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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would bet on the 00z GFS coming at least a little west.  Trough axis is a bit west and the upstream energy heading into the Pac NW is also slower.

Looks like it got to south central KY and transferred to east TN and riding the apps at that point.

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2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Also at least for western OH appears to show a faster change to snow which lessens the ice.

It allows upper air temperatures to cool down for more frozen precipitation than ice. Overall great track for the Ohio/Michigan/Ontario and Upstate New York crew. 

 

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Luckily we have 5 days for that to adjust. Sort of seems odd to lock in a prolonged period of ZR NW of a rather strong and NE tracking low in this region, but there's definitely a signal for it.  I suppose December of 04 comes to mind a bit in terms of a similar SLP track that managed significant ice. 

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9 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Luckily we have 5 days for that to adjust. Sort of seems odd to lock in a prolonged period of ZR NW of a rather strong and NE tracking low in this region, but there's definitely a signal for it.  I suppose December of 04 comes to mind a bit in terms of a similar SLP track that managed significant ice. 

Yeah thought the same thing. Just doesn't seem right.

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I am going to cross post this from the banter thread because I do feel it needs to be in both spots:

Chicago and east are still in the game for sure, MKE might be stretching it. The worry would be the upstream kicker is there though. So this has a limitation as far as how west it can be. The upstream kicker is also a reason why we have a storm to begin with because it doesn't just slide out to sea, it buts against the ridging in the east which the storm gets kicked north. That is why even at 5 days there is a decent consensus as to where we are looking. Of course pieces can come in weaker, see the kicker/ridging but I'd have normal to higher confidence at this point.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro won't pull any shenanigans as far as losing the storm.  Probably a good chance it comes in west of the GFS/GEM given the comparisons at 96 hours.

Yes, a bit east once it gets this far north compared to 12z. Passes just a hair west of CLE to London Ontario vs going through Toledo and over my head on 12z run. More of a NE track which would make more sense.

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16 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Central Michigan running from South Bend to the Thumb gets 24-30" monster run and that is at a 15:1 ratio, which looks close given themos.

Monster run indeed.  Actual snow qpf is closing in on 2" in some areas.  A good chunk of IN/MI would be shut down.  A very nice hit in IL as well, even back toward Chicago.

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