GreenBo Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12z GFS spins up big sub 1000mb storm in the med range. Probably another heartbreaker, but we might have another week of tracking. Tiresome if this one doesn’t materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, GreenBo said: 12z GFS spins up big sub 1000mb storm in the med range. Probably another heartbreaker, but we might have another week of tracking. Tiresome if this one doesn’t materialize. I nominate Cyclone to start the thread on this one. Hoosier apparently doesn't have the mojo this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 SE trend this season should give CLE the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I nominate Cyclone to start the thread on this one. Hoosier apparently doesn't have the mojo this season. Haha, actually the last time I started a storm thread Hoosier and Tim got dumped on pretty good back in LAF. Was several years ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nice big dog on the 00z Euro for January 21-22. There's been a good signal on the ensembles for a system over the region during that time period past few days. Let's see how it goes. It's just nice overall to see a more active look in the longer ranges. I'm with OHweather in thinking that extended torches are unlikely moving forward. Unless there's big changes next few days, it looks like the warm up next weekend is unavoidable, but that already will be a much more compressed stretch of warmth than it was modeled to be less than a week ago. The AK region ridging tendency looks to persist, usually a good sign to preclude major torches and it should be more west based than its been all winter and allow for southeast ridging and western troughing. -AO in the means isn't a bad look either when combined with a -EPO and/or -WPO and -PNA. All in all late January is currently looking to be an active stretch with snow chances but also mixed precip and warm/rain risks from southeast ridge flexing. At this point, given the above, it's possible that central, western and northern portions of the sub will be more favored than eastern and southeastern portions.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Nice big dog on the 00z Euro for January 21-22. There's been a good signal on the ensembles for a system over the region during that time period past few days. Let's see how it goes. It's just nice overall to see a more active look in the longer ranges. I'm with OHweather in thinking that extended torches are unlikely moving forward. Unless there's big changes next few days, it looks like the warm up next weekend is unavoidable, but that already will be a much more compressed stretch of warmth than it was modeled to be less than a week ago. The AK region ridging tendency looks to persist, usually a good sign to preclude major torches and it should be more west based than its been all winter and allow for southeast ridging and western troughing. -AO in the means isn't a bad look either when combined with a -EPO and/or -WPO and -PNA. All in all late January is currently looking to be an active stretch with snow chances but also mixed precip and warm/rain risks from southeast ridge flexing. At this point, given the above, it's possible that central, western and northern portions of the sub will be more favored than eastern and southeastern portions. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk 12z GFS seems to still be onboard. It's a nice picture to look at, that's for sure! Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, ams30721us said: 12z GFS seems to still be onboard. It's a nice picture to look at, that's for sure! Ha High pressure sitting over Ontario too... could get dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Op Euro further north this run, but would still bring widespread rainfall amounts over 1/2" for much of the western sub. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I won't believe any model that shows a strong, wrapped up low coming at us(rain or snow) from the SW until I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 DTX with an interesting take on the evolution of the LR pattern. Mild and stormy. By next weekend, the upper level pattern will likely be undergoing a major transformation as dominant upper troughing sets up over the western CONUS as ridging translates eastward over the remainder of the CONUS. In the immediate term, this would suggest a continued moderation into next Sunday as a significant storm system ejects from the western trough into the area. There is some suggestion that this may become the dominant upper pattern for the rest of the month which would bring a milder (and stormier) pattern to the region as compared to our recent bouts of relatively persistent arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 We are definitely rolling the dice with this pattern as others have said. I basically have no expectation of escaping thaws. I will be happy if even one of these systems out of the southwest gives me significant snow before the end of the month, but it would be nice to get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Warm MJO phases rearing their ugly head, among other tele-connections. These things didn't seem to phase the Winter '13-'14, but it appears we're gonna lose Winter for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like another rainmaker coming late next week, lol. One thing's for sure, models usually never back-off on those storms if they all have it in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Winter now looks to take its first real hiatus (as in that will last more than a few days). Late Jan into the beginning of Feb looks meh. Not that it cant or wont snow, but definitely not deep winter. Its a bit irritating that this is the 2nd year in a row the climatological dead of winter comes with mild weather, but it is what it is. 29.1" on the season here and 28.1" at DTW. It hasn't been perfect but really not a bad winter so far, not bad at all. Snow is in the + column and temps in the - column. Ive heard rumblings that by mid Feb and into March a cold, stormy pattern looks like a decent bet. So going to try not to let the hiatus bother me too much. Model output shows cold and wet, so maybe that stormy pattern has legs this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 So what's the reasoning for deep cold troughs always giving way to Lake cutters? December and January both running well below normal, but every storm brings rain. Next Monday follows the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 21 minutes ago, Jonger said: So what's the reasoning for deep cold troughs always giving way to Lake cutters? December and January both running well below normal, but every storm brings rain. Next Monday follows the trend. Lmao. I just posted earlier in the banter thread. I would like to know where all this rain has been falling supposably in southern Michigan? We have had next to no rain this entire Winter season! A few hundredths of an inch in early Dec then some light rain last week before the ice. Less than a quarter inch of plain since Dec 1st. Edit- I looked and FNT has has 0.18" rain since Dec 1st and DTW approx 0.20-0.25" (not sure how much was zr last Fri) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Lmao. I just posted earlier in the banter thread. I would like to know where all this rain has been falling supposably in southern Michigan? We have had next to no rain this entire Winter season! A few hundredths of an inch in early Dec then some light rain last week before the ice. Less than a quarter inch of plain since Dec 1st. Edit- I looked and FNT has has 0.18" rain since Dec 1st and DTW approx 0.20-0.25" (not sure how much was zr last Fri) Buckets and buckets of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Buckets and buckets of rain I hope we get buckets and buckets of rain to be honest. We need the rain as noted above, the entire region does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: I hope we get buckets and buckets of rain to be honest. We need the rain as noted above, the entire region does. Just the thought of 2012 should be terrorizing enough for some to hope for a ton of rain. So yeah if it is not gonna snow then bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Harry said: Just the thought of 2012 should be terrorizing enough for some to hope for a ton of rain. So yeah if it is not gonna snow then bring it on! Yeah hard pass on that kind of heat, same with 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, Stebo said: I hope we get buckets and buckets of rain to be honest. We need the rain as noted above, the entire region does. I read something a while back that stated second year Nina's are typically drier than first year Nina's. Don't know if that hold's some value to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 At DTW, snow is over 10" above avg to date but winter precip is 1.50" below avg. CERTAINLY not the combination expected to be sitting at in mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Yeah hard pass on that kind of heat, same with 1988. At least that stuff is kinda interesting. Days and days of temps in the 80s and high dews gets boring if convection is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: At least that stuff is kinda interesting. Days and days of temps in the 80s and high dews gets boring. It can be hot and interesting without a massive drought, see 1995 or 2006 with derechoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I'll wait till April on that rain. Rain in DJF is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Jonger said: I'll wait till April on that rain. Rain in DJF is depressing. Just like low to mid 70s in JJA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: Just like low to mid 70s in JJA. Only if you own a boat. Most of us don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Just now, Jonger said: Only if you own a boat. Most of us don't. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I don't want rain Either, I was just stating that nearly all precip has been snow this winter. Hopefully the 2nd half of winter is snowy and stormy to erase some of those deficits in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:19 PM, Stebo said: Why? He is 100% cold year after year and has been for over a decade. Might be the one time where even he has to call it like it is and that it will be warming up, which god I hope does happen if it isn't going to be snowing. I know we have been extremely cold here in the TN Valley; almost burned all my wood up! Cannot imagine what it has been like in MI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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