RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Very nice Euro run overall with big time cold sector QPF. Mid and upper pattern could argue for even a bit west of surface reflection. Would like to see more EPS members shift west with 00z run. Chicago is most definitely still in the game for this storm. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Very nice Euro run overall with big time cold sector QPF. Mid and upper pattern could argue for even a bit west of surface reflection. Would like to see more EPS members shift west with 00z run. Chicago is most definitely still in the game for this storm. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Just speaking in general and not focused on an exact area, that was probably one of the better Euro runs in this sub since GHD. Ice threat looking legit too. Maybe a spread the ice around situation too as the low level cold air starts to bleed in, but then becoming more focused in some corridor if the latest runs are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 What's impressive is I count 2 EPS members that don't have a storm with a swath of at least 6" of snow affecting part of the sub Friday-Saturday. So, 96% of the members show the storm in some form. The two that miss are a bit too weak/southeast to bring 6" to part of the sub, though one does outside of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 FWIW, the 06Z GFS shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 0z GFS nails central IN, NEO and SEMI. Incredible run. The 0z ECMWF is pure sexiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 A nice wound up blizzard following record cold and prior to a of flood of pacific warmth just screams La Niña. Volatility is always good to weather buffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 If I had to guess on this one I'd go with the idea that the euro is too far nw, the gfs is probably a tad too far southeast and the axis of heaviest end up from central IN thru NW OH. CMH will get screwed and scraped to the nw, central and southern IN will finally get a well deserved snowstorm, and fcking detroit will yet again score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, buckeye said: If I had to guess on this one I'd go with the idea that the euro is too far nw, the gfs is probably a tad too far southeast and the axis of heaviest end up from central IN thru NW OH. CMH will get screwed and scraped to the nw, central and southern IN will finally get a well deserved snowstorm, and fcking detroit will yet again score. EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS: lol, that would be a scraper to our southeast. I don't know but the eps always seems to be south and east of the OP on these type of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 And crazy Uncle Joe....who crowed about his early identification of the coming "Arcticgeddon"....and lately been harping on the coming 3 week long "Thawgeddon" is now doing some quick backtracking.... Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago More Convection pulling back into western Indian Ocean more indicative of phase 2 ( cold for US) and a bust on the Euro which from Jan 1st had this well into phase 3 BOMM as on Jan 6 had strong phase 2 still. Gives credence to renewed strong cold day 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: FWIW, the 06Z GFS shifted east. It is almost a carbon copy of yesterday's 06Z run. 21 minutes ago, buckeye said: lol, that would be a scraper to our southeast. I don't know but the eps always seems to be south and east of the OP on these type of systems. The EPS is almost a carbon copy of the 12Z run. (See what I did there?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 12z GFS shifted the precipitation field west by a solid 100-150 miles. This is nowhere near sorted. Also anyone else notice the lake effect signal over the western shore for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 12z GFS shifted the precipitation field west by a solid 100-150 miles. This is nowhere near sorted. Also anyone else notice the lake effect signal over the western shore for Saturday?Nice shift west with the 12z GEM as well, including with mass fields. Stronger farther west wave and stronger more negatively tilted coupled upper jet. I've been thinking if the likely big dog unfortunately misses us, then the consolation prize would be a good IL side LES setup. Nice full fetch surface to 850 NNE flow.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: 12z GFS shifted the precipitation field west by a solid 100-150 miles. This is nowhere near sorted. Also anyone else notice the lake effect signal over the western shore for Saturday? Pretty standard rule; wound up deep low will pull further NW sheared out weaker further south and east. Been at least a couple years since Chicago area has seen this, and even longer for a true Gulf low to put good snows into Chicago. Would think we want that first storm to be warmer/west for a secondary to put us in the game. Than again my thoughts are purely historical experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baum said: Pretty standard rule; wound up deep low will pull further NW sheared out weaker further south and east. Been at least a couple years since Chicago area has seen this, and even longer for a true Gulf low to put good snows into Chicago. Would think we want that first storm to be warmer/west for a secondary to put us in the game. Than again my thoughts are purely historical experience. Normally I would agree with you. However, it appears that with this particular set up, the weaker the first storm has been coming in, the more wrapped up/amped the secondary low becomes, pushing it further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Nice shift west with the 12z GEM as well, including with mass fields. Stronger farther west wave and stronger more negatively tilted coupled upper jet. I've been thinking if the likely big dog unfortunately misses us, then the consolation prize would be a good IL side LES setup. Nice full fetch surface to 850 NNE flow. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Very much agree regarding the consolation prize. However, would be nice to get the synoptic snow and the lake enhancement that comes with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: lol, that would be a scraper to our southeast. I don't know but the eps always seems to be south and east of the OP on these type of systems. Ensembles will quite often run southeast of the operational run, especially at longer lead times but sometimes closer in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Man... that is A LOT of gulf moisture. Interested to see what happens here. Really like the consensus across the board with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro has been showing a decent clipper system for Sunday night/Monday that would end up impacting much of the sub. Looks pretty vigorous with widespread high ratio type snows. GFS shows the clipper as well, but not quite as impressive. Something to keep an eye on anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Gfs sure has abandoned the long-range torch idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Gfs sure has abandoned the long-range torch idea! Has no ensemble support though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The new GFS and GEM both show the above mentioned vigorous clipper Sunday night/Monday. Too early to dig into the ratio game, but if the system comes to fruition you'd think we'd have some pretty nice ratios to play with given the thermos. GFS even indicates a little trailing trowel-like feature which could greatly add to the totals verbatim. Just has the look of a clipper that could amp up in the final few days as we approach. Hope trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The new GFS and GEM both show the above mentioned vigorous clipper Sunday night/Monday. Too early to dig into the ratio game, but if the system comes to fruition you'd think we'd have some pretty nice ratios to play with given the thermos. GFS even indicates a little trailing trowel-like feature which could greatly add to the totals verbatim. Just has the look of a clipper that could amp up in the final few days as we approach. Hope trends continue. Looks like with the ratios playing a role in it could be a solid advisory event Sent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS trying to do the same thing as this system originally showed around day 10 per 12/18z runs. Not going to fall for that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 32 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: Looks like with the ratios playing a role in it could be a solid advisory event Sent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Yep. The models aren't spitting out crazy amounts of precip, but it won't take much of a bump in amounts to get us into the advisory area. Pretty potent vort, and relatively slow movement so this needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: GFS trying to do the same thing as this system originally showed around day 10 per 12/18z runs. Not going to fall for that again. You know what they say about throwing enough stuff at the wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 6:50 PM, michsnowfreak said: Gfs sure has abandoned the long-range torch idea! The mjo is about to run full throttle into phase 3...the torch will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: You know what they say about throwing enough stuff at the wall... That you have a lot of **** hit the floor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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