Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[michsnowfreak]

57 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Beginning to think there could be more significant and prolonged cold through much of February.  Was never on the warm train and thought cold would come back, but the magnitude may end up being quite impressive compared to just run of the mill "cold."

The pattern is clearly primed for a very amped ridge in the NE Pacific to return...with MJO progressing through 8-1-2 in the first half of Feb, what appears to be a robust block developing during week 2 over the N Pac and towards the pole, and potentially a strat PV disturbance during week 2, signs may be pointing to a strong and prolonged cold dump into central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada.  This may not yield much snow outside of clippers and LES except near any transitions from warm to cold and vice versa and any relaxations, but the cold may be notable.  We will have to see if the signals for big cold maintain and how long they last into February, though I think if the stars align as appear possible a top 10 cold February is on the table for much of the region. 

Bring on the clippers! A nice transition storm or two to bookend the cold would be lovely.

[Hoosier]

For anyone who forgot, here is the benchmark for cold Februaries, especially in more modern times.

Please not this cold, mother nature.  Not this cold.

[andyhb]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Beginning to think there could be more significant and prolonged cold through much of February.  Was never on the warm train and thought cold would come back, but the magnitude may end up being quite impressive compared to just run of the mill "cold."

The pattern is clearly primed for a very amped ridge in the NE Pacific to return...with MJO progressing through 8-1-2 in the first half of Feb, what appears to be a robust block developing during week 2 over the N Pac and towards the pole, and potentially a strat PV disturbance during week 2, signs may be pointing to a strong and prolonged cold dump into central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada.  This may not yield much snow outside of clippers and LES except near any transitions from warm to cold and vice versa and any relaxations, but the cold may be notable.  We will have to see if the signals for big cold maintain and how long they last into February, though I think if the stars align as appear possible a top 10 cold February is on the table for much of the region. 

I want to like this post for the excellent analysis, but I just can't bring myself to do it. 

If we could just get this cold dump to occur further west, that would be great...

[cyclone77]

49 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yay more clippers

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

For anyone who forgot, here is the benchmark for cold Februaries, especially in more modern times.

Please not this cold, mother nature.  Not this cold.

Frozen pipe nightmare that season 

[cmillzz]

I think February will be a roller coaster in terms of temps, much like this past month. Not really buying into this cold hype yet.

[OHweather]

It's definitely early still and I definitely may be wrong...though I'm pretty impressed with how things are lining up for cold delivery into our region in February.  To elaborate a bit...

The big anti-cyclonic wave break in the North Pacific later this week closes off as a block and moves towards the pole, tanking the AO and dislodging a lot of cold from Siberia into Canada next week.  Then, as the initial ridge builds on or just off the west coast around the turn of the month the cold of Canada comes south.  With the MJO potentially moving through phases 8-1 during the first half or so of February and likely return of the NE Asian/NW Pac PV lobe that has caused some EPO drops so far this winter, think the ridge maintains on the West Coast and likely builds back north into AK during the first week of February, possibly causing another significant shot of Arctic air into the central/eastern US during the second week of February.  Thereafter, I don't see any signs the pattern flips to warm anytime soon, so even if the last 10 days of February feature some moderation I think the month as a whole finishes quite cold overall. 

There is, FWIW, decent model support for this type of solution.  The CFS and Euro weeklies have for quite a while had tall and persistent ridging over the west coast into AK for a good chunk of February...I think the Euro weeklies 2m temp forecasts are much too warm given its 500mb forecast.  It's not a great idea to put a ton of stock in those long range models, but their general agreement and persistence in showing a -EPO February has been impressive IMO.  Other techniques that I sometimes question, but seem to have some utility in highlighting bigger events, such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique and to some extent the Bering Sea Rule suggest a potential big cold shot by around the middle of February...though I think it arrives sooner as the pattern evolution starting next week appears to support the first of the cold arriving pretty promptly to start February.  The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles keep trending colder at the end of their runs as the first shot of arctic air moves south. 

As for bigger snow potential, will have to watch the initial transition period during the first few days of February.  I also think there may be a brief relax and then reload the second week of the month, with some hints that some STJ energy may slip under the western ridge in that timeframe as well.  If cold isn't too suppressive in that timeframe something may work out...I think the pattern may support southern portions of the sub (the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes) more than northern portions around then. 

I suppose calling for a potential top 10 cold February in parts of the region is a bold/seemingly hype call, and I'll freely admit there's time for this to fall apart, but I see a lot supporting significant cold that lasts a good chunk of the month, with little opportunity for big warmth to wipe it out before the month is over.  I obviously doubt we top or even come too close to February of 2015 just because of how extreme it was, though there are some similarities in the pattern and a somewhat tamer version isn't too unreasonable IMO. 

[slow poke]

4 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's definitely early still and I definitely may be wrong...though I'm pretty impressed with how things are lining up for cold delivery into our region in February.  To elaborate a bit...

The big anti-cyclonic wave break in the North Pacific later this week closes off as a block and moves towards the pole, tanking the AO and dislodging a lot of cold from Siberia into Canada next week.  Then, as the initial ridge builds on or just off the west coast around the turn of the month the cold of Canada comes south.  With the MJO potentially moving through phases 8-1 during the first half or so of February and likely return of the NE Asian/NW Pac PV lobe that has caused some EPO drops so far this winter, think the ridge maintains on the West Coast and likely builds back north into AK during the first week of February, possibly causing another significant shot of Arctic air into the central/eastern US during the second week of February.  Thereafter, I don't see any signs the pattern flips to warm anytime soon, so even if the last 10 days of February feature some moderation I think the month as a whole finishes quite cold overall. 

There is, FWIW, decent model support for this type of solution.  The CFS and Euro weeklies have for quite a while had tall and persistent ridging over the west coast into AK for a good chunk of February...I think the Euro weeklies 2m temp forecasts are much too warm given its 500mb forecast.  It's not a great idea to put a ton of stock in those long range models, but their general agreement and persistence in showing a -EPO February has been impressive IMO.  Other techniques that I sometimes question, but seem to have some utility in highlighting bigger events, such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique and to some extent the Bering Sea Rule suggest a potential big cold shot by around the middle of February...though I think it arrives sooner as the pattern evolution starting next week appears to support the first of the cold arriving pretty promptly to start February.  The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles keep trending colder at the end of their runs as the first shot of arctic air moves south. 

As for bigger snow potential, will have to watch the initial transition period during the first few days of February.  I also think there may be a brief relax and then reload the second week of the month, with some hints that some STJ energy may slip under the western ridge in that timeframe as well.  If cold isn't too suppressive in that timeframe something may work out...I think the pattern may support southern portions of the sub (the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes) more than northern portions around then. 

I suppose calling for a potential top 10 cold February in parts of the region is a bold/seemingly hype call, and I'll freely admit there's time for this to fall apart, but I see a lot supporting significant cold that lasts a good chunk of the month, with little opportunity for big warmth to wipe it out before the month is over.  I obviously doubt we top or even come too close to February of 2015 just because of how extreme it was, though there are some similarities in the pattern and a somewhat tamer version isn't too unreasonable IMO. 

Thanks OHweather for your thoughts. You always seem to have good, easy to understand long range write ups.....

[buckeye]

5 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's definitely early still and I definitely may be wrong...though I'm pretty impressed with how things are lining up for cold delivery into our region in February.  To elaborate a bit...

The big anti-cyclonic wave break in the North Pacific later this week closes off as a block and moves towards the pole, tanking the AO and dislodging a lot of cold from Siberia into Canada next week.  Then, as the initial ridge builds on or just off the west coast around the turn of the month the cold of Canada comes south.  With the MJO potentially moving through phases 8-1 during the first half or so of February and likely return of the NE Asian/NW Pac PV lobe that has caused some EPO drops so far this winter, think the ridge maintains on the West Coast and likely builds back north into AK during the first week of February, possibly causing another significant shot of Arctic air into the central/eastern US during the second week of February.  Thereafter, I don't see any signs the pattern flips to warm anytime soon, so even if the last 10 days of February feature some moderation I think the month as a whole finishes quite cold overall. 

There is, FWIW, decent model support for this type of solution.  The CFS and Euro weeklies have for quite a while had tall and persistent ridging over the west coast into AK for a good chunk of February...I think the Euro weeklies 2m temp forecasts are much too warm given its 500mb forecast.  It's not a great idea to put a ton of stock in those long range models, but their general agreement and persistence in showing a -EPO February has been impressive IMO.  Other techniques that I sometimes question, but seem to have some utility in highlighting bigger events, such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique and to some extent the Bering Sea Rule suggest a potential big cold shot by around the middle of February...though I think it arrives sooner as the pattern evolution starting next week appears to support the first of the cold arriving pretty promptly to start February.  The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles keep trending colder at the end of their runs as the first shot of arctic air moves south. 

As for bigger snow potential, will have to watch the initial transition period during the first few days of February.  I also think there may be a brief relax and then reload the second week of the month, with some hints that some STJ energy may slip under the western ridge in that timeframe as well.  If cold isn't too suppressive in that timeframe something may work out...I think the pattern may support southern portions of the sub (the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes) more than northern portions around then. 

I suppose calling for a potential top 10 cold February in parts of the region is a bold/seemingly hype call, and I'll freely admit there's time for this to fall apart, but I see a lot supporting significant cold that lasts a good chunk of the month, with little opportunity for big warmth to wipe it out before the month is over.  I obviously doubt we top or even come too close to February of 2015 just because of how extreme it was, though there are some similarities in the pattern and a somewhat tamer version isn't too unreasonable IMO. 

Nice write up.   Btw, JB is greasing up the gears on his hype machine for Feb.   Already mentioning cold as severe as what we had.   Lots of evidence for it too.   If we must plunge into another 3 weeks of deep freeze, I just hope it comes with some a lot of white and trackable events.   JB already hinting that it looks to be another crushing/suppressing cold.   ugh

Give me FEB '10 or '03....big or go home.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

For anyone who forgot, here is the benchmark for cold Februaries, especially in more modern times.

Please not this cold, mother nature.  Not this cold.

Benchmark is the word. The fact that it started with GHDII, which dropped almost 17" of snow on DTW ahead of that ice box...made me really enjoy that winter. I went into that winter with the historic 2013-14 fresh in my mind, thinking, how can anything impress me? Well, the cold did. One morning my car read -22F on the way to work (and this is not a rural area)!

 

As I recall, most cities either had their #1 or #2 coldest February on record, with the other being 1875. (ie, some places the ranking went 2015, 1875, some places it went 1875, 2015). If no records were kept at a location in 1875, then it was the coldest on record.

[michsnowfreak]

 

7 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's definitely early still and I definitely may be wrong...though I'm pretty impressed with how things are lining up for cold delivery into our region in February.  To elaborate a bit...

The big anti-cyclonic wave break in the North Pacific later this week closes off as a block and moves towards the pole, tanking the AO and dislodging a lot of cold from Siberia into Canada next week.  Then, as the initial ridge builds on or just off the west coast around the turn of the month the cold of Canada comes south.  With the MJO potentially moving through phases 8-1 during the first half or so of February and likely return of the NE Asian/NW Pac PV lobe that has caused some EPO drops so far this winter, think the ridge maintains on the West Coast and likely builds back north into AK during the first week of February, possibly causing another significant shot of Arctic air into the central/eastern US during the second week of February.  Thereafter, I don't see any signs the pattern flips to warm anytime soon, so even if the last 10 days of February feature some moderation I think the month as a whole finishes quite cold overall. 

There is, FWIW, decent model support for this type of solution.  The CFS and Euro weeklies have for quite a while had tall and persistent ridging over the west coast into AK for a good chunk of February...I think the Euro weeklies 2m temp forecasts are much too warm given its 500mb forecast.  It's not a great idea to put a ton of stock in those long range models, but their general agreement and persistence in showing a -EPO February has been impressive IMO.  Other techniques that I sometimes question, but seem to have some utility in highlighting bigger events, such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique and to some extent the Bering Sea Rule suggest a potential big cold shot by around the middle of February...though I think it arrives sooner as the pattern evolution starting next week appears to support the first of the cold arriving pretty promptly to start February.  The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles keep trending colder at the end of their runs as the first shot of arctic air moves south. 

As for bigger snow potential, will have to watch the initial transition period during the first few days of February.  I also think there may be a brief relax and then reload the second week of the month, with some hints that some STJ energy may slip under the western ridge in that timeframe as well.  If cold isn't too suppressive in that timeframe something may work out...I think the pattern may support southern portions of the sub (the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes) more than northern portions around then. 

I suppose calling for a potential top 10 cold February in parts of the region is a bold/seemingly hype call, and I'll freely admit there's time for this to fall apart, but I see a lot supporting significant cold that lasts a good chunk of the month, with little opportunity for big warmth to wipe it out before the month is over.  I obviously doubt we top or even come too close to February of 2015 just because of how extreme it was, though there are some similarities in the pattern and a somewhat tamer version isn't too unreasonable IMO. 

Nice writeup. And I agree, very easy to understand. Bring it on!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Nice write up.   Btw, JB is greasing up the gears on his hype machine for Feb.   Already mentioning cold as severe as what we had.   Lots of evidence for it too.   If we must plunge into another 3 weeks of deep freeze, I just hope it comes with some a lot of white and trackable events.   JB already hinting that it looks to be another crushing/suppressing cold.   ugh

Give me FEB '10 or '03....big or go home.

 He sure ditched his HUGE torch idea fast, didn't he?

[Snowstorms]

All these rain storms and cutters and then we go into a deep plunge without any significant storm risks and same old boring clipper pattern we had in December. Yeah... I'm tired of this crap! Bring on spring! 

That Feb 1st to 3rd event is looking like a cutter again, followed by a deep plunge with like no snow cover, lol. Only thing that can keep the prospects of any "significant storm" alive through February is the positioning of that massive Pacific ridge. A ridge more focused towards Alaska will keep the trough centered across the Plains and allow a weak SE ridge to establish itself. But then again, were left on a string of no hope.  Everything about that pattern OHWeather described screams suppression and progressive polar jet stream. Very common in Nina's. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

All these rain storms and cutters and then we go into a deep plunge without any significant storm risks and same old boring clipper pattern we had in December. Yeah... I'm tired of this crap! Bring on spring! 

That Feb 1st to 3rd event is looking like a cutter again, followed by a deep plunge with like no snow cover, lol. Only thing that can keep the prospects of any "significant storm" alive through February is the positioning of that massive Pacific ridge. A ridge more focused towards Alaska will keep the trough centered across the Plains and allow a weak SE ridge to establish itself. But then again, were left on a string of no hope.  Everything about that pattern OHWeather described screams suppression and progressive polar jet stream. Very common in Nina's. 

 

Clippers have produced far more precip here than any "rainstorm" has this winter. This is actually our first "rainstorm" of the winter today, and it certainly seems to be underperforming. Have you guys had many rainstorms in Toronto?

As to the bolded, that is 10-12 days away. Look at how bad these models are. Do you have any idea how many times that will change by then?

 

Before someone says Im optimistic...I am not saying the pattern will (or wont) produced...Im just saying DO NOT...DO NOT...DO NOT look at models face value in the long range.

 

EDIT - Case in point. 12z GFS would show accumulating snow with a massive temp drop Feb 2nd sweeping through the Midwest and Canada/new England. It will change many times of course, just saying

[OHweather]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Nice write up.   Btw, JB is greasing up the gears on his hype machine for Feb.   Already mentioning cold as severe as what we had.   Lots of evidence for it too.   If we must plunge into another 3 weeks of deep freeze, I just hope it comes with some a lot of white and trackable events.   JB already hinting that it looks to be another crushing/suppressing cold.   ugh

Give me FEB '10 or '03....big or go home.

Yeah, JB is definitely loading up for some cold hype...I do think it's rather warranted.  It's still so far out that stuff may fall apart, but at the moment everything is lining up pretty well.  I've been doing long range (week 3-4) outlooks for a northeast based consulting outlet for the last two winters, and there have been a few big signals that have stood out in the week 3-4 timeframe since I've been doing this...the signal for warmth last February, the signal for cold this past December/early January, and this upcoming signal for cold...I honestly think this upcoming cold signal is the strongest of them all at this range...doesn't mean we'll see something as impressive as last February's warmth or more impressive than the recent cold spell, but the potential is there and it's hard to find reasons that it completely fails...maybe it's shorter in duration and we warm up late in February, or maybe it's just not extreme and is just more in the realm of "it's pretty cold," but I think some decent cold departures are hard to avoid coming up.  As for snow, yeah, I hope we sneak in something at some point and avoid complete supression.   

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

All these rain storms and cutters and then we go into a deep plunge without any significant storm risks and same old boring clipper pattern we had in December. Yeah... I'm tired of this crap! Bring on spring! 

That Feb 1st to 3rd event is looking like a cutter again, followed by a deep plunge with like no snow cover, lol. Only thing that can keep the prospects of any "significant storm" alive through February is the positioning of that massive Pacific ridge. A ridge more focused towards Alaska will keep the trough centered across the Plains and allow a weak SE ridge to establish itself. But then again, were left on a string of no hope.  Everything about that pattern OHWeather described screams suppression and progressive polar jet stream. Very common in Nina's. 

 

Yeah, I'm concerned the pattern lacks snow at times.  With that said, I'd still watch the initial transition the first few days of February...it's possible we're temporarily in the "sweet spot" between the retreating warmth and incoming cold and can squeak out a storm, though that's a hard needle to thread/get excited about well into the future.  I still wouldn't dismiss the potential for some southern stream involvement around the second week of February...though how strong the cold is determines if it snows more in the Deep South, favors the Ohio Valley, or if we can get more of a cutter.  I have to think the latter solution is least likely, but I can see how a decent southern wave timed properly with a brief relaxation of more extreme cold can favor the Ohio Valley for a nice storm...or if the cold reaches it's max potential we'll watch someone within 100 miles of the Gulf get another 4 or 6" snowstorm instead while we see next to nothing.  Probably would be some clippers, but I don't think that excites the masses quite as much. 

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Clippers have produced far more precip here than any "rainstorm" has this winter. This is actually our first "rainstorm" of the winter today, and it certainly seems to be underperforming. Have you guys had many rainstorms in Toronto?

As to the bolded, that is 10-12 days away. Look at how bad these models are. Do you have any idea how many times that will change by then?

 

Before someone says Im optimistic...I am not saying the pattern will (or wont) produced...Im just saying DO NOT...DO NOT...DO NOT look at models face value in the long range.

 

EDIT - Case in point. 12z GFS would show accumulating snow with a massive temp drop Feb 2nd sweeping through the Midwest and Canada/new England. It will change many times of course, just saying

Rain wise, were running on average for January as of yesterday. In the heart of winter we average around 1.0" of rain per month with around 10-12" of snow for December-February. Though we haven't had any "rainstorms" we're running around average rain wise, lol. 

When it comes to storms, nailing down the track beyond 4 days is complex. However, I look at the underlying pattern or the preceding pattern prior to a storm. There's no reason to disregard the potential for a 3rd rain event in early February, which is beyond disappointing, given the pattern in place. The SE ridge and remaining effects of the Pacific Jet extension will send in another bout of mild pacific air, each consecutively weaker than the previous, which may bring the risk for more rain. If we can slow down the s/w, the cold air can funnel its way further south allowing for a further south track.  It's a volatile pattern! 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Yeah, JB is definitely loading up for some cold hype...I do think it's rather warranted.  It's still so far out that stuff may fall apart, but at the moment everything is lining up pretty well.  I've been doing long range (week 3-4) outlooks for a northeast based consulting outlet for the last two winters, and there have been a few big signals that have stood out in the week 3-4 timeframe since I've been doing this...the signal for warmth last February, the signal for cold this past December/early January, and this upcoming signal for cold...I honestly think this upcoming cold signal is the strongest of them all at this range...doesn't mean we'll see something as impressive as last February's warmth or more impressive than the recent cold spell, but the potential is there and it's hard to find reasons that it completely fails...maybe it's shorter in duration and we warm up late in February, or maybe it's just not extreme and is just more in the realm of "it's pretty cold," but I think some decent cold departures are hard to avoid coming up.  As for snow, yeah, I hope we sneak in something at some point and avoid complete supression.   

Yeah, I'm concerned the pattern lacks snow at times.  With that said, I'd still watch the initial transition the first few days of February...it's possible we're temporarily in the "sweet spot" between the retreating warmth and incoming cold and can squeak out a storm, though that's a hard needle to thread/get excited about well into the future.  I still wouldn't dismiss the potential for some southern stream involvement around the second week of February...though how strong the cold is determines if it snows more in the Deep South, favors the Ohio Valley, or if we can get more of a cutter.  I have to think the latter solution is least likely, but I can see how a decent southern wave timed properly with a brief relaxation of more extreme cold can favor the Ohio Valley for a nice storm...or if the cold reaches it's max potential we'll watch someone within 100 miles of the Gulf get another 4 or 6" snowstorm instead while we see next to nothing.  Probably would be some clippers, but I don't think that excites the masses quite as much. 

Problem is, Nina's tend to strengthen the polar jet and with the block in place, the STJ is definitely going to get suppressed and at best we may see some overrunning events, but it'll probably be dominated by clippers. I'm not entirely optimistic about the upcoming pattern and we've seen this back in December too, where only a handful of us got something out of it. We'll see if the -AAM can play a part in maintaining an underlying Nina signal beyond the EPO/AO blocking pattern. In that case, we maybe able to squeeze in a partially phased storm here and there through the month thanks to a weak gradient in place. Though overall, I'd say the month will be dominated by clippers thanks to the strong polar jet. I hope I'm wrong and you're right with your optimism, lol. 

Any key analogs you best believe resembles the upcoming pattern?

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Yeah, I'm concerned the pattern lacks snow at times.  With that said, I'd still watch the initial transition the first few days of February...it's possible we're temporarily in the "sweet spot" between the retreating warmth and incoming cold and can squeak out a storm, though that's a hard needle to thread/get excited about well into the future.  

Well you and Larry Cosgrove must be looking at the same data.  In his latest weekly newsletter he feels things will line up for an app runner as the transition to cold happens in early Feb, specifically mentioning Ohio and Onatario as the snow target....Feb.4th timeframe.  

 

 

[snowlover2]

18z GFS with a nice snowstorm for IL/IN/OH to start off February.

[OHweather]

6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Problem is, Nina's tend to strengthen the polar jet and with the block in place, the STJ is definitely going to get suppressed and at best we may see some overrunning events, but it'll probably be dominated by clippers. I'm not entirely optimistic about the upcoming pattern and we've seen this back in December too, where only a handful of us got something out of it. We'll see if the -AAM can play a part in maintaining an underlying Nina signal beyond the EPO/AO blocking pattern. In that case, we maybe able to squeeze in a partially phased storm here and there through the month thanks to a weak gradient in place. Though overall, I'd say the month will be dominated by clippers thanks to the strong polar jet. I hope I'm wrong and you're right with your optimism, lol. 

Any key analogs you best believe resembles the upcoming pattern?

I tend to agree that overall there will be too much polar jet involvement for significant winter storms...I'm not optimistic for a larger storm at this point, but I can envision how it occurs in the time frames I mentioned, and given how far out it is I don't want to rule it out.  It's possible we see a prolonged period where it's suppression/much drier than normal for most, but you always have to watch the bookends of bigger arctic outbreaks for something more significant if we can get some STJ involvement when the cold isn't as dominant. 

I may go through and see if I can find some decent analogs to what this month is looking like.  Although there are differences over the North Pacific, 2015 actually isn't a horrible match over North America to what the ensembles are starting to show near the end of their runs, with a strong negative height anomaly centered over southeastern Canada and ridging on the west coast all the way up into Alaska.  I'm not at this point saying we'll rival that month in terms of cold, just because of how extreme it was, but that may be on the snowier end of what's possible in this kind of pattern...had a significant snow right at the beginning of the month that hit Chicago and Detroit really well before cold became more dominant, and then for a while we had a run of decent storms through the Ohio Valley...it was pretty close to a banner month in SE Ohio where I was, with 3 warning criteria snows in about 3 weeks with bitter cold for the region in between all of them and a few smaller snows thrown in.  

6 hours ago, buckeye said:

Well you and Larry Cosgrove must be looking at the same data.  In his latest weekly newsletter he feels things will line up for an app runner as the transition to cold happens in early Feb, specifically mentioning Ohio and Onatario as the snow target....Feb.4th timeframe.  

 

 

Ehh, I better rethink then ...but, with that said, roughly 40-45% (by crude, subjective math and analysis) of the 12z GFS and EPS members had some sort of decent (6"+ somewhere) storm relatively close to our region (southern/eastern Lakes or upper Ohio Valley) in that first few days of February timeframe, with some other members having a storm just much farther north or southeast...so, there is some sort of signal there.  I wouldn't get too excited in anyone spot this far out because the gradient will be slowly shifting southeast, and timing a shortwave perfectly that actually blows up into a decent storm along it is hard to do.  But, it's possible a corridor does cash in from the setup...plenty of time to monitor it.   

[michsnowfreak]

Signal for a storm is decent around the start of February.

[Roon]

No way it verifies - but hour 240 on the 00z Euro......

[KokomoWX]

12Z GFS Please...

[Jackstraw]

/\ Be nice.  It'll get squashed south....

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

17 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

/\ Be nice.  It'll get squashed south....

 

Or hit the east coast

[IWXwx]

On 1/20/2018 at 2:52 PM, cyclone77 said:

I wish there was a way to cash in all that 240hr+ fantasy snow.  Something like once you reach 1000" of fantasy land snow you get a free warning criteria event.

 

On 1/21/2018 at 3:32 PM, ConvectiveIA said:

You mean a GFS hole punch card? Brilliant!

 

1 hour ago, KokomoWX said:

12Z GFS Please...

Another 15" hole punch please. Workin' my way toward a 1000.

[zinski1990]

12 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

 

Another 15" hole punch please. Workin' my way toward a 1000.

please happen lol

[OHweather]

A lot of 12z ensemble members have a storm in early Feb...a lot of disagreement on location/magnitude, but a lot target the southern/eastern Lakes/northern Ohio Valley.  

[IWXwx]

7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

A lot of 12z ensemble members have a storm in early Feb...a lot of disagreement on location/magnitude, but a lot target the southern/eastern Lakes/northern Ohio Valley.  

In other words, kind of a GFSish scenario of the trough dumping the cold air into most of the subforum as a low spins up and rides the spine.

[OHweather]

28 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

In other words, kind of a GFSish scenario of the trough dumping the cold air into most of the subforum as a low spins up and rides the spine.

A lot of them yes