Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[GreenBo]

Well, a long stretch of milder temps would allow the patching crews time to fill moon craters in the Detroit freeways. There’s always a plus side ;-)~

[GreenBo]

8 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Just the thought of 2012 should be terrorizing enough for some to hope for a ton of rain. So yeah if it is not gonna snow then bring it on!

The ramifications for agricultural interests was terrible. There’s no good reason to hit 80-85 in March this far north. That can wait until mid May. 

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

I know we have been extremely cold here in the TN Valley; almost burned all my wood up! Cannot imagine what it has been like in MI!

You guys have actually been colder several days this month. The Lakes moderate our temp some...and the way the pattern has set up, some of the deepest cold has been going to the south rather than here.

[michsnowfreak]

On ‎1‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 6:18 AM, weathertree4u said:

I know we have been extremely cold here in the TN Valley; almost burned all my wood up! Cannot imagine what it has been like in MI!

 

On ‎1‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 8:56 AM, blackrock said:

You guys have actually been colder several days this month. The Lakes moderate our temp some...and the way the pattern has set up, some of the deepest cold has been going to the south rather than here.

The cold that has penetrated the south this winter has been very unusual, ESPECIALLY in a La Nina. There have been a few mornings where the deeper cold went south. Overall however, temps in SE MI ran about 15 degrees colder than northern TN in December and about 12 degrees colder in January.

[michsnowfreak]

Word is euro weeklies and CFS show cold returning for much of Feb and Mar after this mid-winter hiatus. No doubt snow will accompany it, but lets hope we can get into a cold and stormy pattern so all can cash in.

[Chicago Storm]

Word is euro weeklies and CFS show cold returning for much of Feb and Mar after this mid-winter hiatus. No doubt snow will accompany it, but lets hope we can get into a cold and stormy pattern so all can cash in.

Euro weeklies have been terrible.


.

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Euro weeklies have been terrible.


.

Meaning a terrible pattern look or terrible model performance?

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Meaning a terrible pattern look or terrible model performance?

Terrible model performance beyond 2 weeks, even then its getting bad already.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'd punt the storm on the ~27th too. Vortex over AK looks hideous.

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Terrible model performance beyond 2 weeks, even then its getting bad already.

Wow how the mighty euro has fallen from its heyday.

 

In any event the return to cold has good consensus. What accompanied it is tbd

[Chicago Storm]

Terrible model performance beyond 2 weeks, even then its getting bad already.

This is what I meant.

Pretty much whatever they have shown, the opposite has occurred. So if they’re showing cold, I’d go with the seasonal trend of the opposite from it.

[cyclone77]

12z GFS has the low pressure northwest of International Falls for the 27th storm system.  Congrats Winnipeg?

[michsnowfreak]

This period of mild was a long time coming and pretty unavoidable. It actually looks less impressive than some earlier model depictions. Just have to get through it. No doubt in my mind the cold is returning soon. And hopefully the active look stays with it.

[DAFF]

GFS has looked much the same all winter... Moderate reality for the first 100 hrs or so. Then the fantasy, make believe systems (200- 354hrs)which keeps us coming back in hopes of verification. The active look is just a marage of moisture much like the heat of the desert. Dry is the theme this winter with more to come. Even the next system looks drier as the date approaches.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, DAFF said:

GFS has looked much the same all winter... Moderate reality for the first 100 hrs or so. Then the fantasy, make believe systems (200- 354hrs)which keeps us coming back in hopes of verification. The active look is just a marage of moisture much like the heat of the desert. Dry is the theme this winter with more to come. Even the next system looks drier as the date approaches.

It's been decently active in the Lakes but dry-ish active lol. 

[ConvectiveIA]

38 minutes ago, DAFF said:

GFS has looked much the same all winter... Moderate reality for the first 100 hrs or so. Then the fantasy, make believe systems (200- 354hrs)which keeps us coming back in hopes of verification. The active look is just a marage of moisture much like the heat of the desert. Dry is the theme this winter with more to come. Even the next system looks drier as the date approaches.

The GFS is a weirdo. It paints vast swaths of 12-24 inch storms 400 x 1000 mile sections of the midwest 200+ hours out and the GDPS isnt much better either.

[cyclone77]

49 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

The GFS is a weirdo. It paints vast swaths of 12-24 inch storms 400 x 1000 mile sections of the midwest 200+ hours out and the GDPS isnt much better either.

I wish there was a way to cash in all that 240hr+ fantasy snow.  Something like once you reach 1000" of fantasy land snow you get a free warning criteria event.

[Stebo]

The Euro definitely had some fantasy stuff in the day 8-10 range, that will be gone next run.

[Harry Perry]

46 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Euro definitely had some fantasy stuff in the day 8-10 range, that will be gone next run.

Lol... saw that too.

[Harry Perry]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I wish there was a way to cash in all that 240hr+ fantasy snow.  Something like once you reach 1000" of fantasy land snow you get a free warning criteria event.

Pure gold haha. This should be in your bio IMO.

[DAFF]

One thing I have learned over the years is not to count on the potential for snow. Last season I pulled the trigger early on two new plows for a truck, after the strong Dec. weather. Got to use them twice after that on snows which I could of plowed chemicially. This season is a reminder of the importance of waiting for true sampling before getting too excited.

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, DAFF said:

One thing I have learned over the years is not to count on the potential for snow. Last season I pulled the trigger early on two new plows for a truck, after the strong Dec. weather. Got to use them twice after that on snows which I could of plowed chemicially. This season is a reminder of the importance of waiting for true sampling before getting too excited.

Plowing is more fun than chemical plowing though, right? How much of a choice is it, is it by discretion? My arms and snow shovel blade are definitely worn out from shoveling this winter but not once did I feel the physical need to use the snowblower. Neighbors used the blowers many times. It comes down to preferece often times. 

[Jonger]

Blowers FTW.

A 1/2 gallon of gas lasts me an entire season. 

[DAFF]

The amount and composition of the snow plays a big role in the plan of action in removing it. As well as temperature trends and hours of sunlight. On a 1/2 inch of snow I will plow it 80% of the time then salt. On larger parking lots it really reduces salt waste and the tendency of a refreeze later in the day and the risk of a fall. Timing is everything and knowing the weather trends for the next 48 hours will dictate the best route for the customer.

Nearly all of my clients are those to which quality of service is paramount and parking areas are at least 2 acres in size. I have found the size of the lot will keep the lowballers at bay and allow me to keep the lots I have with very little competition from others. This season I have already used in excess of 200 000 lb of salt... Its been a good season with all of the C-1 events.

[Harry]

9 hours ago, Stebo said:

The Euro definitely had some fantasy stuff in the day 8-10 range, that will be gone next run.

 

Still has it! Gonna take a slew of runs before i even consider it...

[BuffaloWeather]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Plowing is more fun than chemical plowing though, right? How much of a choice is it, is it by discretion? My arms and snow shovel blade are definitely worn out from shoveling this winter but not once did I feel the physical need to use the snowblower. Neighbors used the blowers many times. It comes down to preferece often times. 

If people used shovels around here they would all be on the cover of fitness magazines.

I shovel quite a bit depending on how big the storm was. IMO nothing beats a high quality shovel. 

[ConvectiveIA]

On 1/20/2018 at 1:52 PM, cyclone77 said:

I wish there was a way to cash in all that 240hr+ fantasy snow.  Something like once you reach 1000" of fantasy land snow you get a free warning criteria event.

You mean a GFS hole punch card? Brilliant!

[OHweather]

Beginning to think there could be more significant and prolonged cold through much of February.  Was never on the warm train and thought cold would come back, but the magnitude may end up being quite impressive compared to just run of the mill "cold."

The pattern is clearly primed for a very amped ridge in the NE Pacific to return...with MJO progressing through 8-1-2 in the first half of Feb, what appears to be a robust block developing during week 2 over the N Pac and towards the pole, and potentially a strat PV disturbance during week 2, signs may be pointing to a strong and prolonged cold dump into central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada.  This may not yield much snow outside of clippers and LES except near any transitions from warm to cold and vice versa and any relaxations, but the cold may be notable.  We will have to see if the signals for big cold maintain and how long they last into February, though I think if the stars align as appear possible a top 10 cold February is on the table for much of the region. 

[IWXwx]

You're just full of good news.

[Stebo]

50 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Beginning to think there could be more significant and prolonged cold through much of February.  Was never on the warm train and thought cold would come back, but the magnitude may end up being quite impressive compared to just run of the mill "cold."

The pattern is clearly primed for a very amped ridge in the NE Pacific to return...with MJO progressing through 8-1-2 in the first half of Feb, what appears to be a robust block developing during week 2 over the N Pac and towards the pole, and potentially a strat PV disturbance during week 2, signs may be pointing to a strong and prolonged cold dump into central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada.  This may not yield much snow outside of clippers and LES except near any transitions from warm to cold and vice versa and any relaxations, but the cold may be notable.  We will have to see if the signals for big cold maintain and how long they last into February, though I think if the stars align as appear possible a top 10 cold February is on the table for much of the region. 

Yay more clippers