed STJ, but the changing wavelengths as we progress thorough February along with the underlying Nina signal and -AAM, should allow for a weak SE ridge to be present at times through-out the month. I believe the trough will be centered further west than it was in December with this upcoming cold outbreak. The La Nina is definitely making its presence known at the moment. Our best chance at any phasing or storm development is in the first 12 days imo. But even after that, the strong polar jet in conjunction with the EPO related cold should allow for some clippers to come through the region. It's a tricky forecast considering how many s/w we've seen die off this winter already, but the La Nina gradient pattern accompanying the MJO/EPO should make way for some opportunities through mid March. 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

The MJO propagation may hinder some storm development, due to a suppressed STJ, but the changing wavelengths as we progress thorough February along with the underlying Nina signal and -AAM, should allow for a weak SE ridge to be present at times through-out the month. I believe the trough will be centered further west than it was in December with this upcoming cold outbreak. The La Nina is definitely making its presence known at the moment. Our best chance at any phasing or storm development is in the first 12 days imo. But even after that, the strong polar jet in conjunction with the EPO related cold should allow for some clippers to come through the region. It's a tricky forecast considering how many s/w we've seen die off this winter already, but the La Nina gradient pattern accompanying the MJO/EPO should make way for some opportunities through mid March. 

Definitely some interesting points. 

I am becoming increasingly optimistic about the storm just after the turn of the month.  A large number of GEFS and EPS members have a nice storm (probably 70-80%), though with disagreement on location.  There seems to be some agreement on potentially some STJ activity in that timeframe along with a strong northern stream shortwave riding along a steepening temp gradient.  As you have pointed out, a lot of storms so far this winter haven't panned out due to too much PJ influence, and given the magnitude of the cold over Canada and changes run to run on the models in their exact handling of it at this point that will remain a concern until we get closer in.  

Thereafter, the MJO evolution is both good and bad IMO...bad for the reason you pointed out, it limits the opportunity for a larger STJ shortwave to blow up into a juicy Gulf low, but good because a phase 8 MJO in February is cold in the eastern US...a -EPO in February is cold in the east...I have to think once we get into phase 8, probably at some point during the second week of February, the trough axis does shift east and become prohibitive for our area.  It's still possible to spin up a moderate storm with little STJ help before the pattern gets too suppressive.  

Wavelengths do start getting a bit shorter, especially later in the month, which would in theory bode well for the trough axis being centered a bit farther west than late December/early January, but a -EPO/+PNA/phase 8 to 1 MJO, which appears to be a quite possible combination the second week of February or so, is decidedly a pattern that favors the trough axis being too far east for us to see more than clippers.  I'd certainly hope/expect that we see some more variability the latter portions of February into March which opens the door back up for us.  There are indications that the -EPO could persist into March on climate models, and the "organic" techniques such as RRWT and BSR suggest the end of February and into March could remain quite cold, so it's possible we see significant wintry weather into March.  By then the wavelengths do shorten some more, which could put this subforum back into better position.  

[Stebo]

49 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Looks like the models want to set a gradient front. Many GEFS are still coming in with a bigger trough and many cut it pretty far west, but I sorta doubt that. Way to much trough amping with this winters data. Everything must be amped. We saw how wrong this can be earlier in the month.

Just amazingly bad job sampling post-84 hours by todays 12z suit. Over amped,mishandles the gradient front in the longer range, but at least that is forgiveable. To me, they are failed and I bet the cut down in coverage with the network is to blame. They simply don't have confidence and go on tangents of bad sampling.

Don't worry the 18z GFS gave you the painfully boring transition you are seeking.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Nope. the 18z GFS is doa. It is wrong by 96hours and totally wrong by 168 hours. The point is, the incoming trough off the pacific is not going to surge south or east like the models have been showing. I see something closer to a ECMWF/GGEM blend.

Oh you mean a blend of models that shows a narrow snowband that happens to cross through your area, you don't say

[Snowstorms]

5 hours ago, OHweather said:

Definitely some interesting points. 

I am becoming increasingly optimistic about the storm just after the turn of the month.  A large number of GEFS and EPS members have a nice storm (probably 70-80%), though with disagreement on location.  There seems to be some agreement on potentially some STJ activity in that timeframe along with a strong northern stream shortwave riding along a steepening temp gradient.  As you have pointed out, a lot of storms so far this winter haven't panned out due to too much PJ influence, and given the magnitude of the cold over Canada and changes run to run on the models in their exact handling of it at this point that will remain a concern until we get closer in.  

Thereafter, the MJO evolution is both good and bad IMO...bad for the reason you pointed out, it limits the opportunity for a larger STJ shortwave to blow up into a juicy Gulf low, but good because a phase 8 MJO in February is cold in the eastern US...a -EPO in February is cold in the east...I have to think once we get into phase 8, probably at some point during the second week of February, the trough axis does shift east and become prohibitive for our area.  It's still possible to spin up a moderate storm with little STJ help before the pattern gets too suppressive.  

Wavelengths do start getting a bit shorter, especially later in the month, which would in theory bode well for the trough axis being centered a bit farther west than late December/early January, but a -EPO/+PNA/phase 8 to 1 MJO, which appears to be a quite possible combination the second week of February or so, is decidedly a pattern that favors the trough axis being too far east for us to see more than clippers.  I'd certainly hope/expect that we see some more variability the latter portions of February into March which opens the door back up for us.  There are indications that the -EPO could persist into March on climate models, and the "organic" techniques such as RRWT and BSR suggest the end of February and into March could remain quite cold, so it's possible we see significant wintry weather into March.  By then the wavelengths do shorten some more, which could put this subforum back into better position.  

Amazing analysis. I agree with all your points. 

We've seen models over amplify storms only to become dud's as we got closer. As mentioned earlier, a lack of adequate sampling and many moving pieces across the Pacific and the region, puts a strain on model accuracy. I'd suspect the exact same thing with the early February event so I'm not quite sold out on anything, just yet! That massive Aleutian Low expected to develop around this time-frame is going to create alot of model discrepancy so expect some wild solutions from an over-amplified storm to a dried up overrunning event. Hence my lack of optimism until we get closer. 

February 5th-12th would be prime imo for a nice overrunning event given the expansion of cold anomalies across the central plains, west coast ridge placement, and weakening SE ridge. I think we could see an uncanny resemblance to 2014 for February and March as you mentioned earlier. I agree, weak La Nina's tend to continue winter through March, i.e. 1956 and 1965, so we'll see if that holds up this year. 

The La Nina is currently peaking right now and I expect it to weaken as we progress through February and March and this could allow for increased convection across the dateline and maybe allow for better storm development, i.e. more stout STJ? Alot of variables but February looks far more exciting than December, lol. Would be nice to get something to come to fruition for once. 

[UMB WX]

Rainsucka ran the last two runs of the GFS.   Tough to find two uglier back-2-back GFS runs than that.   Cute look at the end of tonight's run

[andyhb]

10 hours ago, OHweather said:

There are indications that the -EPO could persist into March on climate models, and the "organic" techniques such as RRWT and BSR suggest the end of February and into March could remain quite cold, so it's possible we see significant wintry weather into March.  By then the wavelengths do shorten some more, which could put this subforum back into better position.  

(excuse my lack of analysis in here recently, busy on my final leg to getting my own red tag on here come spring)

[Baum]

6 hours ago, UMB WX said:

Rainsucka ran the last two runs of the GFS.   Tough to find two uglier back-2-back GFS runs than that.   Cute look at the end of tonight's run

More in depth mid range pattern analysis. 

[UMB WX]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

More in depth mid range pattern analysis. 

My upcoming colonoscopy is more alluring than the last 3 GFS runs.  Normally you can find some period to focus on - naso much ATM.

[Snowstorms]

When you look at the H5 pattern on both the latest GFS and CMC, the early February event is starting to look very unimpressive versus a couple days ago. 

The trough/ridge placement atm argues for any over-amplified or phased storm. I'm starting to lean towards either a overrunning event or a frontal passage, which may or may not deliver. Now there's obviously alot of time left for substantial changes as I mentioned earlier in regards to model discrepancy. However, unless the s/w digs and we get a partial phasing with the northern stream, it could be another disappointment for us. Let's see! We'll get some more clarity come Sunday. Not sold out on any solution, yet! 

[Hoosier]

GEM still looks better than the GFS.

[Thundersnow12]

The 0z op GFS and GEFS members were pretty meh. Little step in right direction with the 12z suite of members. 

 

[RogueWaves]

36 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

The 0z op GFS and GEFS members were pretty meh. Little step in right direction with the 12z suite of members. 

 

Sure could use a strong west side of Apps runner-something like e8 going to e19 would be a real pick-me-up