Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

[buckeye]

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

That was actually east of the 0z Euro run. 0z tracked through the NW corner of OH.

I didn't realize that.  At least the UK looked almost perfect...possibly a tad too east.

[hlcater]

That Euro run is how to screw over E IA in 2 days 101.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I didn't realize that.  At least the UK looked almost perfect...possibly a tad too east.

your still chasing snow?

[Hoosier]

Straight NNE from there

[Hoosier]

Snow water equivalent map for kicks

[IWXwx]

Just wow. lol

[mimillman]

I think what was interesting about this Euro run is that is somewhat deemphasized the primary low in the northern plains, allowing the secondary to develop more than previous runs.

[CoalCityWxMan]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Snow water equivalent map for kicks

That’d be so bizzare, storms don’t track like that very often lol

[cyclone77]

15 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

That Euro run is how to screw over E IA in 2 days 101.

Would be sickening, but wouldn't surprise me lol.

[IWXwx]

6 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

That’d be so bizzare, storms don’t track like that very often lol

I think I remember that happening before, what was it, maybe '78?

[Jonger]

porn. pure porn.

[CoalCityWxMan]

2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I think I remember that happening before, what was it, maybe '78?

I guess we’re due then? 

[Snowstorms]

23 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I didn't realize that.  At least the UK looked almost perfect...possibly a tad too east.

Ukmet looked really good, see below; 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I think I remember that happening before, what was it, maybe '78?

Oh yes.  That one was even more extreme though as it went almost due north from northwest Georgia to west of Cleveland.

[mimillman]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Ukmet looked really good, see below; 

Ah yes, another way to **** Chicagoland. Pretty sure we have under 6" this year?

[IWXwx]

Eyebrows raised at IWX:

Lead impulse that ejects out late Wed-Thu from the central plains through the upper midwest allows low 
level baroclinic zone to advance ewd into the OH valley concurrently with srn stream wave ejection and 
offers a pathway for vigorous sfc low development through the ern OH valley late Fri into Sat. In fact 
recent composite GEM/EC runs and prior 00-06Z GFS indicate a very favorable nrn LA to nrn OH low track 
with major snow storm to its left across the cwa. Details still muddy but signals increasing along with
narrowing consensus. 

[iluvsnow]

The European ensembles put the average placement in West Virginia instead of NW Ohio.....still a lot to be decided...

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

I think what was interesting about this Euro run is that is somewhat deemphasized the primary low in the northern plains, allowing the secondary to develop more than previous runs.

yup.  I think the first low is key to what the follow up does.    Weaker first low, further west and strong second....vice versa.   I'm always skeptical of any model solution when you have two lows so closeley spaced like that.   

[mimillman]

13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yup.  I think the first low is key to what the follow up does.    Weaker first low, further west and strong second....vice versa.   I'm always skeptical of any model solution when you have two lows so closeley spaced like that.   

Completely agree. Only bright side is that it will make for a week of something interesting to track. We should get some more clarity come Wednesday once the primary is well underway.

[Snowstorms]

33 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

That is because the bulk of individual members don't have much. This is very much a operational fantasy so far.

Usually these secondary waves or LP's never work out. Need the right circumstances and pieces in order for them to come to fruition. Would be a big slap in our faces if it turns out to be a dud, lol. But thats nothing short of new. We'll get clearer picture by Tuesday. 

 

[Baum]

49 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Usually these secondary waves or LP's never work out. Need the right circumstances and pieces in order for them to come to fruition. Would be a big slap in our faces if it turns out to be a dud, lol. But thats nothing short of new. We'll get clearer picture by Tuesday. 

 

Pattern screams a bomb cyclogenisis somewhere in the Ohio valley/ Great Lakes before we transition to spring after January 15. 

[Hoosier]

Here is the problem on the GFS for the Chicago crowd.  On the image below, the surface low is in a fairly similar position to what the 12z Euro had.

 

But then look what happens a bit later. Too much of a kicker wave moving into the Plains, which serves to kick the system more northeast as opposed to NNE.

[Indystorm]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Oh yes.  That one was even more extreme though as it went almost due north from northwest Georgia to west of Cleveland.

Yep...coming up on forty year anniversary of the storm later this month. I presume you are referencing the Midwest Blizzard of Jan. 24-27, 1978.  I was here in Indy metro for that one, too.

[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I think I remember that happening before, what was it, maybe '78?

That one brought over 50 inches of snow to my area! A couple feet from the storm, and a couple feet from lake enhancement and lake effect!

[TugHillMatt]

59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here is the problem on the GFS for the Chicago crowd.  On the image below, the surface low is in a fairly similar position to what the 12z Euro had.

 

 

 

But then look what happens a bit later. Too much of a kicker wave moving into the Plains, which serves to kick the system more northeast as opposed to NNE.

 

Why is there ALWAYS a northern stream wave to screw things up? lol

[Hoosier]

00z NAM with a good look at the end of the run... would likely result in a good storm in parts of the sub if it went out farther.  

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM with a good look at the end of the run... would likely result in a good storm in parts of the sub if it went out farther.  

Yeah, the trough is still positive tilted at that point so it won't be west, the first piece would have some stuff though for western parts of the subforum. IA to the UP.

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah, the trough is still positive tilted at that point so it won't be west, the first piece would have some stuff though for western parts of the subforum. IA to the UP.

My main goal at this point is just to not lose the storm.  Somebody in this region needs a good hit from one of these.

[Snowstorms]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

My main goal at this point is just to not lose the storm.  Somebody in this region needs a good hit from one of these.

I think thats everyone minus Detroit 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

My main goal at this point is just to not lose the storm.  Somebody in this region needs a good hit from one of these.

Hoping things come together for a nice hit here towards the end of the week. Certainly looking like I am in a good spot, sitting at 31% average snowfall to date and something has to give eventually..