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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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1 hour ago, GreenBo said:

12z GFS spins up big sub 1000mb storm in the med range. Probably another heartbreaker, but we might have another week of tracking. Tiresome if this one doesn’t materialize. 

I nominate Cyclone to start the thread on this one. Hoosier apparently doesn't have the mojo this season.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_33.png

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Nice big dog on the 00z Euro for January 21-22. There's been a good signal on the ensembles for a system over the region during that time period past few days. Let's see how it goes. It's just nice overall to see a more active look in the longer ranges.

I'm with OHweather in thinking that extended torches are unlikely moving forward. Unless there's big changes next few days, it looks like the warm up next weekend is unavoidable, but that already will be a much more compressed stretch of warmth than it was modeled to be less than a week ago.

The AK region ridging tendency looks to persist, usually a good sign to preclude major torches and it should be more west based than its been all winter and allow for southeast ridging and western troughing. -AO in the means isn't a bad look either when combined with a -EPO and/or -WPO and -PNA.

All in all late January is currently looking to be an active stretch with snow chances but also mixed precip and warm/rain risks from southeast ridge flexing. At this point, given the above, it's possible that central, western and northern portions of the sub will be more favored than eastern and southeastern portions.

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8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Nice big dog on the 00z Euro for January 21-22. There's been a good signal on the ensembles for a system over the region during that time period past few days. Let's see how it goes. It's just nice overall to see a more active look in the longer ranges.

I'm with OHweather in thinking that extended torches are unlikely moving forward. Unless there's big changes next few days, it looks like the warm up next weekend is unavoidable, but that already will be a much more compressed stretch of warmth than it was modeled to be less than a week ago.

The AK region ridging tendency looks to persist, usually a good sign to preclude major torches and it should be more west based than its been all winter and allow for southeast ridging and western troughing. -AO in the means isn't a bad look either when combined with a -EPO and/or -WPO and -PNA.

All in all late January is currently looking to be an active stretch with snow chances but also mixed precip and warm/rain risks from southeast ridge flexing. At this point, given the above, it's possible that central, western and northern portions of the sub will be more favored than eastern and southeastern portions.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

12z GFS seems to still be onboard. It's a nice picture to look at, that's for sure! Ha

10xah4o.png

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DTX with an interesting take on the evolution of the LR pattern. Mild and stormy. 

 

By next weekend, the upper level pattern will likely be undergoing a
major transformation as dominant upper troughing sets up over the
western CONUS as ridging translates eastward over the remainder of
the CONUS. In the immediate term, this would suggest a continued
moderation into next Sunday as a significant storm system ejects from
the western trough into the area. There is some suggestion that this
may become the dominant upper pattern for the rest of the month
which would bring a milder (and stormier) pattern to the region as
compared to our recent bouts of relatively persistent arctic air.
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We are definitely rolling the dice with this pattern as others have said.  I basically have no expectation of escaping thaws. I will be happy if even one of these systems out of the southwest gives me significant snow before the end of the month, but it would be nice to get more.

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Winter now looks to take its first real hiatus (as in that will last more than a few days). Late Jan into the beginning of Feb looks meh. Not that it cant or wont snow, but definitely not deep winter. Its a bit irritating that this is the 2nd year in a row the climatological dead of winter comes with mild weather, but it is what it is. 29.1" on the season here and 28.1" at DTW. It hasn't been perfect but really not a bad winter so far, not bad at all. Snow is in the + column and temps in the - column.

 

Ive heard rumblings that by mid Feb and into March a cold, stormy pattern looks like a decent bet. So going to try not to let the hiatus bother me too much. Model output shows cold and wet, so maybe that stormy pattern has legs this time.

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21 minutes ago, Jonger said:

So what's the reasoning for deep cold troughs always giving way to Lake cutters?

December and January both running well below normal, but every storm brings rain. Next Monday follows the trend.

Lmao. I just posted earlier in the banter thread. I would like to know where all this rain has been falling supposably in southern Michigan? :huh: We have had next to no rain this entire Winter season! A few hundredths of an inch in early Dec then some light rain last week before the ice. Less than a quarter inch of plain since Dec 1st.

Edit- I looked and FNT has has 0.18" rain since Dec 1st and DTW approx 0.20-0.25" (not sure how much was zr last Fri)

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. I just posted earlier in the banter thread. I would like to know where all this rain has been falling supposably in southern Michigan? :huh: We have had next to no rain this entire Winter season! A few hundredths of an inch in early Dec then some light rain last week before the ice. Less than a quarter inch of plain since Dec 1st.

Edit- I looked and FNT has has 0.18" rain since Dec 1st and DTW approx 0.20-0.25" (not sure how much was zr last Fri)

Buckets and buckets of rain

60dPNormMRCC.png.622bd8bfb3f716f86c5c2348f060a25c.png

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

I hope we get buckets and buckets of rain to be honest. We need the rain as noted above, the entire region does.

 

Just the thought of 2012 should be terrorizing enough for some to hope for a ton of rain. So yeah if it is not gonna snow then bring it on!

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18 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I hope we get buckets and buckets of rain to be honest. We need the rain as noted above, the entire region does.

I read something a while back that stated second year Nina's are typically drier than first year Nina's. Don't know if that hold's some value to it. 

 

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On 1/2/2018 at 7:19 PM, Stebo said:

Why? He is 100% cold year after year and has been for over a decade. Might be the one time where even he has to call it like it is and that it will be warming up, which god I hope does happen if it isn't going to be snowing.

I know we have been extremely cold here in the TN Valley; almost burned all my wood up! Cannot imagine what it has been like in MI!

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